This chapter primarily reviews impacts of the 1983-84 drought on the Borana production system and outlines key tactics that households used in response to drought. A secondary objective is to highlight effects of another drought in 1990-91 and interpret cattle population dynamics observed from 1982-91 within an ecological framework of density-independent or density-dependent regulation of population size. Most of the empirical findings in this chapter are consistent with the literature on drought responses of pastoral populations in East Africa.
The 1983-84 drought was driven by rainfall deficits during four consecutive wet seasons over two years. Most research was conducted by monitoring five encampments in the central zone (i.e. lower semi-arid) where drought impacts were most severe. In terms of livestock management, an early response to the first failure of the long rains in April 1983 was to shift allocation of cattle from a ratio of 71:29 for home-based and satellite herds, respectively, to a ratio of 34:66 within seven months. Many of the satellite herds (consisting of hardy immatures, dry cows and males) moved from central zones to drought-reserve areas at the periphery of the central plateau during the first year. These reserves were characterised by either an improved forage base plus reliable deep wells (as in the Web region), or by flushes of forage production stimulated by more frequent rainfall at higher elevations (as to the north of Did Hara).
Once these reserves were depleted, satellite herds began to endure higher rates of losses and moved off the central plateau during the second year to secure grazing towards the southern Ethiopian highlands and in northern Kenya. The net result was a reduction of 50% in cattle density in the study area by 1985. Patterns for other livestock species were less well documented. Sheep and goat flocks may have travelled extensively in some situations, but overall they appeared to maintain their population densities in most locales compared with cattle during the drought. The small camel population appeared to increase during the drought by 45% and this was probably due to immigration of camels from adjacent regions.
The main effects of drought on the production system were mediated through cow nutrition due to reduced forage production. Compared with a dry season of an average rainfall year, the acute effects of the 1983-84 drought reduced daily milk offtake to an average household by 92% (i.e. from 5 l/family/day to 416 ml/family/day). Eighty per cent of this decline was caused by a drop in calving rate from 75 to 9%, with the remainder contributed by a drop in daily offtake per lactating cow from 500 to 260 ml. A minor part of this milk deficit was made up by small ruminants at Borana encampments, however, as 60% of 200 female goats and 50% of 113 ewes were lactating during the height of the drought.
Human diets were normally dominated by cow milk (55%) and cereals (32%) on a gross energy basis sufficient for maintenance and growth in average rainfall years. This shifted to a situation during drought in which cereals dominated (52%) compared with milk (14%) and meat and blood combined (2%), with an average per capita caloric deficit of 27%. The reported duration of acute hunger was 32 months from august 1983 to April 1986. People compensated for reduced food production by (1) prioritising young children to receive milk; (2) shifting diet composition for other age groups to include more cereals, meat and blood to accommodate needs of children; (3) reducing size and frequency of meals for adults and older youths; and (4) sending the elderly or other volunteers to famine relief camps as a last resort. Roughly 27% of surveyed households in 60 encampments changed location during the drought, but there was no evidence of mass migrations. The general impression was that most people attempted to stay in one place and wait out the drought.
Maize, sorghum, enset (Ensete ventricosum) and sugar were sources of food energy in the surveyed regions. Gathered bush foods (bulbs, fruits, gum and roots) assumed greater importance in drought but still represented opportunistic sources of nutrients rather than staples. Hunting was not important. Cattle hides were reportedly boiled and eaten in some instances. Famine relief did not occur until late 1985 and thus was largely unimportant during the two years of low rainfall (i.e. 1983-84). Human diets began to improve rapidly with the onset of average rainfall in April 1985. Although morbidity in the human population was widespread during the drought, surveys indicate that incidence of drought-induced mortality was low (i.e. %). About 18% of the population may have moved to famine relief camps by 1985. In a survey of 48 families in the upper semi-arid zone most families reported one birth during the drought suggesting that the human population grew, although at a rate slower than normal.
Besides dramatic declines in milk production, the other major effect of the drought was to reduce pastoral terms of trade by 90%. Pre-drought prices of Ethiopian Birr 1.00 per kilogram of live weight for cattle declined to Ethiopian Birr 0.30 by 1984. This was mirrored by an increase in maize prices from Ethiopian Birr 0.40 per kilogram to Ethiopian Birr 1.00 over the same time frame. Other important consumer goods increased in price while livestock species decreased in price. Cereals were thus commonly available in markets, but the high cost relative to livestock reduced effective demand. Low livestock prices resulted from high supply and low demand, particularly in the second drought year. The strategy of families during the first year may have been to sell a similar number of animals as in average rainfall years, but to use more of the income to purchase food grains (i.e. 66% versus 30% of income used to buy food). In contrast to the first year, animal offtake rates probably markedly increased in the second drought year in response to a much greater need for food. Although cattle were often documented to be sold to buy grain near the end of the drought, livestock were not always mentioned as the most important sources of income. A pert-urban sample of 48 pastoral households in the upper semi-arid zone revealed that milk, household utensils, firewood and other bush commodities were reportedly more important than livestock as frequent sources of income. Credit was not available from merchants for food purchases. Temporary employment as labourers was secured by members of 27% of 43 pert-urban households in the upper semi-arid zone.
Losses of assets due to drought were high. Monitored cattle herds experienced a net loss of 60% (N = 4143), with 42% lost to mortalities, 14% to sale and 4% to slaughter. Losses differentially occurred depending on age and sex class. A hypothesis is forwarded that cattle mortality occurs in distinct waves over time, with the most productive cows perishing earlier on. Cattle losses ranged from 40 to 90% of immatures, 45% of mature cows and 22% of mature males. Immatures were vulnerable because of lack of milk and low mobility while milking cows were vulnerable because of their higher nutritional requirements and tendency to be kept nearer to over-utilised encampment areas. Mature males were less vulnerable because of their general hardiness and high mobility. Mature males were more commonly sold to purchase grain. Small ruminants (N=788) experienced a 16% mortality rate, with 15% sold and 7% slaughtered. Net reduction in this population throughout the drought was minimal, however, because births tended to balance losses.
A survey of 96 Borana and Gabra households in the upper semi-arid zone indicated that effects of ethnic group and household wealth were important factors in mitigating asset losses. Poor households tended to have lower producing cows than wealthier households. Poor Borana and Gabra households lost 52% of their cattle compared with 28% for the wealthy due to higher rates of mortality, sales and slaughter. Poor Gabra lost over 60% of their camels compared with an average of 40% for other Gabra wealth classes.
There was thus no evidence that camels were any less susceptible to drought than cattle in terms of mortality in this instance. Key advantages in having camels, however, may lie more in terms of persistence of milk production for home consumption and sale and use of male camels for transporting grain. Interviews in the upper semi-arid zone suggested that at the height of the drought cows yielded an average milk offtake of 140 ml/head/day over a lactation period of six months, while camels yielded 770 ml/head/day over nine months. The overall pattern of livestock use during drought suggests that animals were not held for quick disposal or sale during times of stress. Instead, they appear to be assets which are held as long as possible in anticipation that conditions will soon improve. Families are apparently willing to undergo great hardship before they are forced to sell animals. This behaviour has large implications for exacerbating drought impacts on the population.
Due to favourable rainfall from 1985 onwards, the mature cow component of the regional herd had probably recovered in terms of numbers and productivity by 1989 (or even earlier). Thus the impact of the 1983-84 drought was felt for six years overall. Opportunistic cultivation of cereals by pastoralists during 1985-89 was an important means of ameliorating hunger, as were emergency feeding programmes during 1985-87. Deficient rainfall in 1990-91 again resulted in large losses of livestock, hardship for pastoralists and re-initiation of famine-relief activities.
It is concluded that the cattle production system is remarkably resilient, but that density-dependent factors are increasingly having negative effects on livestock populations and human welfare. In terms of cattle performance, the Borana system thus appears to be an equilibrial production system in which increased stocking rates raise the risk of negative impacts on animal mortality rates and productivity.
A hypothesis is forwarded that an apparent increased frequency and severity of drought on the Borana Plateau is ultimately an artefact of a high and unsustainable density of people and not a changing rainfall pattern. Traditional drought reserves are probably being increasingly compromised during normal rainfall years as a result of overflow human settlement and unregulated grazing. Opportunities for widespread dispersal of stock during drought are also becoming more limited as a result of general population increases in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya. The human condition on the Borana Plateau has been recently disrupted further by weapons proliferation, ethnic clashes and marketing interruptions culminating from the demise of the previous government in 1990. The ethnic clashes, in part, are probably attributable to competition for increasingly scarce grazing and water resources.
