Caution and vigilance are required during October and November
The current Desert Locust situation remains calm but there is reason for caution.
It appears that the persistent good rains over the northern Sahel of West Africa have nearly ended. Despite the widespread rains and the favourable ecological conditions that ensued, very little breeding was detected by surveys carried out in Mauritania, Niger and Chad during September. Nevertheless, locust numbers gradually increased and there may be more locusts present than reported. Consequently, once vegetation begins to dry out, there is a low to moderate risk that locusts may concentration and form a few small groups in parts of Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad and Sudan during October.
There will also be a gradual shift of locusts from southern to northwest Mauritania, from northern Mali and Niger to southern Algeria, and from the interior of Sudan to the winter breeding areas along the Red Sea coast. Good rains have already fallen on the coast of Eritrea and in some areas of Yemen and Saudi Arabia that could lead to early breeding.
Therefore, caution should be exercised and strict vigilance maintained in all countries during October and November.
In Southwest Asia, low numbers of adults were present in Pakistan along the border with India. As the monsoon rains have ended, no significant developments are expected.