3. From 1960, the year of independence, to 1984, Nigeria's population is estimated to have increased from 57.8 million to 93.0 million or at an average rate of growth of 2.5% per annum. But as shown in Table 1, the index of staple food production as well as that of aggregate agricultural production has been on the decline from a base year of 1975. Although the index of livestock production has risen above the base year value, with the exception of 1981 and 1983, the average rate of increase of about 1.5% per annum shows that the rate of growth in per caput production has been negative.
Table 1. Index of Agricultural Production, 1975-1983 (1975 = 100)
|
|
Staple Crops |
Livestock Index |
Aggregate |
|
1975 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
1976 |
88.7 |
103.7 |
93.9 |
|
1977 |
75.7 |
106.0 |
88.7 |
|
1978 |
70.8 |
109.3 |
88.5 |
|
1979 |
64.4 |
113.4 |
87.2 |
|
1980 |
67.6 |
117.1 |
89.4 |
|
1981 |
71.6 |
94.2 |
90.1 |
|
1982 |
73.8 |
104.4 |
92.5 |
|
1983 |
63.5 |
99.3 |
83.8 |
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria. Annual Report and Statement of Accounts (several years).
4. According to David-West (1978), milk consumption per caput in Nigeria ranged from 5 to 10 kg between 1974 and 1976. The Federal Ministry of Planning (1975) estimated that aggregate milk supply (i.e. domestic production plus net imports) was 600,000 tons (in whole milk equivalent) in 1975 or about 6.6 kg per caput. Current estimates (Nwoko, 1985a) put the aggregate milk supply in 1983 at 1.12 million metric tons equivalent to 12.4 kg per caput. More recent studies estimate that per caput consumption of milk increased at an annual rate of 6.3% between 1973 and 1981 (von Massow, 1984). In the face of negative per caput domestic production, Nigeria has therefore filled the gap between consumption and production by ever increasing imports (mainly commercial) of dairy products.
5. In 1980 the value of Nigeria's net imports of dairy products constituted 42% of the total value of sub-Saharan Africa's net dairy imports, and 73% of the value of Nigeria's net imports of milk and meat. At current prices, Nigeria's value of net imports increased by 1174% between 1970 and 1981 while the quantity of imports (whole milk equivalent) increased by 818% during the same period (FAO).
6. In Nigeria, marketed supplies of milk come mainly from three sources: indigenous Fulani herdsman, government dairies, and private milk reconstituting plants. Partly due to a poor milk collection system including low producer prices, and partly due to the segregated nature of the urban market (see later in the paper), up to 90% of the fresh milk produced by the Fulani herdsman does not find its way into the milk processing plants. Consequently, the market for traditionally produced (Fulani) fresh milk is highly localized with surplus milk being sold either directly to consumers as fresh milk in markets near the source of production or converted into butter or sour milk or clarified butter fat or ghee.
7. Some government milk processing plants get part of their fresh milk supply from government dairies and some collect milk from local producers. While milk production from government dairies is insignificant (see later in the paper), milk collection from local producers is constrained by the limited number of milk processing plants in relation to the size and number of milk catchment areas. According to Obi (1983) there were only 11 government milk processing plants in 1983, and most of these have resorted to processing imported powdered milk rather than collecting domestically produced fresh milk (Nwoko, 1986). Also paradoxically, most of these state-owned plants operate at between 2040% of their capacity (World Bank, 1981).
8. Private milk processing plants are mainly engaged in recombining imported powdered milk for distribution to urban consumers. The high cost of collecting fresh milk, the poor state of rural roads as well as the seasonality of supply seem to be major factors for this and for the government milk plants preferring reconstituting imported powdered milk to processing domestically produced fresh milk (CARD, 1981).
9. For these as well as for other reasons which will be discussed shortly, the performance of domestic milk production in Nigeria has been very poor. With the increasing volume of imports, the rate of self-sufficiency (i.e. domestic milk production to total consumption) declined over the years. Table 2 shows the estimates of the rate of self-sufficiency calculated under three assumptions of milk yield per cow (Nwoko, 1985a). The last column of Table 2 also presents the rate of self-sufficiency based on FAO milk yield data ranging from 180 kg (1970) to 290 kg (1983).
10. From the table one can see that the self-sufficiency ratio has sharply declined over the years irrespective of which yield assumption we used. This can be attributed to a number of technical constraints on domestic production as well as to some policy factors affecting both domestic production and the import of dairy products into Nigeria.
Table 2. Estimates of Self-Sufficiency in Milk Production (1970-1983).
|
Year |
Dairy |
Self-Sufficiency Ratio |
|||
|
Low Yield |
Intermediate Yield |
High Yield |
F.A.O. Data |
||
|
('000 MT whole milk equivalent) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
(%) |
|
|
1970 |
225.5 |
48.6 |
59.5 |
66.6 |
64.2 |
|
1971 |
251.8 |
46.6 |
57.6 |
64.8 |
44.6 |
|
1972 |
244.6 |
47.9 |
58.9 |
66.0 |
53.2 |
|
1973 |
190.1 |
55.3 |
65.8 |
72.3 |
59.0 |
|
1974 |
200.3 |
54.7 |
65.0 |
71.6 |
58.6 |
|
1975 |
325.3 |
43.2 |
54.2 |
61.6 |
52.9 |
|
1976 |
320.1 |
44.4 |
55.4 |
62.7 |
54.9 |
|
1977 |
509.9 |
34.0 |
44.5 |
52.1 |
43.3 |
|
1978 |
613.2 |
30.5 |
40.5 |
48.1 |
39.8 |
|
1979 |
464.8 |
37.5 |
48.2 |
55.8 |
47.5 |
|
1980 |
672.4 |
30.0 |
40.0 |
47.5 |
39.5 |
|
1981 |
659.6 |
31.0 |
41.1 |
48.7 |
40.3 |
|
1982 |
650.6 |
32.7 |
43.1 |
50.7 |
40.8 |
|
1983 |
795.4 |
28.9 |
38.7 |
46.2 |
35.6 |
Source: Nwoko (1985a)
