FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - March 1998:

SOMALIA

CURRENT SITUATION

Torrential rains in mid-October caused the worst floods in decades, resulting in an estimated 2 000 deaths, 250 000 displaced persons, serious damage to housing and infrastructure and crop and livestock losses.

The heavy rains adversely affected the 1997/98 secondary "Deyr" crops (from October to February), normally accounting for some 20 percent of the annual cereal production. Worst affected areas were the southern irrigated agricultural areas along the Juba and Shebelle rivers where crop losses were estimated up to 80 percent. With the recession of the water levels, extensive replanting took place from December and good crops are being obtained in some rainfed areas. However, for the country as a whole, the 1998 "Deyr"cereal production was estimated at 43 percent of the normal level .This is the fourth consecutive reduced harvest. The floods also resulted in losses of household cereal stocks from the 1997 main "Gu" season. Production of that season was also poor due to dry spells. The 1997/98 aggregate cereal production is estimated at 270 000 tons, around the poor level of last year. Import requirements for the 1997/98 marketing year (August/July) have been revised upward to 330 000 tons, of which only 220 000 tons are expected to be imported commercially, leaving a food gap of over 100 000 tons.

While the floods alone resulted in losses of livestock estimated at 35 500 animals, the outbreak of the Rift Valley Fever which has spread since October from north-eastern Kenya to southern areas of Somalia is reportedly causing large numbers of animals, mainly camels and goats. In addition, this has triggered a ban on imports of livestock and meat from the Gulf countries to where most of Somalia exports are directed. The ban will negatively affect the foreign exchange earning capacity of the country, and therefore the commercial import capacity, as well as the earnings and food security of large sections of population.