1 The participants in this group were: K Peters (Chairman); R Behnke (Rapporteur); O Badiane; B M Bakar; P N de Leeuw; S Ehui; A Lahlou-Kassi; S C Nana-Sinkam; T L Nordblom; P Oram; E O Oyedipe; B Toutain; R T Wilson; T Williams
2 Working groups were assigned three tasks. Task One was to review changes that have taken place in the supply and demand for livestock products over the last 30 years, including directions in input use, resource management and degradation and to identify the underlying factors causing these changes such as macroeconomic policies, institutional factors, trade, urbanization and population growth. The output was expected to contribute to a report on past and present directions in livestock productivity and consumption of livestock products as part of a forward looking 2020 vision paper to be produced later
Sub-Saharan Africa
The discussion opened with a debate on how to deal with regional diversity. A grouping of countries by agroecological zones was suggested but some felt a need to get closer to factors driving system changes such as population density and growth, the overall economic situation and the livestock feed situation. It was agreed that development prospects and not just the ecological base must be taken into account in setting research objectives. In addition, a pure ecoregional breakdown is crosscut by economic development indicators such as the contribution of the agricultural sector or livestock subsector to GDP. Generally low incomes across sub-Saharan Africa, however, make clustering by economic indicators less informative than it might otherwise be.
General trends
Trends have been away from extensive and mobile range systems towards more intensive and sedentary small holder agropastoral and mixed farming systems in respect of both large and small ruminants. Livestock numbers are increasing in the wetter areas and decreasing in drier areas because transhumant herders have moved south and settled while local farmers have incorporated ruminants into their fanning systems. Small ruminant numbers have increased relative to cattle over the last decade in West Africa.
Research, extension and agricultural education
Some data are available on research and extension funding, human resource situations and levels of training but there is no political lobby or domestic constituency for long term agricultural research programmes. This problem is especially acute in sub-Saharan Africa. Structural adjustment has improved the receptivity and visibility of policy research but budget cuts associated with structural adjustment have had a negative effect. Linkages between research and extension are generally poor. Vocational training and farmer education requires strengthening although some countries such as Kenya and Nigeria have made a start. The demand for and supply of various kinds and levels of training need analysis. The use to which people are put after training also needs to be clarified.
Resource management and degradation
It is not possible to state a trend until a workable definition of degradation is agreed. One participant considered soil nutrient depletion an important criterion. If this is accepted degradation on cropped lands may be serious but will be much less so on grazing lands. Awareness of natural resource management problems is improving (especially in national research organizations) and there are now some good case studies of local community land management. NGO interest in this area is high but their effectiveness is unpredictable because they have no appropriate technical knowledge.
Policy impacts
Devaluation of the CFA franc in January 1994 had both positive and negative impact on livestock production. It had a negative effect on high input, intensive, import dependent systems but favours systems based on domestic natural resources. Some apparently negative impacts of devaluation may be necessary corrections of policy induced distortions. Anti-agricultural trade, marketing and exchange rate policies have begun to change. These reforms have already had an effect on trade [see paper by Williams et al in these Proceedings]. It is hoped to see production responses and not escalating prices. Badly conceived domestic sectoral and trade policies can offset the benefits of devaluation.
In East and Southern Africa the contradictory objectives under which parastatals operated - they were obliged to make a profit while simultaneously serving consumer and producer interests - thwarted performance.
Correlations between land tenure reform and changes in agricultural output are weak in sub-Saharan Africa. Other constraints to better agricultural performance are more important than deficiencies in land laws.
West Asia and North Africa
General trends
Livestock product supply in WANA is generally well below demand. Most countries are net importers of livestock products with subsidies for local producers. It is not wise to generalize, however, and Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria have different policies for the import of milk powder with the last being a massive importer. Sudan and Turkey are the exceptions to the general pattern of import dependence.
Socio-economic and development indicators
Income growth is suggested as a useful criterion of economic development with respect to livestock. The share of GDP derived from agriculture is good [information on changes in input use, population, literacy, life expectancy, importation of livestock feeds and some aspects of macroeconomic policy relevant to livestock are in Nordblom et al in these Proceedings].
Policy issues
Turkey, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia are committed to or attempting to implement structural adjustment programmes whereas Libya, Syria, Iraq and Iran are resisting them. In general, however, there is continuing devolution from the public to the private sector.
Rangeland tenure policies vary by country although there has been a genera') trend towards privatization. Government has asserted its authority on tenure in Syria and tribal authority has been rescinded: unfortunately nothing has taken its place and there is now de facto open access. Jordan supports tribal authorities in control over animal movement but some problems are emerging with urbanization and privatization of rangeland. Large scale invasion of rangeland by olive and barley cultivation is occurring in Tunisia where the government is about to set up a new commission to study land allocation in low rainfall areas. A new land law is about to be promulgated in Morocco where an attempt to set up communes with territories which overlapped or cut across old tribal territorial boundaries resulted in ambiguity and conflict. The respective responsibilities of the Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform and of the Ministry of the Interior also cause confusion.
Most WANA countries have been through politically motivated land reforms that have been variously effective but which have usually involved the breakup of large holdings. Many holdings are now uneconomically small and fragmentation is a serious problem. It is difficult to rectify this situation as it still is not easy to sell land in many countries. Large state owned livestock operations have usually failed and land is being transferred to the private sector.
There are production quotas for several critical crops but movement and sales controls are now being removed from parastatal institutions. In many countries, however, fertilizer and machinery sales and distribution remain the purview of government.
The impact of irrigation on livestock production differs with the type of irrigated farming system, of which there are several in WANA. The primary effect is through fodder crop production and the use of crop residues [data on fodder and residue use are to be found in Nordblom et al in these Proceedings but no distinction is made between the contribution of irrigated and rainfed agriculture].
Credit
Availability of credit has promoted livestock production.
Research, extension and agricultural education
Extension services are weak in technology transfer and often serve as state agricultural police. There are some signs of improvement especially in the Maghreb. Expenditure on agricultural research in relation to GDP is low. There has been a major increase in literacy in the last 20 years but this is still low by western standards.
Infrastructure and marketing
Roads and railways are generally better in WANA than in sub-Saharan Africa. There are regional organizations and some potential for regional market integration in the Maghreb and the Gulf states but there is generally not much current activity.
3 Task Two was to identify the key goals and opportunities for livestock development in the next 25 years and by major agroecological zones and to identify the major social, economic, environmental, technical, policy and institutional constraints to achieving these goals. The expected output was a clear statement of defined goals and opportunities for livestock development that can realistically be achieved by 2020 and a related description of the set of concerns and constraints that must be overcome for the goals to be achieved
Sub-Saharan Africa
Development prospects over the next 25 years
In general these seem bleak without fundamental policy reform and technical innovation
In the arid pastoral zone beyond the limits of cultivation (excluding irrigation) the human carrying capacity can be increased through trade.
The importance of small ruminants is likely to increase with increasing population pressure and declining farm size in the semiarid zone. There are large concentrations of cattle in this zone but no commensurate level of milk production. There is potential for increased dairy production but appropriate policies are required. Some fattening operations can be expected to develop where feed is available.
There are prospects for both expansion and intensification in the subhumid zone. Cattle will take precedence over small ruminants but the livestock product output mix will depend on prices. As there is little demand for animal traction in root cropping systems there are fewer possibilities for integration of livestock except for feed and labour use. There is potential for expanded maize production and for its increased use as animal feed. Greater areas of crops will have a negative impact on migratory livestock producers in this zone who will tend to settle. Tsetse flies will decline in importance as cultivation spreads and Bos indicus zebu cattle will assume more importance at the expense of the trypanotolerant Bos taurus types.
In the humid zone it is likely that crop-livestock integration will be limited to economic links. Poultry and pig production is likely to expand. There is no cultural attachment to livestock, especially ruminants, and the disease challenge is high but there is good potential if the considerable health and management problems can be overcome. The main consuming areas are in the humid zone which therefore has a comparative advantage for final fattening near urban areas but there will be a need to control any possible environmental pollution.
There are possible resource degradation problems in semiarid and subhumid East Africa. Crop areas are reduced here because of bimodal rainfall. Soils are better than in West Africa so nutrient depletion is less of a risk but slope and wind erosion may be problems. The bimodal rainfall pattern allows pastoralism to penetrate deeper into relatively high rainfall areas. Subhumid lowlands in Tanzania, Mozambique and Angola have low population density and high potential if tsetse problems can be overcome. Civil war has been a problem for many years. Root crops are expanding in these areas which may limit integration possibilities. There is potential for intensive livestock production in Zimbabwe and for small scale pigs and poultry in Southern Africa in general.
The highland areas can be considered as a series of subzones. In the "roots and beans" highlands of Rwanda, Burundi and eastern Zaïre the demand for livestock products is limited by low purchasing power of consumers and continued civil strife is a problem. In the Kenya "dairy" highlands land is the scarcest production factor but further specialization in the vicinity of urban areas can be expected. Dairy production may then be squeezed out of these areas, but total milk output is likely to remain constant as dairy production shifts to more peripheral areas. Temperature is the limiting factor at high altitudes in the "grain" highlands of Ethiopia where extensive sheep grazing predominates. There are prospects for more efficient sheep production through fattening. Dairy production is likely to replace the oxen/cereal system at middle altitudes as farm sizes become smaller.
Areas of concern and key constraints
The major causes for concern are general matters of security at the local level, especially those between pastoralists and crop farmers over crop damage and competition for scarce resources, and civil war on a wider scale. Human health problems and imperfections in the marketing system are additional problems. Concerns about animal welfare and the environment will assume increasing importance as will the various policy and institutional constraints that have been covered during the course of this Roundtable.
West Asia and North Africa
General goals
A major goal is to exploit the comparative advantage presented to livestock by crop residues and native pastures and the integration of forage crops, feed grains and agroindustrial by-products in livestock diets. Nutritional management of small ruminants should be improved to avoid feed wastage and to make better economic use of animal genetic potential. Expansion of meat, dairy and poultry production based on domestic and imported feed grains and agroindustrial by-products should take place where there is a comparative advantage in so doing
Constraints
Distortions in exchange rates prevent a clear view of the real benefits to be gained from comparative advantages. The institutional framework for the most appropriate management of rangelands is missing.
Development prospects over the next 25 years
The West Asia and North Africa region is the biggest importer of livestock and livestock products in the world. It will remain dependent on imports - and will be a major potential market for sub-Saharan Africa -for the foreseeable future. It is not clear whether or not intensification will have a negative impact on the natural resource base. If rangeland output is to be increased above current levels more appropriate institutional arrangements are needed. There are prospects for intensifying existing mixed farming systems through the use of external feed resources and forage crops. Intensive horticulture may, however, compete with intensive livestock production for capital and scarce natural resources.
Role of the livestock subsector
There is considerable potential for increased milk production if suitable policies are put in place. More intensive production will increase the absolute value of livestock output but livestock's contribution to GDP may show some decline.
Goals for the livestock subsector
These should be to exploit comparative advantages and to remove policies that act against these advantages.
Areas of concern and key constraints
There is no unused land and no possibility of horizontal expansion. Increases in output must come through intensification and larger irrigated areas.
4 Task Three was to identify the appropriate strategies for the goals identified in Task Two, including actions on-and off-farm at the national level and at regional and international levels, in order to improve livestock production and the research and development implications of these actions. As far as possible the temporal, spatial and social implications of these actions were to be indicated. The expected output was a clear formulation of the measures required for achieving better management of the natural resource base to 2020
Sub-Saharan Africa
Low potential areas: Arid and part of bimodal rainfall semiarid zones
There is some need for development and employment of both existing and new technology but policy and institutional factors are of much more importance.
High potential areas with good development opportunities: Semiarid and subhumid zones and part of highlands
All of the technology policy and institutional spheres are in need of very strong support and returns to investment in these areas should be very high.
High potential areas with poor development opportunities: Part of highlands with high population densities
All of the technology, policy and institutional spheres are in need of strong support. Returns to investment in these areas should be reasonably high.
Agribusiness
There is little need for technology or institutional support but the policy area needs clarification.
West Asia and North Africa
Arid zones (< 200 mm): Range and pastoral mountain systems
In terms of technology focus known techniques should be used to arrest degradation and possibly to increase productivity. These techniques include resting, rotational grazing, use of shrubs and the application of phosphate fertilizers. There is also a need for better characterization of rangeland areas and their potential under various management regimes.
Under the heading of policy requirements there is a need for clarification of property rights and steps must be taken to establish appropriate communal or private management systems. There will probably be more privatization in the long term.
There is typically weak institutional capacity at the national level and political and legal issues are not well understood. The potential for social conflict requires mediation and interministerial collaboration. Partnerships between IARCs and NARS on strategic issues related to short and longer term interactions between technology and policy are essential to the development of sustainable management.
Semiarid zones (200-450 mm): Cereal-legume mixed farming
These main crop-livestock zones are currently dominated by wheat and barley. The technology focus on the introduction of legumes, and especially forage legumes, has had limited success. Adoption rates for seed and fertilizer technology for barley production have been low. Sheep are the key enterprise on many farms. The main focus should be on economic integration for the optimal nutritional management of small ruminants.
Policy must focus on integration of cereals and legumes with small ruminants. Strategic research is needed on price-subsidy relations, structural adjustment, comparative advantage and factor availability. The impact of changes to support policies for wheat or livestock, barley and forage systems must be taken into account as must that of rising labour costs.
The institutional capacity of NARS must be strengthened. Governments provide too little funding to research and must allow NARS to assume greater responsibility. The effort devoted to management and nutrition of small ruminants should be increased to bring it in better balance with existing efforts on animal breeding and veterinary services. There is a need for more coordination of technology and socioeconomic and policy research. IARCs must work together on policy, trade, price and factor availability issues to balance long term strategies against social disfunctions due to sudden policy changes.
Subhumid zones (450-1200 mm)
Irrigated areas are a small proportion of the total cultivated area. This is the zone of greatest land use diversity with emphasis on winter wheat, horticulture and industrial crops. It is also the main area for agribusinesses in the form of intensive dairy, feedlot and poultry enterprises. Migratory sheep flocks enter the zone to graze stubbles, fallows and by-products.
Long term technology issues are partly related to the management, scarcity and competition for water in and among sectors and states. There is potential pollution of the environment by agroindustries and feedlots. The implications of rapid population growth and urbanization on labour availability and the type of enterprise or system are important. Current technology and knowledge is adequate for short term management of resources through NARS. There appears to be no major need for IARC involvement.
In the policy area there is a need for greater emphasis on strategic issues affecting resource use and on the price, trade and input policies affecting the choice of enterprises. Attention must also be given to import and export issues and to markets for horticultural products within the GATT framework and in the European Union and the Gulf states. The scope for integrating crops and livestock within and across ecozones and farming systems and within existing land use patterns must be further defined.
The institutional needs relate to:
· integration of livestock with crops and rangeland across systems;· inadequate links between research and extension for technology transfer and evaluation of impact, farmer preferences, social issues and feedback to policy;
· the need to develop effective mechanisms for people participation in improved range production and to determine preferences for technology elsewhere;
· encouragement of appropriate privatization of services while considering who should do strategic research on major animal diseases;
· seed deficits; and
· macroeconomic distortion.
Highland areas
Cold winters and transhumant livestock management compound technology problems.
Integration with the remainder of the region to assist trade and poor infrastructure in remote areas are important areas of policy concern.
Low literacy levels and poor uptake of technology are among the institutional problems in mountain areas.
