The objectives of this chapter are to: offer justifications for continued investments in rangeland development in Ethiopia; forward an integrated goal for the development of the Borana pastoral system; outline tactics for a best-bet development strategy to meet this goal; note major constraints for implementing tactics; and summarise major research implications of this systems study.
The current development picture in the southern rangelands is bleak. As a result of the 1990-91 drought, roughly 200 000 pastoralists are receiving food relief and around 50% of the regional cattle herd perished. What used to be referred to as a model of sustainable pastoralism in Africa is now suffering problems regarded as endemic to pastoral Africa in general. The fundamental cause of the situation is multi-faceted. Human population growth appears rapid, but it is not appreciably different from that of similar systems. There may be, however, little opportunity or tendency for the Boran to emigrate out of their system. The lack of a means of releasing human population pressure is hypothesised as the root cause of the problem. This has been exacerbated by the cultural isolation of the Boran from the rest of Ethiopia and limited economic opportunities outside the pastoral sector. The cattle population is increasingly limited by land availability and the ratio of milk cows to people is probably in a precipitous decline. This has led to economic adjustments which include pert-urban dairy marketing and emergent agropastoralism. Negative effects are magnified because there are indications that a finite resource base is becoming smaller. Population growth, both for the Boran and neighbouring ethnic groups, is now harming their production systems because people are reportedly residing in, or otherwise using, internal and external grazing reserves to an increasing degree. These reserves used to be held as buffers to protect cattle herds against drought. Mix these problems with a dry-year probability of 0.20 and the recipe is disaster.
This negative trend has occurred despite large investments in infrastructure during the 1970s and 1980s. While it is extremely fortuitous that roads and markets are now in place to accommodate future changes in the system, there are several reasons why development planners and expert consultants failed to envision the scenario which has unfolded today. First, it was wrongly assumed that the Boran had Western values and were eager to raise cattle for cash; and second, there was a poor understanding of how population pressure drives social and economic change. Interventions mostly occurred at an earlier time when it was not necessary for the Boran to change their traditional life-style. Now, because of a high population density, they have to change in order to better feed themselves, but the problem today more resembles crisis management than development. Some of today's crises could have been averted if the same attention had been given to education and development of human potential as was given to how to stimulate cattle production and offtake. Planners will be pleased to know that the Boran should market a higher percentage of cattle in the future and on average these will be younger animals. This is not, however, due to a revolution in commercial attitudes but to the Boran being forced to sell more animals to buy grain. One consequence is that the Boran are now vulnerable to unstable markets and cattle inventories could be depleted to an extent that endangers asset accumulation and drought recovery and encourages poverty.
It is forwarded that the goals of rural development should include agricultural growth in the form of livestock production, poverty alleviation and increased ecological sustainability. If no measures are taken to promote economic development of the Borana system, the prospect is that the chances for agricultural growth will decline, poverty will increase and ecological sustainability will be compromised by increased cereal cultivation on fragile upland soils to mitigate famine risk and from additional bush encroachment and soil erosion induced by cattle grazing.
Because of the large area and high population density, the highlands should receive priority attention for agricultural development in Ethiopia. The rangelands cannot be ignored in the national interest, however, because they will increasingly serve as extensive breeding grounds for animals used in the highlands and for diversification of exports. It is speculated that the highlands of the future will become increasingly crowded to the extent that smallholders will become less able to control the entire process of producing large stock from birth to finishing. They thus will demand a greater supply of cattle that have been bred elsewhere for finishing or draft.
Pre-conditions may now exist, both in the highlands and lowlands, to achieve the goal of national agricultural integration envisioned in the early 1970s if policies and provision of technology and inputs are adequate. The highlands and lowlands offer complementary production advantages which can be better exploited. Benefits of national integration now occur in two directions; besides smallholders benefiting from an enhanced supply of range-bred stock, populations like the Boran are in dire need of highlands grain at reasonable terms of trade to offset the chronic risk of famine.
The broad view is that interventions in the southern rangelands need to promote sustainability of the traditional social order as well as ecological sustainability of livestock production. Both are inter-related; famine risk, poverty and undermining of cultural values threaten the social order. Increased competition and density-dependent patterns of livestock production suggest that more households will be gradually forced out of the traditional sector during droughts. The population of pert-urban poor would increase and this could become a negative factor in the social welfare of small towns. It is also speculated that failure to deal with these problems means the system could begin to collapse as a result of increased regional insecurity and enhanced difficulties in maintaining operation of the deep wells without coordinated human inputs. Without the deep wells in full operation, the livestock production system could be markedly less efficient and unsustainable. Technology for reliably raising well water under low-input conditions is deemed inappropriate at this time. Enhancing prospects for ecological sustainability is a longer-term issue that requires a hierarchical, and step-wise, approach to rural development. If the production system is not stabilised in response to drought, there are negative implications for the Boran in terms of loss of animals that could otherwise be marketed and increased variability in marketed offtake for the nation.
Although the challenge is daunting, the fundamental premise of this chapter is that the entire Borana system can be managed to increase agricultural growth, alleviate poverty and reduce risks to the environment using several key interventions in tandem. These measures should also help stabilise the system in response to drought. This has positive implications for reducing the outward flow of destitute people over the short-term and reducing losses of milk cows which reduces the need for unsustainable cereal cultivation during drought recovery. It also could assist efforts to preserve the Boran cattle breed which would reduce the need for the Boran to trade their cattle for inferior highland cows during drought recovery.
The time when one development agency, or a few technologies, could have significant impact on the Borana system is now over. Managing the system for widespread impact today requires a greater focus on the effects of policy and the coordinated action among several development agencies and government ministries. The strategy advocated here is also not unduly expensive to implement.
Forwarded in the previous chapter, the theory of local system dynamics implies that development action must deal with two phenomena, namely the long-term trend of a decline in the ratio of cattle to people and the inter-drought cycle consisting of the drought-recovery phase and the high-density phase. Development must also deal with problems in order of their immediate importance to Borana society: (1) improve food security; (2) reduce risks of animal production and asset accumulation; (3) enhance livestock production and herd turnover; and (4) deal with ecological sustainability and poverty over the longer term through population management. Assuming that the first goal can be achieved, attainment of the second goal is the key to everything else. Some interventions can address both the long-term trend and the inter-drought cycle simultaneously.
Using the framework above, means that dealing with the long-term trend can be started now, but the effects will not be felt for a few years. In contrast, the inter-drought cycle can be dealt with immediately with faster results. An example is described in which the drought-recovery phase is comprised of the years 1992-96 and the high-density phase occurs after 1997. In general terms, the drought-recovery phase is when cattle-stocking rates are <20 head/km² and the high-density phase is when stocking rates are >20 head/km². This schema is overly simplistic because variability in rainfall or incidence of epidemic disease could disrupt herd growth patterns. The inter-drought cycle may be quite predictable, however, considering rainfall. For example, there is a 0.75 chance that the years 1992-96 will have one dry year or less and will thus support rapid herd growth. There is a 0.25 chance that lack of rainfall would slow herd growth. Once the high-density phase occurs, there is a 0.50 chance of low rainfall in at least one of the first three years and thus a high probability of a drought-induced population crash. This underscores the impression that the occurrence of drought impact is influenced as much by the cattle population as by rainfall and leads to the speculation that a major crash could now occur once every five to 10 years unless action is taken to stabilise the system.
Measures to deal with the long-term trend are needed to maintain favourable terms of trade of livestock for grain, stabilise the cattle population in response to drought and facilitate the ability of a portion of the Borana population to emigrate. Ultimately, the future of the Boran will be greatly influenced by the trajectory of small towns in the rangelands, both as market outlets and sources of employment. The step-wise approach is to first improve food security through local cereal production as a temporary measure and open regional marketing channels, and secondly to gradually increase the ratio of cattle to people by incremental increases in livestock-carrying capacity and stimulation of human emigration. Major activities include national, regional and local policy initiatives: (1) stimulate maize production to promote surpluses in the southern highlands, encourage inter-regional commerce and de-regulate producer prices for livestock and grain; (2) encourage local maintenance and development of infrastructure and transport networks in the southern rangelands to improve market access and promote growth of towns like Yabelo, Moyale, Mega and Negele; (3) support development agencies in the southern rangelands and encourage their interaction with the Boran on the basis of participatory development that focuses on felt needs of the community; (4) devise a land-use policy in recognition of the need for the Boran to cultivate only on ecologically sustainable sites, maintain viable grazing areas within madda that provide a framework for reclaiming drought reserves from human encroachment; (5) increase access of the Boran to elementary education; and (6) initiate plans to increase access of the Boran to the commercial banking sector and consider strategies to use banked livestock capital to stimulate economic growth in the small towns.
Means to deal with the drought-recovery phase during 1992-96 should complement strategies employed by the Boran. These are predicted to include growing maize, selling milk and small ruminants to town dwellers, and attempting to build up cattle herds. Policy measures should include (1) facilitation of food relief activities; (2) promotion of favourable terms of trade of livestock and milk for grain by improving market channels; (3) taking advantage of opportunities to export sheep from the southern rangelands; and (4) allowing cereal cultivation in ecologically sustainable sites.
Technical interventions should be focused in pert-urban locations for both pastoralists and farmers; this acknowledges logistical constraints for extension and that good ideas will be disseminated to outlying areas by Boran who visit market centres. Technical perspectives should prioritise (1) crop management to improve sustainable yields on appropriate sites, enhance crop diversity to reduce risks and promote crop-livestock interactions; (2) extend household-level grain store concepts to improve seasonal terms of trade; (3) enhance cow milk production through extension of acaricides, other health measures and improved calf management using grass hay and native legumes to reduce risk of calf mortality and thus lengthen the duration of lactations; (4) improve veterinary service for small ruminants; and (5) initiate options and incentives for the Boran to bank livestock capital.
For outlying communities, the drought-recovery phase is also the time to promote site-restoration activities, including burning and regulated charcoal production for bush control and facilitate access to camels for encampments to increase their ability to transport grain from markets. All supplies and services should be paid for by the Boran; this gives a good test of their priorities. The Boran should be typically unwilling to pay using cattle sales at this time, however, so sales of small ruminants may have to be used more to generate funds.
Means to deal with the high-density phase could start around 1997; development tactics should complement strategies employed by the Boran. Some are similar to those in the drought-recovery phase such as growing maize and selling dairy products. However, others include a need to accommodate more cattle grazing and to reduce risks incurred by holding more cattle under more precarious environmental circumstances. Additional policy or procedures should include preparedness of agencies to (1) cope with increased likelihood of having to distribute food relief; (2) facilitate implementation of projects involving development or maintenance of water points and building grain stores funded by cattle sales; (3) initiate a major push to bank livestock capital; (4) ensure that drought reserves are capable of handling an adequate number of cattle given that a dry year occurs; and (5) market cattle to the highlands or for export. For activities (3) and (4) traders should be coordinated to help remove marketed cattle from the system. Technical perspectives should prioritise extension of appropriate grazing management plans tailored for particular madda under resource stress; consideration of improvements to drought reserves including distribution of water and grazing; and extension of improved methods of calf feeding management based on hay making and native legumes.
Assuming many initiatives had been implemented, the subsequent inter-drought cycle after 1997 should be less catastrophic than the 1992-97 one. In summary, interventions can be grouped according to the following objectives: (1) Food security is dealt with by encouraging maize production on suitable sites, opening regional markets, de-regulating producer prices and extending health services to livestock; (2) Risk mitigation is achieved in part by improving food security, but also by banking livestock capital, reclaiming drought reserves and stimulating offtake to fund community projects; (3) Livestock production and herd turnover should be facilitated by factors listed in item (2) because increased offtake during the high-density phase should reduce the likelihood of density-dependent effects on cow milk production and animal mortality; (4) Poverty alleviation over the short-term is facilitated by banking livestock capital and increasing livestock production and herd turnover; and (5) Risks of ecological unsustainability should be lessened by banking livestock capital, reclaiming drought reserves, using restoration methods and grazing management to increase grazing resources available to select madda and by improving food security which would lessen the need for people to cultivate. Effects of facilitating human emigration would not be felt for a number of years, but these would include improvements to food security, risk mitigation and poverty alleviation.
It is proposed that one intervention exceeds all others by having a positive impact on food security, risk mitigation, livestock production and poverty alleviation; this is banking livestock capital. It is referred to as the "keystone" intervention. The constraints for implementing this intervention include (1) potential distrust of banking by the Boran exacerbated by culture; (2) barriers that exclude illiterate people from using the banking system; (3) lack of enough bank branches in the area; and (4) factors such as inflation which are subject to national currency management. Even under conditions of moderate inflation, banking livestock capital could be an effective means of ensuring asset accumulation that is less dependent on ecological system dynamics.
The other interventions in total could have significant impact, but in some respects they are more difficult to implement widely than banking livestock capital. Constraints include (1) limited manpower and funds for extension and land-use monitoring; (2) inadequate access of development agents to key amounts of foreign exchange to procure veterinary supplies, spare parts and other necessities (this is despite the fact that range livestock are intended to be a major generator of foreign exchange); (3) difficulties in development agencies and government coordinating their efforts to affect policy changes and work together to solve important problems; and (4) difficulties that the national economy has in producing and distributing consumer goods. Projects perceived as important to the Boran can be paid for in local currency from livestock sales and this is not viewed as a major obstacle. The irony is that lack of substantial development impact is not due to a lack of technology or inappropriate resistance on the part of the pastoralists.
Efficient implementation of the development programme reported above requires that some routine information be collected concerning cattle herd dynamics, land use, range trend and felt needs of the community on an annual basis. This information could be quantitative or qualitative in nature and could be used to validate and/or improve upon ideas proposed in the theory of local system dynamics. Interpretation of range trend data, in particular, may be complicated by the cyclic pattern of cattle herd dynamics. Herbaceous cover dynamics may appear cyclic rather than linear and trends may be difficult to discern. Similarly, bush establishment may appear as an episodic phenomenon during the high-density phase of the cattle population.
Future research priorities largely involve sociology and economics. These could include the study of (1) banking livestock capital to recommend asset management strategies for pastoral households and the role banked funds could play in urban development; (2) human population growth and the fate of Borana emigrants; (3) the degree to which the traditional social order can cope with stress and eventual loss of labourers; and (4) implications of system change for vulnerable groups such as women and children. Adaptive research could be directed towards problems involving sustainable cereal cultivation. The need for traditional livestock research is relatively minor.
Finally, implications of research findings for 28 major themes are highlighted. These include equilibrial system features, effects of the Boran on the environment, system sustainability, biodiversity, conservation of indigenous livestock breeds, gender, livestock production, pastoral production efficiency, upstream versus downstream research, production interventions versus those which mitigate risks, evolution of dairy marketing and agropastoralism, collaboration between research and development agents and the value of systems science for research, development thinking and education.
