FAO Fisheries Circular No. 1001
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
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Brugère, C.; Ridler, N.
Aquaculture production is expected to play a crucial role in forthcoming decades in compensating for stagnant capture fisheries and in meeting increased demand for aquatic products. Designed to ascertain the compatibility of national aquaculture production forecasts with the global prevision of the sector's growth to 2020 and beyond, the report attempts to answer three questions:
1) Do individual countries have the ambition to expand their aquaculture sector to meet global demand forecasts, and are their projections realistic?
2) Is the "sum" of national production forecasts compatible with global projections of anticipated requirements from the aquaculture sector?
3) What planning lessons can be learnt from examining individual country plans, and how could the process of aquaculture planning be improved?
Three global forecasts (Delgado et al., 2003; Wijkström, 2003; Ye, 1999) were used as a benchmark against which countries ambitions were assessed through an analysis of the contents of their national aquaculture development plans.
Results showed that the countries studied do wish to expand their aquaculture output and, with some exceptions, their assumptions were realistic as most governments appeared to endorse the sectors growth. Aggregation quantitative production targets from the national plans indicated that global forecasts may have underestimated the future supply of fish food coming from aquaculture. The future expansion of Chinese aquaculture remains critical but using a modest 2 percent annual growth rate and without increases in food fish output from capture fisheries, results suggested that most of the demand projections for fish would be met in three forthcoming decades. Thus, aggregated country productions from aquaculture are expected to grow at an average annual growth rate of 4.5 percent over the period 2010 - 2030. In terms of planning, appraisal of plans and strategies revealed a generally weak planning process as methodologies and procedures tended to be sketchily reported. A planning framework with issues to address is suggested with the back-up of a consensus-building technique such as the Delphi method to improve the quality of future plans and enable an evaluation of their likelihood of success, as transparency, legitimacy and agreement are key to the success of a plan.
Aquaculture, production forecasts, demand, national plans, sector planning, global outlook.
© FAO 2004
PREPARATION OF THIS DOCUMENT
1. METHODOLOGY: APPROACH AND CONSTRAINTS
1.1 Selection of countries, collection and analysis of national information
1.2 Framework for analysis of the contents of national aquaculture development strategies and plans
1.3 Evaluation of existing global forecasts (supply and demand) and realism of assumptions for national aquaculture production forecasts
1.4 Comparison of the "sum" of national forecasts with global projections
1.5 Planning lessons
1.6 Limitations of the study
2. RESULTS: GLOBAL FORECASTS AND NATIONAL PLANS
2.1 Global forecasts
2.1.1 Future global aquaculture production
2.1.2 Regional perspectives
2.2 National projections
2.2.1 The "sum" of national production targets - comparison between global and national forecasts
2.2.2 Constraints to growth
3. PLANNING LESSONS
3.1 Planning: a rational process
3.2 Planning methods
3.2.1 Types of planning
3.2.2 Participation and consensus
3.3 Reflections on aquaculture country plans and strategies
3.3.1 What are the criteria for a successful planning process?
3.3.2 What should be the assumptions and factors upon which to base projections?
3.3.3 What decision-making methods are most suitable, and in which context?
4.1 Aquaculture forecasts
4.2 Aquaculture planning
APPENDIX 1: SUMMARY OF CONTENTS OF COUNTRY PLANS
APPENDIX 2: NOTES AND COUNTRY PLAN REFERENCES
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