FAO/GIEWS: Africa Report - March 1998:

SUDAN

CURRENT SITUATION

The food supply in Southern Sudan gives serious cause for concern. The exacerbation of the civil conflict in January and February, particularly in the Barh al Ghazal region has resulted in fresh waves of displaced population aggravating an already precarious food situation following the 1997 drought reduced harvest. Cereal production in the South (excluding Renk) was estimated by an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in November/December 1997 to be down by 45 percent on the previous year. Eastern Equatoria, Lakes, Bahr El Jebel and Bahr El Ghazal, where the first season crop was lost due to the prolonged early drought, are the most affected States. The Mission also estimated that some 60 to 70 per cent of the population in Eastern Equatoria, Bahr El Ghazal, Lakes, parts of Jonglei state and the transitional zones will need emergency food assistance for three to six months in 1998. However, difficulties in transporting food aid by land due to insecurity and poor road conditions, as well as Government’s suspension on relief flights to southern parts during February, has meant that only limited quantities of assistance have reached the affected population. Prices of food have increased sharply. Deaths by starvation have been reported.

Elsewhere in the country prospects for the 1998 wheat crop, about to be harvested, are favourable reflecting good weather conditions. A decline in the area planted from last year level due to farmers’s financial difficulties and removal of wheat from marginal areas in irrigation schemes, is expected to be compensated by higher yields. Production is forecast similar of sligthly below the above-average level of 1997.

The FAO/WFP Mission in November/December 1997, forecast total cereal production at 4.64 million tonnes in 1997/98 comprising 3.39 million tonnes of sorghum, 0.57 million tonnes of millet, 0.63 million tonnes of wheat and a relatively small amount of maize (0.05 million tonnes) mainly produced in the South. Compared with last year’s record harvest, total cereal production is down by 14 percent, with sorghum 20 percent lower, millet 27 percent higher and wheat 2 percent down. Production of all three cereals is, however, above the five-year benchmark average of 1988/89-1992/93.

Although the total cereal output of 4.64 million tonnes is less than the total cereal consumption requirement for 1997/98, the overall food outlook for 1997/98 is favourable as a result of high carryover stocks of sorghum (estimated by the Mission at 900 000 tonnes).

However, in addition to the South, food deficit problems were anticipated by the Mission in North Darfur and North Kordofan. Overall, it is estimated that 915 500 persons affected by a reduced harvest will require 30 000 tonnes of food commodities, to be supplied through WFP, Nairobi. In addition, 34 000 tonnes of relief food assistance will be required for 1.3 million displaced people in the South, transitional zone and Khartoum displaced camps. In North Darfur, 180 000 people will require 9 530 tonnes of emergency food assistance between April and September 1998. A further 14 000 people affected by floods and civil conflict in southern Tokar may need 300 tonnes of food assistance for between three to six months.