FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - March 1998:

SOUTH AFRICA

CURRENT SITUATION

Rainfall in late December and in January was abundant, covering most of the country. This provided much needed relief for crops, particularly in the northern and central parts of the country which received little rain in December and crop were severely stressed. Although the first dekad of February was marked by above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall at a time when about a third of the maize was coming into the critical pollination stage, better rains during the rest of the month and in early March have reduced concerns for the start of the much anticipated El Niño-induced dry period in this part of the sub-region. It is expected that the current high soil moisture reserves and the availability of irrigation water in commercial farming areas will help cushion the impact of a prolonged dry spell on crops in the next few weeks. Nonetheless, an extended drought and/or an early frost in the upcoming winter period could lead to a crop loss of some 10 to 20 percent compared to last year. The major impact would to seriously affect the country’s ability to export maize, particularly to countries in the sub-region.

Maize planting is officially estimated to be reduced by about 12 per cent, compared to last year, largely on account of reduced planting in several areas as a result of the drought warning and irregular rains, particularly in December. The subsequent first production estimate indicates a maize crop of 6.9 million tonnes, including 2.8 million tonnes of yellow maize for animal feed and 4.1 million tonnes of white maize, slightly above domestic consumption needs.