Summary
This chapter reviews the impacts of the 1983-84 drought on the Borana production system and outlines key tactics that households used in response to drought. A secondary objective is to highlight the effects of another drought in 1990-91 and interpret cattle population dynamics observed from 1982 to 1991 within an ecological framework of density-independent or density-dependent regulation of population size. Most of the empirical findings in this chapter are consistent with those in the literature on drought responses of pastoral populations in East Africa.
The 1983-84 drought was driven by rainfall deficits during four consecutive wet seasons over two years. Most research was conducted by monitoring five encampments in the central zone (i.e. lower semi-arid) where drought impacts were most severe. In terms of livestock management, an early response to the first failure of the long rains in April 1983 was to shift the ratio of resident herds to satellite herds from 71:29 to 34:66, respectively, within seven months. Many of the satellite herds (consisting of hardy immatures, dry cows and males) moved from central zones to drough-treserve areas at the periphery of the central plateau during the first year. These reserves were characterised either by an improved forage base plus reliable deep wells (as in the Web region) or by flushes of forage production stimulated by more frequent rainfall at higher elevations (as to the north of Did Hara).
Once these reserves were depleted, satellite herds began to endure higher rates of loss and moved off the central plateau during the second year to secure grazing in the southern Ethiopian highlands and northern Kenya. The net result was a reduction in cattle density in the study area on the order of 50% by 1985. patterns for other livestock species are less well documented. Sheep and goat flocks may have travelled extensively in some situations during the drought, but overall they appeared to maintain their population densities in most locales compared to cattle during the drought. The small camel population appeared to increase during the drought by 45% and this was probably due to migration from adjacent regions.
The main effect of the drought on the production system was deminished cow nutrition due to reduced forage production. Compared to a dry season in an average rainfall year, the acute effects of the 1983-84 drought reduced daily milk offtake to an average household by 92% (i.e. from five litres/family per day to 416 ml/family per day). Eighty per cent of this decline was caused by a drop in calving rate from 75 to 9%, with the remainder contributed by a drop in daily offtake per lactating cow from 500 to 260 ml. However, a minor part of this milk deficit was made up by small ruminants at Borana encampments, as 60% of 200 female goats and 50% of 113 female sheep were lactating during the height of the drought.
Considered overall, human diets, normally dominated by cow's milk (55%) and cereals (32%) on a gross energy basis sufficient for maintenance and growth in average rainfall years, shifted to a situation during the drought in which cereals dominated (52%) compared to milk (14%) and meat and blood combined (2%), with an average per capita caloric deficit of 27%. Reported duration of acute hunger was 32 months from August 1983 to April 1986. People compensated for reduced food production by: (1) giving priority to young children to receive milk; (2) shifting diet composition for other age groups to include more cereals, meat and blood to accomodate the needs of children; (3) reducing the size and frequency of meals for adults and older youths; and (4) sending the elderly or other volunteers to famine relief camps as a last resort. Roughly 27% of surveyed households in 60 encampments changed location during the drought, but there was no evidence of mass migration. The general impression was that most people attempted to stay in one place and wait out the drought. Maize, sorghum, enset (Ensete ventacosum) and sugar were sources of food energy in the surveyed regions. Gathered bush foods (bulbs, fruits, gum and roots) assumed greater importance during the drought but still represented opportunistic sources of nutrients rather than staples. Hunting was not important. Cattle hides were reportedly boiled and eaten in some instances. Famine relief did not occur until late 1985 and thus was largely unimportant during the two years of low rainfall (i.e. 1983-84). Human diets began to improve rapidly with the onset of average rainfall in April 1985. Although morbidity in the human population was widespread during the drought, surveys indicated that the incidence of drought-induced mortality was low (i.e. <5%). About 18% of the population had moved to famine relief camps by 1985. In a survey of 48 families in the upper semi-arid zone, most families reported birth during the drought, suggesting that the human population grew, although it did so more slowly than normal.
Besides dramatic declines in milk production, the other major effect of the drought was to reduce pastoral terms of trade by 90%. Pre-drought prices of EB 1.00 per kilogram of live weight for cattle declined to EB 0.30 by 1984. This was mirrored by an increase in maize prices from EB 0.40 per kilogram to EB 1.00 over the same time. Other important consumer goods and livestock species increased or decreased in price accordingly. Cereals were thus commonly available in markets, but their high cost relative to livestock cost reduced effective demand. Low livestock prices resulted from high supply and low demand, particularly in the second drought year. The strategy of families during the first year may have been to sell the same number of animals as in average rainfall years, but to use more of the income to purchase food grains (i.e. 66% versus 30% of income used to buy food). In contrast to the first year, animal offtake rates probably increased markedly in the second drought year in response to a much greater need for food. Although cattle were often reported to have been sold to buy grain near the end of the drought, livestock were not always mentioned as the most important sources of income. A pert-urban sample of 48 pastoral households in the upper semi-arid zone revealed that milk, household utensils, firewood and other bush commodities were more important than livestock as frequent sources of income. Credit was not available from merchants for food purchases. Temporary employment as labourers was secured by members of 27% of 43 pert-urban households in the upper semi-arid zone.
Loss of assets due to drought was high. Monitored cattle herds experienced a net loss on the order of 60% (N = 4143), with 42% lost to mortality 14% to sale and 4% to slaughter. Losses occurred differentially depending on age and sex class. Researches hypothesise that cattle mortality occurs in distinct waves over time, with the most productive cows perishing earlier on. Cattle losses ranged from 40 to 90% of immatures, 45% of mature cows and 22% of mature males. Immatures were vulnerable owing to lack of milk and low mobility. Milking cows were vulnerable because of their higher nutritional requirements and the tendency to keep them nearer to overused encampment areas. Mature males were less vulnerable because of their general hardiness and high mobility. They were commonly sold to purchase grain. Small ruminants (N = 788) experienced a 16% mortality rate, with 15% sold and 7% slaughtered. Net reduction in this population throughout the drought was minimal, however, because births tended to balance losses. A survey of 96 Borana and Gabra households in the upper semi-arid zone indicated that the effects of ethnic group and household wealth were important factors in mitigating asset losses. Poor households tended to have lower producing cows than wealthier households. Poor Borana and Gabra households lost 52% of their cattle compared with 28% for wealthy households due to higher rates of mortality sales and slaughter. Poor Gabra lost over 60% of their camels compared to an average of 40% for other Gabra wealth classes. There was thus no evidence that camels were any less susceptible to drought than cattle in terms of mortality in this instance. Key advantages in having camels, however, may lie more in terms of persistence of milk production for home consumption, and sale and use of male camels for transporting grain. Interviews in the upper semi-arid zone suggested that on average at the height of the drought, cows yielded a milk offtake of 140 ml/head per day over a lactation period of six months, while camels yielded 770 ml/head per day over nine months. The overall pattern of livestock use during drought suggests that animals were not held for quick disposal or sale during times of stress. Instead, they appear to be assets that are held as long as possible in anticipation of improving conditions. Families are apparently willing to undergo great hardship before they are forced to sell animals. This behaviour has significant implications for exacerbating the effects of drought on the population.
Owing to favourable rainfall from 1985 onwards, the mature-cow component of the regional herd had probably recovered in terms of numbers and productivity by 1989 (or even earlier); thus the impact of the 1983-84 drought was six years overall. Opportunistic cultivation of cereals by pastoralists during 1985-89 was an important means to ameliorate hunger, as were emergency feeding programs during 1985-87. However, deficient rainfall in 1990-91 again resulted in large losses of livestock, hardship for pastoralists and re-initiation of famine-relief activities. The cattle production system seems remarkably resilient, but density-dependent factors increasingly have negative effects on livestock populations and human welfare. In terms of cattle performance, the Borana system thus appears to be an equilibrial production system in which increased stocking rates raise the risk of negative impacts on animal mortality rates and productivity. A hypothesis is forwarded that the apparent increased frequency and severity of drought on the Borana Plateau is ultimately a consequence of the high and unsustainable density of people, and not a changing rainfall pattern. Traditional drought reserves are probably being increasingly compromised during rainfall years as a result of overflow human settlement and unregulated grazing. Opportunities for widespread dispersal of stock during drought are also becoming more limited as a result of general population increases in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya. The human condition on the Borana Plateau has recently been disrupted further by weapons proliferation, ethnic clashes and marketing interruptions culminating from the demise of the previous government in 1990. Ethnic clashes, in part, are probably attributable to competition for increasingly scarce grazing and water resources.
