This chapter reviews (1) contemporary issues in African pastoral development; (2) a development philosophy appropriate for the Borana situation; (3) perceived impacts of interventions implemented in the southern rangelands since the 1960s; (4) a mechanistic and comprehensive theory within which future social, economic, ecological and agricultural dynamics of the system can be predicted; and (5) a practical framework for development impact which employs a systems approach combined with commodity-based research and insights derived from local development experience.
Despite spending millions of dollars on infrastructural improvements and livestock services in the southern rangelands since the 1960s, range development planners concede that the impact of interventions has been far below their expectations. Planners had assumed that once animal health status was improved and market outlets were available by the late 1970s, dramatic increases in cattle offtake for domestic consumption and export would occur. This was also supposed to lead to higher incomes and an improved standard of living for the Boran. Instead, the net result appears to be a larger population of cattle capable of degrading the land and a human population increasingly dependent on relief and rehabilitation. This negative outcome is consistent with the mainstream view of pastoral development problems observed throughout Africa. While the situation for the Boran is indeed deteriorating today, it is argued that past interventions had value by helping delay an inevitable decline in the production system that ultimately results from rapid growth of a human population which is dependent on a finite resource base. It is postulated that impact of future interventions can be maximised if implementation is properly timed with respect to population pressure. Population pressure thus can create new opportunities for positive change.
Rather than discount the value of past interventions, Borana leaders have noted numerous, positive impacts on their lives from veterinary campaigns and development of roads, ponds and markets. Population studies suggest that while marketed offtake of cattle has been slow to respond to improved infrastructure, it should greatly increase by the turn of the century as a result of population pressure and food deficits which will force the Boran to trade more animal products for cereals. Increased dependency on external resources, however, will be very dangerous for the Boran if markets are not operating efficiently and at favourable terms of trade. Under-utilised in the past, roads and markets will become the future lifeline for Borana society. The ponds and veterinary services reportedly delayed the onset of poverty for many households in the 1970s and 1980s by improving access to new land and providing more cattle.
It thus appears that increased cattle production from extensive interventions tended to be absorbed by a growing population for subsistence rather than marketed. Opportunities for further extensive interventions are now limited, however, and windows are opening for the application of new policies and technical innovations which were non-existent a decade ago. Increased bottom-up demand for interventions will result from heightened human competition for resources. Using an inter-disciplinary systems approach suggests that changes in Borana society, economy and environment are somewhat predictable and can thus shape a framework for development intervention.
Based on seven years of observation, it is hypothesised that the production system is subjected to two simultaneous processes, namely a long-term trend which results from a declining ratio of cattle: people and short-term cycles which occur as a result of variable stocking rates of cattle. The long-term trend occurs because growth in the human population is rapid and steady, but growth in the cattle population is primarily limited by scarcity of land. The short-term trend occurs because a two-year drought can reduce total cattle inventory by over 50%. Stocking rates can thus vary from <10 head/km² during early years of drought recovery to >20 head/km² a few years later if intervening rainfall is adequate. These periods are referred to as the drought-recovery phase and high-density phase, respectively. This dramatic shift in stocking rate is postulated to cause large variation in livestock output per head and per unit area. Milk output per cow gradually declines as a function of an increasing stocking rate; this infers that cow productivity is strongly influenced by forage competition. However, milk output per unit area, which reflects stocking rate of cows as well as productivity per cow, is the most important variable. Milk output per unit area probably gradually rises during drought recovery, briefly peaks and then declines as a result of forage competition among cattle. This optimisation pattern is postulated to drive a cycle of short-term social and economic adjustments by the Boran.
In the absence of development interventions, there should be a number of predictable outcomes for the Boran over the long-term. These have been deduced from observations in the southern rangelands and from the pastoral literature. These include (1) an increasing annual deficit in food energy, produced by traditional means, for the people that will approach 60% by the turn of the century; (2) a permanent and expanding effort to cultivate; (3) increased offtake of cattle to buy grain; (4) annexation of higher-potential land for forage reserves serving calves and immobile cows; (5) increased emigration of young males leading to key labour shortages; (6) increased wealth stratification; (7) a growing population of pert-urban poor dependent on dairy sales for survival; (8) increased interest in small ruminant and camel production; (9) an increased milking intensity of cows and enhanced percentage of cows in the regional herd; (10) a decreasing percentage of mature male cattle as a result of increasing sales and increases in cows which will reduce risk-mitigation capability of households; (11) a decline in the use of bush foods; (12) a decline in traditional milk processing because of a lower milk surplus; (13) increased risk of environmental degradation in the form of bush encroachment; and (14) threats to the inter-generational transfer of social mores, leading to uncertainties in the maintenance of traditional rights and responsibilities.
Dynamics focusing on food procurement are attributable to a declining per capita supply of cow milk. Increased efforts by the Boran to sell dairy products and produce cereals or small ruminants are all hypothesised to result from attempts to engage in alternative activities which allow them to avoid or delay selling cattle, which are the major form of wealth generation and storage and social security in the society.
It would be difficult to observe long-term trends from year-to-year because the short-term cycles are superimposed over the long-term trends and confuse interpretation. The inter-drought cycle is speculated to result from adjustments by the Boran to secure resources when facing annually variable constraints on their food supply. The drought-recovery phase is postulated to have been observed during 1985-87. This time was characterised by (1) increasing rates of milk output per unit area due to a growing stocking rate of cows; (2) aggressive and opportunistic production values of households seeking to rapidly rebuild their cattle herds; (3) intensive efforts to cultivate cereals due to a milk deficit per unit area; (4) extensive recovery of the grass layer from previous heavy grazing, with the extent of recovery dependent on rainfall; (5) increased sales of milk from pert-urban households needing grain to cover large deficits in food energy; (6) increased sales of small ruminants to buy grain; and (7) traditional, reciprocal grazing rights among territorial groups honoured, allowing unrestricted access.
Near-recovery of per capita milk production following the 1983-84 drought is speculated to have occurred around 1988 when numbers of lactating cows peaked, but before density-dependent interactions took hold. Full recovery to pre-drought levels would not have occurred, however, because steady growth in the human population during the interim lowered the ceiling on per capita yields. This recovery year was a time of the lowest annual food-energy deficit for the Boran in the inter-drought cycle. They would have still needed to buy or cultivate cereals, but to a slightly lower extent than 1985-87 or 1989-91.
The high-density phase is postulated to have occurred from 1989 until a severe drought year in 1991. This was probably characterised by (1) declining rates of cattle production per head and per hectare due to increasing forage competition; (2) more conservative production values of wealthier households in response to increased production risks and social pressure from their peers to destock; (3) re-initiated efforts to cultivate cereals more intensively; (4) heavy grazing pressure and increased likelihood of widespread establishment of bush seedlings, the latter also dependent on rainfall; (5) increased sales of milk and butter from pert-urban households needing grain to cover food-energy deficits; (6) increased sales of small ruminants and cattle to purchase grain; and (7) reciprocal grazing rights periodically refused among territorial groups.
The development philosophy to be pursued in this system is one that first and foremost must achieve security for the Boran in terms of food procurement and asset accumulation and diversification to mitigate risks. Secondary goals are to better promote life-style choices through access to education and local urban development. Other goals include use of livestock assets to achieve improvements in access to water and other basic essentials of day-to-day life. While the challenges are daunting, changes are feasible here because of two factors: (1) the Boran have the capability to rapidly generate capital assets in the form of livestock; and (2) the Boran have repeatedly demonstrated open-mindedness in response to appropriate innovations. The development problem can be initially confronted by combining strategies to improve cattle production in conjunction with a fundamental shift in how animal assets are marketed and utilised. Because of these development priorities, system sustainability is first defined in terms of per capita production of milk and per capita accumulation of male cattle as assets. Protecting the environment and measuring environmental sustainability is very complex and is a goal that can only be addressed after acute human needs have been met. At present per capita food production and asset accumulation are in a decline spurred by human population growth. Sustainability of these attributes could largely be enhanced by alternative investments for a portion of the cattle portfolio and increased rates of emigration of pastoralists out of the system.
Specific means to initiate development action must address an increasing need to (1) provide more human food in all types of rainfall years; (2) stabilise the system in response to drought through risk management of herd assets; (3) focus on improving aspects of livestock production that are already intensive and have a lower risk; (4) make more efficient use of existing resources; (5) facilitate use of livestock assets for economic growth and community development; and (6) nurture and complement traditional aspects of social organisation to promote indigenous management of resources and protect valued aspects of the culture.
A review of component research and recent development experience suggests that the following intervention concepts are most appropriate (1) promotion of monetisation, risk management of herd assets and improved human welfare through projects to maintain wells and ponds using heavy machinery as funded by livestock sales of the wealthy and middle class; (2) promotion of human welfare, improved labour efficiency and risk management of herd assets by extending cement cisterns funded by livestock sales to increase water supplies to households and calves; (3) promotion of grazing management schemes tailored to meet needs of specific communities; (4) rehabilitation of bush-encroached areas using prescribed fire, arboricides and charcoal production to recover labour costs; (5) hay making with local grasses to improve nutrition of hand-reared calves and reduce rates of calf mortality; (6) use of small quantities of local legume forage including acacia fruits and leaves to provide protein supplements for calf diets based on grass hay; (7) improved management of cultivated fields in appropriate sites including diversification of cereals with cowpea (Vigna spp) which provides seeds for human consumption and residue for supplementing calf diets based on grass hay; (8) provision of acaricides in a form to protect cow udders from tick damage to promote milk production; (9) promotion of herd diversification to include more small ruminants and camels achieved, respectively, by improvement in delivery of veterinary services and access to camel markets; and (10) promotion of local below-ground grain stores and/or regional grain stores funded through livestock sales.
Impact of technical interventions would be enhanced within a framework of policies and procedures which facilitate (1) access of pastoral development projects to modest amounts of foreign exchange to support acquisition of fuel, spare parts, chemicals and veterinary inputs; (2) timely collection and proper administration of funds collected from organised livestock sales in support of community development projects; (3) local and inter-regional trade in grain, livestock, dairy products, cement, hand tools and other basic essentials; (4) allocation of appropriate sites to be used for sustainable cultivation and charcoal production by pastoralists; (5) risk management of cattle assets including alternative investments for wealthy and middle-class households in the form of simple savings accounts in banks; (6) opportunistic provision of employment on public works projects during the second consecutive year of droughts; (7) existence of a reasonably staffed and equipped range development agency within the Ministry of Agriculture with a mandate to work in partnership with the pastoralists to prioritise finding solutions to felt needs of the community; and (9) education of pastoralists and stimulation of local urban development which could improve the likelihood that pastoralists could successfully emigrate out of the traditional system. A review of these technical and policy interventions strongly suggests that most of the ultimate constraints to effective implementation lie outside, not within, the pastoral system.
The intervention philosophy is based on meeting bottom-up demand for technology and services that the Boran are willing and able to pay for through livestock sales. This is the perfect test criterion for judging whether a certain intervention is meeting people's priorities. Many ideas that originated from top-down thinking failed in the 1980s. These failed because they lacked practical appreciation of people's priorities and constraints. For example, interventions using animal-drawn pond scoops to maintain ponds were promoted to save foreign exchange needed to maintain heavy machinery. The scoops were found to be inappropriate because the Boran appear unwilling to risk valuable animals for extensive, communal work commitments. In contrast, use of animal traction for short-term cultivation work should be very successful.
Forage improvements based on exotics have also commonly yielded disappointing results due to constraints of rainfall and air temperature. Exotic forages also have the limitation of not directly meeting people's needs in terms of more food for themselves or helping them manage existing resources more efficiently. That is why local range management tactics, extension of dual-purpose cowpea and efforts to improve cereal crop management on appropriate sites should be very successful. Forage intervention should also be focused on low-input strategies to make better use of valuable indigenous grasses and trees. While the trees have the disadvantage of low and variable productivity, they persist well in the environment. Hay making is an excellent example of a bottom-up solution to a calf management problem using local resources. Hay making can result in marked nutritional improvements in calf performance as it is an easily transferred innovation and converts a communal grazing or cut-and-carry resource into a private resource.
Strategies to enhance cattle growth to improve life-time performance were also found to be ill-conceived in terms of lack of an appropriate social or ecological perspective and were deemed far too risky for implementation. In essence, there is no long-term cost for cattle production accruing from levels of milk offtake that averaged 170 l/head/lactation. Compensatory growth in young cattle is a powerful attribute that may often overcome the effects of early nutritional deprivation due to milk restriction. Calf mortality mitigation, in contrast to speeding up growth, is much more appropriate culturally, ecologically and economically. Drought mitigation tactics based on fodder reserves of Atriplex and Opuntia spp were also found to be ill-conceived. Although also beset by daunting constraints, alternative investment for a portion of cattle assets in the form of simple saving accounts for households is the only dramatic means to quickly achieve increased rates of cattle offtake, faster herd turnover, increased animal production, stabilisation of the cattle population in response to drought, improved risk management of assets for households, minimised risk of famine by buffering terms of trade and encouraging economic growth for households and local urban centres. This strategy could be most effective if managed in the form of a sustainable yield scenario with the regional herd held at <20 head/km². The biological and ecological postulates that underpin this strategy hold true because high stocking rates can reduce animal production and increase pastoral risks. The system thus exhibits strong equilibrial characteristics.
Using the dynamic systems model involving long-term trends and short-term cycles, in conjunction with commodity intervention concepts, reveals that windows of opportunity for different interventions may be gradually closing, gradually opening, or opening and closing in a cyclic or episodic fashion. Windows based on system extensification or utilisation of traditional surplus products are closing; these include prospects for new, large-scale water developments and milk processing technologies. Windows based on system intensification and marketing are gradually opening; these include interventions for cultivation, calf management, water management, site reclamation, grazing management, dairy and livestock marketing, risk management of livestock assets, herd diversification and promotion of human development through education.
The short-term cycles also will affect success of interventions. Those interventions dependent on low stocking rates for their success (such as site reclamation) would be most effectively carried out during a drought-recovery phase of the cattle population. Those interventions dependent on high stocking rates for their success (such as livestock-funded water development and grain stores, banking livestock assets, grazing management, hay making etc) should be promoted during high-density phases of the cattle population. Some interventions would thus be adopted, dropped and re-adopted as part of a cyclic process. This illustrates that pastoral development activities should be opportunistic and planned around anticipated, but probabilistic, dynamics of the production system. This also illustrates that systems and commodity research should be run in parallel to gain insights relevant to achieving development impact. The commodity work helps us understand what and how to implement while systems work helps us understand when to implement commodity interventions and why.
