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Reference Date: 12-November-2021


  1. Output of 2021 second season maize and paddy crops expected at below‑average level

  2. Cereal import requirements forecast to increase in 2021/22

  3. Prices of rice stable between June and September 2021

  4. Low food availability and access affect about 4.3 million people

Output of 2021 second season maize and paddy crops expected at below‑average level

Harvesting of the 2021 minor second season maize and paddy crops is ongoing and production is expected at a below‑average level. This is mainly due to overall below‑average rainfall amounts between August and September, which hampered normal crop development (VHI map). Unfavourable production prospects were exacerbated by a series of adverse weather events ( GIEWS Update ). In mid‑August, a 7.2‑magnitude earthquake struck the southern region and caused extensive damages to agricultural and market infrastructures. Two days after, a tropical depression brought heavy rains and strong winds in Sud and Sud‑Est departments, triggering flooding and landslides.

Land preparation of the 2021 minor third season has recently started in November. The current soil moisture deficits are likely to be reduced by average precipitation amounts, forecast for the November 2021 to January 2022 period. However, the planted area is anticipated to remain at a below‑average level, mainly reflecting costly and scarce agricultural inputs, including seeds and fuel.

Cereal import requirements forecast to increase in 2021/22

The cereal import requirements for the 2021/22 marketing year (July/June), mostly wheat and rice, are anticipated at a slightly above‑average level of 810 000 tonnes. The large import requirements mainly reflect the below‑average rice production in 2021 as well as the reduced imports in 2020. The demand for wheat products is forecast at a near‑average level, as high international wheat prices are expected to limit the increase in demand.

Prices of rice stable between June and September 2021

Prices of maize have generally weakened between May and September in line with seasonal trends. Similarly, prices of black beans started to decrease since August reflecting improved market availabilities from the ongoing harvests. In the disaster‑affected southern areas, food assistance reportedly contributed to the weakening of retail demand, adding downward pressure on prices. Prices of imported rice held steady during the June to September period in the capital market reflecting the stable export prices in the United States of America, the major rice supplier to the country. Prices of other imported food items have been reportedly on the rise following the steady depreciation of the national currency, which lost more than 30 percent of its value during the first nine months of 2021. The worsening insecurity and violence reportedly continue to have negative impacts on access to food, especially in urban areas.

Low food availability and access affect about 4.3 million people

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 4.3 million people (44 percent of the population analysed) are forecast to be severely food insecure from September 2021 to February 2022. The worst situations are reported in the departments of Nord‑Ouest, Centre (the Haut Plateau), Sud and Nippes, which are classified to be in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

The country’s food security situation has been worsening since 2018 due to a series of factors. The availability of domestically produced staple crops has been reducing during the past four years, affected by frequent natural disasters and the low availability of agricultural inputs. Vulnerable households’ access to food has been worsening, constrained by the high level of food prices and declining income‑earning opportunities amid the economic downturn. The negative effects of the COVID‑19 pandemic further eroded local livelihoods. The reduced mobility of people and commodities due to road blockage and increasing insecurity has contributed to hamper food access. The ongoing political crisis is likely to further stress food security conditions.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.