49. The adverse trends we have itemized tend to be interactive, so that their negative consequences become more powerful once several trends become overlaid within the same locality. Unfortunately, many of Africa's dry lands have experienced major drought, military conflicts, and economic dislocation simultaneously.
50. In addition to specific consequences, these trends have the general effect of raising the levels of risk attached to animal production. This in turn strongly influences production strategies, though in complex ways not yet fully understood. However, what can be stated with some certainty is that these circumstances do not encourage "modern" animal production of the kinds promoted by animal scientists. Those producers who adopt "elite" technical packages without the benefit of exogenous buffering mechanisms (like remittances from relatives working in the Near East) are likely to suffer economic disaster as a consequence.
51. Few existing programs are designed to tackle the entitlement issue after a major drought. It seems that under present circumstances it is more difficult for pastoral producers to regain a nucleus herd sufficient for them to rejoin a semi-nomadic way of life. At present, this represents the single most critical gap in governmental programs for livestock producers.
52. More generally, it would seem that the portfolio of interventions which most governments offer to the livestock sector is not well suited for situations where frequent and severe droughts occur. Certainly, spontaneous sedentarization does not lead to a better way of life for pastoralists in such environments.
53. Governments also need to screen their choice of interventions to find those which are relatively robust in regard to their tolerance of economic dislocations. Projects which require import support are especially dangerous.
54. The degree of dislocation is not, however, uniform within and between countries. There is much scope for identifying "recommendation domains" which take into account the presence or absence of adverse proximate trends.
55. Finally, governments have proved rarely adept at suggesting what livestock producers should do under circumstances of reduced holdings and more frequent droughts. The cutback in focused research on production systems suited to modern pastoralism is especially unfortunate. Pastoralists possess a wealth of experience about their species and environment which needs to be supported and refined by imaginative scientific inquiry.
