FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report 02/97

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MADAGASCAR

Area:

582 000 sq.km

Climate:

Eastern coast is tropical wet, the rest tropical wet-dry. Rains in October-March; tropical

cyclones.


Population:

15.24 million (1996 estimate); G.N.P. per caput: U.S.$ 240 (1993)

Specific characteristics of the country:

Low-income food-deficit country

Logistics:

Dilapidated roads and lack of spare parts and tyres

Major foodcrops:

Rice, roots, tubers, maize, fruit

Marketing year:

April/March; Lean season: February/March

Share of cereals in total calorie intake:

60 percent



CURRENT SITUATION

Widespread rains since November, covering most of the country favoured large plantings of the 1997 rice and coarse grains crops. However prospects remain uncertain as major producing areas in the south continue to be affected by heavy rains provoked by cyclones which may damage larges areas of crop land. The aggregate output of (milled) rice and coarse grains in 1995/96 is provisionally estimated at 1.85 million tons, which is above-average and reflects generally good rains during the main growing season.

The overall food supply situation remains satisfactory. As a result of a good 1995/96 harvest, the country is expected to cover most of its rice needs. The cereal import requirement for 1996/97 is estimated at 140 000 tons, to be covered mainly by commercial imports.

CEREAL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE FOR THE 1996/97 MARKETING YEAR (in thousand tons)

Wheat

Rice

Coarse grains

Total

Normal Production (rice in paddy terms)

7

2 476

152

2 635

Normal Imports

48

53

10

111

of which: Structural food aid

13

11

10

34

1996/97 Domestic Availability

10

1 675

165

1 850

1996 Production (rice in paddy terms)

10

2 511

165

2 686

1996 Production (rice in milled terms)

10

1 675

165

1 850

Possible stock drawdown

-

-

-

-

1996/97 Utilization

70

1 751

170

1 991

Food Use

69

1 595

117

1 781

of which: local purchase requirement

-

-

2

2

Non-food use

1

151

32

184

Exports or Re-exports

-

-

20

20

Possible stock build up

-

5

1

6

1996/97 Import Requirement

60

76

5

141

Anticipated commercial imports

45

70

-

115

Food aid needs

15

6

5

26

Current Aid Position





Food aid pledges

22

4

3

29

of which: Delivered

6

4

1

11

Donor-financed local purchases

-

-

2

2

Estimated Per Caput Consumption (kg/Year)

4

105

8

117

Indexes





1996 production as % of normal:




102

1996/97 import requirement as % of normal:




127

1996/97 food aid requirement as % of normal:




76


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