3.01 The foregoing discussion of dairy imports into sub-Saharan Africa and their policy implications has left a number of questions unanswered: the impact of urbanization on dairy and food imports; differences in demand for fresh vs. recombined milk including their respective demand elasticities; the extent to which food aid substitutes or complements commercial dairy imports; and the question of how feasible dairy development alongside the "Operation Flood" concept could be for sub-Saharan African countries amongst others. All these issues should be of considerable interest to policy-makers as a basis for their decisions. However, the ability of any analysis to put the decision-maker in a position to foresee the impacts of his policy, depends on two basic requirements: the availability of sound information and, second, a synchronization of the researcher's contribution and the policy-maker's expectations. These two conditions are obviously linked to each other and will be discussed below with special regard to research on dairy import policies.
The Information Problem
3.02 The most crucial set of statistical data is that of domestic dairy prices. The close monitoring of a selected sample of markets gives an indication of the success or failure of any policy and enables researchers to advise on any necessary changes. The central role of prices in directing milk production, consumption and imports makes the improvement of price statistics a top priority. Dairy production data are also of great importance but are very unreliable at present. To improve production data is technically and organisationally more difficult than spotting prices. It would be an improvement to monitor the national herds more closely and supplement this by systematic analysis of the changes in animal productivity in some of the major production areas. As with prices, the survey emphasis is on continuity rather than absolute completeness. An improvement in these two areas, i.e. time series for dairy prices and milk production, would yield a high return to the effort and would represent a significant step forward in policy research and formulation.
The Congruence Problem
3.03 Most economists are committed to the idea and assumptions of the neo-classical theory. However, their perception of a 'welfare-enhancing' policy may be regarded as useless by policy-makers because the economist uses an overall social welfare criterion whereas the politician may pursue very different targets. The question is how to merge these sometimes conflicting attitudes. Does the economist have to bend to the policy-maker's wishes which then effectively render his work superfluous? Or should it be the other way around? A first step in the right direction is the clear definition of the objectives the politician pursues. One aim of the policy research must then be to provide the decision-maker with the relative welfare costs of his present or planned policies. To give an example, a government should know that the present import tariff on dairy products while raising revenues of say, $ 50 million poses a burden of $ 200 million on consumers' welfare while benefiting producers by only $ 75 million, i.e. it leads to an overall welfare loss. The policy research would then have to present the same calculation for policy alternatives, e.g. tariff changes, and to confront the policy-maker with the costs and benefits of the choices available.
3.04 The above argument is based on the understanding that the relationship between policy and research will always be unequal. Research has to serve policy by providing information about costs and benefits of certain policies and their alternatives rather than presenting one 'optimal' solution. Thus, the inherent claim of the researcher, to know better than the politician what might be good for the country or not, should be excluded. This paper, in conclusion, argues that there are a number of dairy import policies in sub-Saharan African countries that may have to be changed. Policy research will have to provide the basic information and policy-makers will have to decide according to their objectives. Both sides should take this to be a challenge for cooperation.
