1. Amidst the prospects of prolonged food shortages in Nigeria, scholars are beginning to investigate the causes of and the cures for food shortage. Some are looking into the techniques of production, others are looking into the methods of processing, preservation, farm ownership or management systems, while still others are investigating government policies and programmes. Government policies are increasingly being recognized as a major factor affecting the performance of the agricultural sector in many African countries. In the livestock sector, one area, among several others, which has become a major concern is the dramatic rise in the value and volume of dairy imports into sub-Saharan Africa over the last two decades. And Nigeria holds a prominent position in the development of dairy imports. The purpose of this paper is to look into some of the causes contributing to the situation in Nigeria. These are explained by the constraints which affect domestic milk production and policies which seem to have specifically influenced dairy imports over the past 10 to 20 years.
2. The first part of the paper provides a brief background on the overall patterns of agricultural and livestock production, dairy imports, domestic milk production as well as milk consumption. The second part discusses some of the constraints impeding the growth of domestic milk production. The third part explores the policy objectives which have emerged from a number of actions taken by the Nigerian Government over the years as well as the import policy instruments employed to achieve these objectives. Part four discusses the likely effects of the policy instruments including the effect of increased domestic production on imports of different dairy products into Nigeria. Part five, on the other hand, assesses the likely effects of dairy imports policy on domestic milk production and uses two examples of policy options available to the government to discuss possible outcomes in qualitative terms. A brief discussion based on a preliminary quantitative estimate of the effect of several variables on domestic milk production is also included in this part. Part six considers the important question of comparative advantage and provides a preliminary assessment of Nigeria's position with regard to domestic milk production. The conclusion draws attention to the real option available to the government of the basis of the findings discussed earlier.
