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Appendix 4. Ethiopia: Estimate of livestock in the SAZ

Ethiopia's livestock population is one of the largest in Africa. It is also a country of great ecological complexity owing to steep altitudinal gradients and a wide range of moisture conditions. Farming systems are correspondingly diverse (Westphal, 1975: Getahun, 1980; Sisaye, 1980). The SAZ of Ethiopia, as defined by the 75- and 180-day growing period isolines, is convoluted in pattern and closely related to altitude (Figures 1 & 2). While the importance of the Highland Zone to the livestock economy receives adequate recognition, the relative importance of the SAZ is not clearly defined.

The LGP isolines for Ethiopia have been mapped at a scale of 1:1M in a study of the land resources of Ethiopia by UNDP/FAO (1984a). This allows an estimation of the percentage of each province falling within each of the following classes:

> 180 growing days (Highland or Subhumid) 179-75 growing days (Semiarid)
< 75 growing days (Arid)

Where significant areas of cultivated land occur in the Arid Zone (principally in Eritrea), these areas have been added to the SAZ for the purpose of the estimation.

Livestock statistics for Ethiopia (1976-77) have been compiled in a statistical compendium for land use planning (UNDP/FAO 1982). These figures have been converted to livestock units (LUs) for each province using the following equivalents:

(camel 1.0)
cattle 0.7
sheep 0.1
goats 0.1
horses 0.8
mules 0.7
asses 0.5

The densities of livestock in the three LGP zones are assumed, on the basis of data obtained from low level aerial surveys (Watson et al., 1971, 1973a, 1973b), to vary in the following ratio:

1.5 Highland
1.0 Semi-arid
0.3 Arid

Finally it is assumed that the data, which are for the 1970s, provide a reliable guide to the distribution of livestock in 1990. Adequate information is not available for testing this assumption.

Accordingly the distribution of livestock in the three LGP zones is estimated as follows:

Province

Livestock ('000 LUs)

<75 days

75-179

>180 days

(Arid)

(Semi-Arid)

(Highland)

Arsi

0

76

1557

Bale

251

439

479

Eritrea

273

532

13

Gamo Gofa

0

127

430

Gojam

0

381

1425

Gonder

0

567

1083

Harerge

371

174

362

Ilulabor

0

0

517

Kefa

0

48

1049

Shewa

47

405

4350

Sidamo

244

874

1738

Tigray

446

1058

47

Welega

0

64

1312

Welo

404

1160

484

Total

2036

5905

14846

Percent

8.9

25.9

65.2

The SAZ of Ethiopia contains about 26 per cent of the livestock population (LUs) of the country.

Data are also available for the rural population (1978), size of households, total cultivated area (including fallows) and grazing area (with forest). By assuming constant ratios between rural population (or households) total cultivated areas, and livestock, it would be possible to estimate the distribution of these variables by LGP zone. These assumptions are more questionable, and so this is not attempted here.


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