C - Estimates of Future Rice Needs and Sources of Growth

This appendix provides details of:

(i) the simple demand projections;
(ii) the estimation of the supply increases sufficient to match the projected needs; and
(iii) the decomposition of the growth in supply into its components.

(i) Demand Projections

These were based on the following assumptions:

(a) that the price of rice was to remain constant in real terms;

(b) that there would be no inter-regional trade in rice; i.e., the projected needs would be met from supplies within the region, including the possibility of intraregional trade. The rates and projections by regions are given in Table 3.4.

(ii) Supply Increases

Much of the increase in output will have to come from higher yields, although some allowance was made for growth in area in some regions. The basic assumptions about the yield ceilings and yield gaps are set out in Appendix Table C. 1. The attained yields projected for 2030 are those, which together with increase in area sown and/or cropping intensity, would generate sufficient additional rice to meet the projected demands. A summary of the indicative increases is given in Appendix Table C.2.

(iii) Sources of Growth

The total output increase in each region and ecosystem was decomposed into three parts. Firstly the amount attributable to increased area and/or cropping intensity was estimated. The balance of the required output then had to come from increased yields. The yield component was further disaggregated into (a) that due to a reduction in the yield gap assuming the existing yield ceiling; and (b) that due to an increase in the yield ceiling itself. Summaries of the results follow in Tables C.3 to C.4.

Table C.1: Yield Ceilings and Gaps: Assumptions for 1986-88 and 2030

Region/ Ecosystem		1986-88					2030
		Actual Yield	Ceiling		Gap		Ceiling	Gap	Attained
		t/ha.	t/ha.	As a % of Actual Yield	t/ha.	%	t/ha.	%	t/ha.
Asia	IRR	4.5	9.5	48	5.0	52	13.0	35	8.5
	RFL	2.2	7.0	32	4.8	68	9.0	53	4.2
	UPL	1.3	4.5	29	3.2	71	6.0	59	2.5
	DWT	1.5	5.0	30	5.3	70	7.0	60	2.8
China	IRR	5.3	10.5	51	5.2	49	13.0	25	9.8
SSA	IRR	2.1	8.0	26	5.9	74	12.0	33	8.0
	RFL	1.7	6.0	28	4.3	73	8.5	53	4.5
	UPL	1.2	4.3	29	3.1	71	5.5	64	2.0
	DWT	1.1	4.0	21	2.9	74	6.0	50	3.0
LAC	IRR	4.0	9.5	42	4.5	58	13.0	35	8.5
	RFL	2.5	7.0	36	4.5	64	8.0	53	3.4
	UPL	1.2	4.5	27	3.3	73	5.0	60	2.0
	DWT	1.2	5.0	23	3.8	77	7.0	71	2.0
WANA	IRR	5.7	10.0	57	4.3	43	14.0	15	11.9

Table C.2: Level and Distribution of Indicative Output Increases By Region and Ecosystem

Region	Ecosystem	Increases in Outputa from 1986-88 to 2030 mt	Distribution of Increased Output %
Asia (excl. China)	IRR	160.4	29.9
	RFL	103.5	19.3
	UPL	22.9	4.3
	DWT	15.1	2.8
	Sub-total	301.9	56.3
China	IRR	187.6	35.0
SSA	IRR	8.0	1.5
	RFL	6.3	1.2
	UPL	5.8	1.1
	DWT	0.3	0.1
	Sub-total	20.4	3.8
LAC	IRR	13.9	2.6
	RFL	1.5	0.3
	UPL	4.8	0.9
	DWT	0.1	0.0
	Sub-total	20.4	3.8
WANA	IRR	5.7	1.1
TOTAL		535.9	100.0

^a Needed to meet the projected level of rice demand.

Table C.3: Sources of Output Growth By Region and Ecosystem

Region	Ecosystem	Sources and Output Growth
		Reduce the Yield Gap mt	Raise the Yield Ceiling mt	Additional Area Harvested mt	Interaction Effect mt	Total
Asia (excl. China)	IRR	49.9	68.9	22.2	19.3	160.4
	RFL	39.4	34.8	15.4	13.9	103.5
	UPL	9.0	10.2	1.9	1.7	22.9
	DWT	5.8	9.3	0.0	0.0	15.1
China	Total	82.5	61.2	24.0	19.5	187.6
SSA	IRR	3.3	2.7	0.5	1.4	8.0
	RFL	1.4	1.4	1.4	2.0	6.3
	UPL	0.9	1.2	2.4	1.4	5.8
	DWT	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.3
LAC	IRR	5.8	6.1	1.0	1.1	13.9
	RFL	0.7	0.4	0.3	0.1	1.5
	UPL	2.4	0.8	1.0	0.6	4.8
	DWT	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
WANA	Total	2.4	2.9	0.2	0.2	5.7

Table C.4a: Sources of Output Growth Within Ecosystems

Ecosystem	Reduce the Yield Gap	Raise the Yield Ceiling	Increase Area Harvested	Interaction	Total
	%	%	%	%	%
IRR	38	38	13	11	100
RFL	37	33	15	14	100
UPL	37	37	16	11	100
DWT	39	61	0	0	100
Total	38	37	13	12	100

Table C.4b: Sources of Output Growth Within Regions

Region	Reduce the Yield Gap	Raise the Yield Ceiling	Increase Area Harvested	Interaction	Total
	%	%	%	%	%
Asia (excl. China)	34	41	13	12	100
China	44	33	13	11	100
SSA	28	27	21	24	100
LAC	43	37	11	9	100
WANA	42	51	4	4	100
Total	38	37	13	12	100