Spontaneous development trends
Drought-related impacts
Induced systemic crises
33. It is important that advisors come to recognize that producers respond to the immediate circumstances they encounter, both positive and negative. The "proximate" factors cannot be judged from a distance, and often are not known when livestock projects are being designed. And yet the output realized will depend heavily upon the relative balance between positive and negative pressures as they are actually experienced in the field.
34. A striking feature of Africa's official programs for livestock development is their continued reliance upon "elite" technical packages. "Elite packages" are an assemblage of interventions which assume favourable conditions within the production environment. For example, the construction of acaricide dips assumes that acaricide is available, that resistant strains of ticks have not yet emerged, that all farmers will use the. facility, and that its water supply will be kept operating. Across Africa, we find that ministries continue to sponsor dipping, tsetse control, improved breeds, artificial insemination, holding grounds, veterinary training, and so forth - the whole array of interventions itemized earlier in this paper. However, on closer inspection it can be seen that a majority of these measures require favourable conditions for their success. Africa's livestock services attempt to support much the same project portfolio which they offered a decade ago when funding was easy and when trends seemed favourable. When encountering adversity, many Ministries have simply cut back on recurrent operating funds, leaving field centers without drugs, spare parts, water or transport. Official plan documents continue to describe livestock program objectives as if favourable conditions persist.
35. This paper suggests, to the contrary, that the weak performance of "elite" technical packages occurs because at the local level where pastoralists become part of the system, adverse trends have become strongly entrenched.
36. The adverse influences we itemize below can be grouped into three broad categories: i) spontaneous developments accompanying population growth and commercialization in a common-property resource setting; ii) drought-related impacts; and iii) effects of economic dislocation and insecurity.
37. Land alienation which removes critical dry season forage reserves from pastoral use has accelerated in many countries. For example, virtually all of Africa's major irrigation schemes have been located in what had been critical dry season grazing for pastoralists. There has been an intensified population movement from crop farming areas into rangelands, both in the Sahel of West Africa and on the margins of the East African highlands. Large pieces of land have been taken for national parks, game reserves, and forest reserves. And, of course, most governmental investment in state ranches, fattening lot, and holding grounds occurs on land which was earlier used by livestock keepers. The detrimental effects of such excisions are amplified because the rangelands removed are often the best dry season grazing.
38. Enclosure of common property rangelands is also accelerating, though it can take a variety of forms: i) privatization of wells; and dams; ii) individuation of holdings by fencing; iii) exclusive claim to certain key resources by powerful individuals; and iv) ploughing up of pasture for arable farming. Again, it tends to affect the highest potential lands and to be instituted by richer producers or outsiders who may continue to keep other herds on the remaining commons.
39. Reduced size of holdings is the inevitable consequence of human population growth but exclosure and land alienation reduces the size of the remaining rangelands. While government planners continue to prepare schemes to provide individual ranches of a 1000 ha or more, those left on communal lands face the need to support themselves from units of less than 100 ha each. Hardly any detailed planning has been done which caters to livestock-based small holdings in semi-arid environments. One can anticipate that such holdings will rely more upon small-stock than cattle, and will usually entail some agro-pastoral component.
40. Loss of the herding force occurs as young men enter schooling or leave to look for work elsewhere. Traditional herd management was fairly efficient because different species were herded separately and families split the milking herd from the dry animals (kept at a longer distance). This labor intensive pattern cannot be maintained once teenage boys are withdrawn from the system. Despite being against traditional custom, these days girls are seen as herders for the "home" animals.
41. Emergence of agro-pastoralism is taking place even in very dry lands where cropping is not technically advisable. It reflects pastoralists' own fears regarding their access to grain in dry years, as well as a spontaneous adjustment to the sedentarisation which has occurred around famine-relief distribution points.
42. A major drought, particularly if it extends over several seasons, is the test of any livestock production system. It seems clear that the preference of Africa's dry lands producers for having multiple species is related to their desire to minimize drought impacts. It is also important to recognize that recent droughts have been very severe and are part of world-wide climatic trends. The Sahelian drought of 1984 was preceded by warmer than average ocean temperatures in the south Atlantic, and was part of a much larger climatic anomaly which severely affected South Africa and Australia as well.
43. Loss of animals has taken place during both the mid-1970s and early 1980s in many African countries, to such an extent that entire populations were left without a means of livelihood Aerial censuses undertaken by Ecosystems/NORAD and Ergo/ILCA in Turkana and in central Niger document very large fluctuations in livestock numbers during the recent droughts. In Sudan, nomads east of the Nile lost almost all their animals. It is now realised that few pastoral groups had many surplus animals even before the drought. A 50% or more reduction in herd sizes leaves many poorer families without the means to re-enter semi-nomadic pastoralism.
44. Spontaneous sedentarisation has become evident over most of the zone, either around food distribution points or in the form of squatter settlements on the fringes of major towns. The concentration of large numbers of people in permanent settlements without a means of livelihood other than famine relief, and without improved sanitation, greatly increases environmental pressure and health risks. Initially, many governments welcomed sedentarisation in hopes that it would give officials greater control over pastoralists. Now, it is increasingly realised that people living in such settlements are losing their traditional skills and are likely to become a permanent welfare burden upon the state.
45. Loss of trees is accelerating not only because of the drought but also because of charcoal making by destitute ex-pastoralists and fuelwood cutting around the emerging settlements. This loss has serious negative consequences for pastoralists who depended upon browsing camels and goats to survive in the driest zone. The World Bank's recent study of Sahelian desertification concludes that the Sahel's wood resources (i.e. household energy) will be depleted even before water and arable land become limiting.
46. Emergence of destitute and refugee populations seems to be likely in the more marginal areas where traditional livelihood was based on camels and goats. This tendency is exacerbated where there are military conflicts, as in northern Chad or along the Somali borders. Those who favour a drastic reduction in the human populations living in the semi-arid zone fail to recognize that much of the population increase originates from the higher rainfall areas and that there is no place for ex-pastoralists to go. Instead, they are becoming permanent consumers of Europe's grain surplus.
47. Economic retrenchment has accompanied the deepening economic crisis which afflicts many African economies. Caused by a combination of over-ambitious industrialization, too rapid growth of public institutions, and a fall in export earnings, this crisis has forced countries to limit imports severely. Livestock producers in marginal environments are especially vulnerable to shortages of drugs, lack of transport, and unavailability of spare parts for water pumps. Many countries discontinued their spraying programs to control locusts, and stopped carrying out annual innoculation campaigns. Many dips were left without acaricide or reliable water. The departmental staff have lost their recurrent operating funds, making it impossible for them to travel or to support capital projects. These distortions are likely to be seen most clearly in isolated locations which have little political influence at the sources of national supply.
48. Military conflicts have erupted within many of Africa's drier lands, either through armed insurrections or by outside interference. Once modern weapons get into local circulation, groups are tempted to raid their neighbours to replace animals lost to drought or through other reciprocal raids. Insecurity coupled with access to arms has a ripple effect spreading far beyond the initial area of conflict. Since livestock are very easily slaughtered or stolen, livestock production suffers disproportionately when such conflicts occur. It becomes extremely difficult to justify investment in improved stock or careful breeding if one's animals are likely to be stolen. Large areas of southern Africa, the Horn, and the borders of the Sahara are now subject to military action and becoming abandoned by pastoralists.
