Chapter VI - Asia and the tropical far east

6.1 Introduction
6.2 Regional situation in 1980
6.3 Prospects for the tear 2000
6.4 Typology of deficit situations and feasibility of forestry solutions

6.1 Introduction

The countries of Asia and the tropical Far East as a whole are characterized by having been inhabited since ancient times by human beings who over the centuries have managed the resources necessary for their existence. This applies particularly to the woody resources necessary for domestic and artisanal energy consumption.

But the balance that had been established has now been upset in many zones as a result of the considerable growth in population during the last 30 years and the simultaneous extension of cultivated land. The situation has also been aggravated by the demands of industrial development, a consumer of woody material. Many zones are already in an obviously critical situation, while others run the risk of this in the near future in view of the extremely high growth rate of population.

The countries concerned are:

- the countries of southern Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka;

- the countries of continental South - East Asia: Burma, Kampuchea, Lao , Thailand, Vietnam;

- the countries of insular South-East Asia: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Papua New Guinea;

- the Republic of Korea.

6.2 Regional situation in 1980

6.2.1 Populations concerned and their energy needs
6.2.2 Woody resources utilizable as a source of energy
6.2.3 Identification and nature of the various categories of situation
6.2.4 Regional summary

6.2.1 Populations concerned and their energy needs

The total number of people living in this region of the world in 1980 can be estimated at about 1 196 million, or 27 percent of the world's total population. 13.4 percent of this population, or 160 million, live in towns with more than 100 000 inhabitants, and 86.6 percent, or 1 036 million, in rural areas or towns with less than 100 000 inhabitants which for the most part are no more than concentrations of rural people whose customs and way of life differ little from those of the true country folk.

According to statistics, the output of fuelwood and wood for charcoal - making in 1980 in the countries concerned was 570 million m³, or 86 percent of total removals. Fuelwood provided more than one-third of total energy consumption, not including the agricultural residues that in certain countries, such as India, account for a considerable part of this consumption. In four countries - Kampuchea, Lao , Nepal and Viet Nam - fuel-wood represents more than three-quarters of energy supplies.

Energy needs (for domestic and artisanal uses, for the incineration of corpses) vary according to customs and climate and also according to whether the environment is rural or urban.

In rural areas domestic consumption is preponderant. The major item is food cooking. Requirements are met from various fuel sources: hedge bushes, the branches of fruit trees and trees in row plantations, small farm woodlots, often isolated trees supply the fuelwood that is collected each day by the women and children. In addition to agricultural residues, animal dung represents an important part of the energy resources - as much as 50 percent -in all the countries of southern Asia. This use is often due more to tradition than to necessity, because dung is used even if fuelwood is abundant. Per capita consumption of woody material is therefore less than 0.6/m³ in the countries of southern Asia: Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Burma,

In rural areas considerable amounts of fuelwood are consumed for artisanal purposes but unfortunately no valid statistics on this consumption exist. Local studies have shown that it may attain 50 to 60 percent of domestic consumption, woody material accounting for no more than about 20 percent. Energy resources are also necessary to cover requirements for festivities - particularly marriages - during which consumption is four or five times greater, and for the burning of corpses in the Hindu religion.

Finally, in the cold, lofty Himalayan countries - Afghanistan, Bhutan, Nepal, Northwestern India - the need to keep warm considerably increases energy requirements, which are two or three times greater than in the warm tropical zones, woody material representing almost all the energy resources.

In urban areas, the density of population results in a decrease in the size of households and hence in the size of courtyards, making open-air cooking difficult. More suitable, although expensive, sources of energy are therefore sought. As a result there is a decrease in the consumption of woody material, which represents only 15 to 20 percent of energy consumption.

This results, however, in particularly difficult situations for the poor sectors of the urban population, whose purchasing power is insufficient to cope with the costs of commercial energy (oil, electricity, gas, coal). In addition to domestic consumption, note must also be taken of consumption for artisanal and industrial purposes, which in certain sectors continues to be met partly from woody material. This is the case for bakeries and pastry-makers, laundries, lime and brick kilns, ceramic and pottery works, the sugar and beverage industries, hotels and hospitals.

To sum up, on the basis of the information supplied by the various regional and local studies conducted in Asia in recent years, it may be estimated that the average energy needs of the populations are as follows:

(1) Desert and sub-desert regions

Consumption is reduced by the nomadic way of life of the populations, who need an average of 0.3 to 0.5 m³/person/year.

(2) Agricultural regions situated in dry tropical zones

In these zones the results of the various consumption surveys made show the following average distribution of the various types of energy products.

Type of fuel	Percentage used by type of fuel
Commercial (gas, electricity, coal, oil	10 to 2.0%	)	30 to 70% non-wood
		)
Animal dung	20 to 50%	)
Agricultural residues	20 to 40%	)	30 to 70% wood and plant material
		)
Wood (and charcoal)	20 to 50%	)

Since minimum needs are between 6 GJ and 10 GJ/person/year, or between 0.65 and 1,05 m³/person/year (of equivalent woody material), "fuelwood" ¹ needs therefore vary between 0.20 and 0,75 m³/person/year.

¹ Wood (and charcoal) plus woody agricultural residues.

(3) Agricultural regions situated in moist tropical zones

The energy requirements of the populations in these zones are between 8 GJ and 12 GJ/ person/year, or 0.85 to 1.3 m³/person/year of equivalent woody material. Requirements are slightly higher than in the preceding zone owing to the humidity of the air and hence of the fuel. They are met from the following types of resources:

Type of fuel	Percentage used by type of fuel
Commercial fuels	10 to 20%	30 to 60% non-wood
Animal dung	20 to 40%
Agricultural residues	20 to 40%	40 to 70% wood and plant material
Wood and charcoal	20 to 50%

"Fuelwood" needs therefore vary between 0.3 and 0.90 m³/person/year.

(4) Regions of shifting agriculture in closed moist forests

Domestic energy consumption is high - 10 to 14 GJ/person/year and consists largely (80%) of fuelwood; annual fuelwood needs are therefore between 0.90 and 1.35 m³ per person.

(5) Mountainous regions in which energy needs are high owing to the necessity to keep warm

The energy consumption of the people in these regions can be estimated as follows:

Type of fuel	Percentage used per type of fuel
Commercial (gas, electricity, coal, oil)	5 to 10%	15 to 30% non-wood
Animal dung	10 to 20%
Agricultural residues	0 to 5%	70 to 85% woody and plant
Wood and charcoal	65 to 85%

Since the overall level of requirements is between 17 and 20 GJ/person/year, or between 1.8 and 2.1 m³/person/year, annual fuelwood requirements vary between 1.25 and 1.8 m³/person.

6.2.2 Woody resources utilizable as a source of energy

(a) Natural formations

Asia is covered by five main physiognomic types of forest vegetation:

(1) Closed monsoon forests, often of a semi-deciduous nature, covering part of the Indian peninsula, with a fuelwood yield - after extraction of timber - of between 1 and 3 m³/ha/year, according to the region ¹. The "productive" areas of these forests are estimated at 43 million hectares in 1980 ² out of a total of 52.6 million hectares.

(2) Closed, moist evergreen forests in lowland and hill areas in continental and insular East Asia, with an average fuelwood yield of more than 3 m³/ha/year.

The productive area is estimated at 149 million hectares, out of a total of 239.4 million hectares.

(3) Coniferous forests usually situated in mountainous areas and with an average fuelwood yield of about 2 m³ /ha/year.

The total area is estimated at 8.4 million ha in 1980, of which 5.6 million are considered productive.

(4) Open forests and wooded savanna with a forest cover of between 10 and 80 percent, and a fuelwood yield of between 0.5 and 1 m³/ha/year. The area producing fuelwood is estimated at 31 million ha.

(5) Shrub formations with a fuelwood yield of between 0.1 and 0.2 m³/ha/year, covering a total area of 36 million hectares.

¹ Figures indicated by the "Pre-investment Survey of Forest Resources", Dehra Dun, India.

² Source: UNEP/FAO project on evaluation of tropical forest resources, 1981.

To these "natural" formations are added. the zones of forest fallow, which are secondary formations ranging from thickets to young high forests, the area of which was estimated in 1980 at 71 million hectares of broadleaved forest fallow and one million hectares of coniferous forest fallow.

Finally Korea, which owing to its "temperate" ecological position must be mentioned separately, has about 5 million hectares of forest, half broadleaved and half coniferous. The situation in the different countries varies greatly as regards the extent of the natural forest cover as compared with the density of the population:

- Afghanistan, Pakistan, India (with the exception of western Bengal), Bangladesh, southern Sri Lanka, the hills of Nepal, the central and northern part of the Philippines, Java and South Korea have a wooded area per inhabitant of less than 0,1 ha. This situation is aggravated by the generally low productivity of these forest formations - with the exception of the forests of South Korea - composed largely of closed broadleaved forests and open forests.

- Western Bengal, Nepal Terai, northern Sri Lanka, Lower Burma, Thailand, Viet Nam, peninsular Malaysia, the Island of Mindanao in the Philippines, and Sumatra, have a wooded area per inhabitant of between 0.2 and 1 hectare; but many zones are inaccessible because they are too far from the zones of human concentration, and the pressure of the populations on the forest areas around them is very heavy.

- Upper Burma, Bhutan, Kampuchea, Lao , Sarawak and Shaba, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, the Celebes, Irian and Papua New Guinea have wooded areas per inhabitant exceeding 1.5 ha and reaching 5 ha per inhabitant in Borneo and New Guinea.

(b) Forest plantations

(i) A certain number of countries (India, Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, Viet Nam) have established forest plantations for the purpose of producing fuelwood or charcoal. These plantations consist of fast-growing species grown on a short rotation. Few valid statistics exist on the species and age composition of these plantations. The total area planted is estimated at about 3 100 000 ha, of which 1 600 000 are in tropical countries and 1 500 000 in Korea.

(ii) As regards forest plantations for industrial purposes, better statistics are available on the areas planted to softwoods (about 600 000 hectares, of which 430 000 hectares are in Indonesia) and hardwoods (about 2.9 million ha, of which 1.5 million are in India and 1 million in Indonesia), and on the relative merits of slow-growing species with a long rotation, such as Shorea robust a, Tectona grandis, Juglans regia, Aesculus indica for hardwoods and Cedrus deodara, Pinus roxburghii, Abies pindrow for softwoods, and. fast-growing species with a short rotation, such as Eucalyptus sp. , Dalbergia sissoo, Morus alba, Fraxinus sp. and the Cryptomeria and tropical pines. Only species with a long rotation are thinned, and part of the thinnings can be used as fuelwood. In both cases it may be estimated that 30 percent of the volume of the final yield is utilizable as fuelwood.

In Korea the area estimated in 19.90 was 260 000 ha of broadleaved species poplar and willow - and 830000 ha of conifers.

(iii) The total volume of fuelwood from plantations specifically grown for fuelwood and from the residues from plantations established to produce timber is estimated as follows:

Countries of Southern Asia:	31 million m³
Lowland' hill and delta countries of South-east Asia:	15 million m³
Closed forest countries in South-east Asia:	0.7 million m³
South Korea:	20 million m³

The annual volume available therefore appears to be extremely low, with the exception of South Korea, where the reforestation effort is already providing the population with a considerable amount of fuelwood.

(c) Other natural woody resources: row plantations, hedges, village woodlots, orchards, trees scattered over arable land.

In Asia these resources constitute a very important source of woody material for domestic use and in particular as an energy raw material. They are present throughout the settled rural areas, but it is very difficult to evaluate the amount of fuelwood they supply. The following estimates are put forward:

(i) Trees are often planted along roads railways and canals in order to give shade and provide a not inconsiderable amount of wood. However, statistics are usually silent on the extent of these row plantations. As regards countries with settled rural communities, an extrapolation to all areas of an average number of ten trees per km³ in cultivated zones, with a yield per tree of 0.13 m³/year, or 5 m³ at 40 years, makes it possible to estimate the total supplies.

(ii) Woodlots with an area of less than 10 ha exist all around the villages. They serve as shelter for the cattle and as a source of fuelwood. These woodlots are usually not managed and badly maintained. In the absence of valid statistics, the area occupied by these woodlots and their yield has to be estimated on the basis of acquired local experience. They may thus be estimated at 5 to 10 percent of the agricultural area and the average yield at between 0.2 and 0.5 m³/ha/year.

(iii) The case of orchards is similar. These belong to private individuals rather than the community. The trees are grown for fruit, but a certain amount of wood is obtained through pruning and the fall of branches. Finally the old trees are cut down to be replaced when fruit yield falls. The area can be estimated at 5 to 10 percent of the agricultural land and the yield at 0.1 to 0.2 m³/ha/year.

(iv) Isolated trees, fruit trees and others, such as Melia azedarach and some species of Ficus, Ailanthus, Populus, and Salix, are plated in the courtyards of houses' the squares and approaches to villages, and in the fields, mainly to provide shade and fodder. Fuelwood is also obtained from these trees, which number about 3 to 5 per hectare and produce 0.01 to 0.02 m³ of fuelwood per tree per year.

(d) Woody residues from agriculture and industry

(i) Industrial waste: about 30 percent of the volume of lumber and industrial wood ends as waste - sawdust, shavings, etc. Half of this can be used as a source of energy.

(ii) Agricultural residues: these constitute an important resource in Asia. The various types are listed below, with the estimated equivalent in wood fuel per ton of product:

- rice husks	0.25 to 0.3 m³ equivalent woody material per ton of product
- groundnut shells
- coconut shells
- sugarcane bagasse
- maize, sorghum, castor beans, cottonseed	1 m³ per ton of product cottonseed
- Cassava, kenaf, natural rubber	4 m³ per ton of product
- jute and hemp	2 to 2.5 m³ per ton of product
- coffee	8 m³ per ton of product
- miscellaneous	0.2 to 0.5 m³/ha cultivated.

In the estimates made of the amounts available, account has been taken of the need to return to the soil 50 percent of the agricultural residues in order to maintain the recycling of organic matter. For many countries the figures are obtained by extrapolation from neighbouring countries.

6.2.3 Identification and nature of the various categories of situation

The zone-by-zone analysis showed that the situations could be classified into six categories relatively homogeneous as regards areas and productivity of the natural woody vegetation on the one hand, and population density and level of needs on the other. These categories are:

- Category 1: desert and sub-desert zones usually sparsely populated but with scanty forest resources;

- Category 2: high mountain zones more or less heavily populated and with limited and/or inaccessible forest resources;

- Category 3: densely-populated zones situated in regions not climatically favourable to forests, which cover only a limited area;

- Category 4: densely-populated zones situated in regions climatically favourable to forests, which have largely been cleared;

- Category 5: forest zones with a rapidly growing population leading to rapid extension of clearing;

- Category 6: closed forest zones with very large forest resources and usually a small population;

- South Korea: geographically removed from the other countries and presenting special characteristics, to be treated separately.

(a) Category 1

This comprises western Pakistan (Baluchistan) and western Afghanistan. These zones cover a large area of 87.7 million ha populated, by 10.3 million people, 92 percent of them rural.

The areas covered by woody vegetation are very small (one million "productive" hectares altogether) and consist mainly of open, mixed forest-grassland, formations and shrub formations. Because of the low yield of these formations (0.1 to 0.2 m³/ha), the vastness of the area, which reduces the zones accessible to the people to 10 percent, the absence of plantations and the rarity of trees on agricultural land, the accessible supply of woody material is very small: 0.01 to 0.02 m³/person/year. The supply of agricultural residues is also small (0.01 m³/ha/year), owing to the limited extent of cultivated land.

There is thus a considerable fuelwood deficit - more than 0.35 m³/person/year -leading to overcutting of the existing vegetation and consequent desertification of the rangelands.

(b) Category 2

This comprises the high mountain areas of the Himalayas: north-eastern Afghanistan, north-western India, northern Nepal. These zones cover a total area of 52.3 million ha inhabited by 30.7 million people, 26.5 million of whom (i.e. 93 percent) are rural.

Forest vegetation covers only a limited area - about 7 million productive hectares - of which 2 million hectares consist of high altitude coniferous forests, and the rest of more or less open and degraded broadleaved forests and many shrub formations. Average productivity is calculated at about 0,6 m³/ha/year. If the supply from farm woodlots and woody agricultural residues is added to the accessible supply from the natural formations (estimated at 80% of apparent supply), this gives a total accessible supply of 0,20 to 0.25 m³/person/year, which is far below the high level of needs for woody material caused by the harsh climate (1.25 to 1.8 m³/person/year). There is therefore a deficit of 1 to 1.6 m³/person/year.

Hence there is necessarily overcutting of part of the natural woody vegetation, which is becoming increasingly degraded, and over-use of the woody agricultural residues, the entire amount being used instead of at least part of it being dug back into the arable land. The present situation of acute scarcity forces certain poor populations to limit their consumption to below their real needs. This applies particularly to Afghanistan and Nepal.

(c) Category 3

This comprises the countries of the plains and valleys in the north of the Indian subcontinent; eastern and north-eastern Pakistan (Indus Valley), north-western and northern India (Gujarat, Rajasthan and the Ganges Valley), and southern Nepal. A population of 331.8 million lives on a total area of 175 million hectares - 13 percent, or 43.8 million, in towns with more than 100 000 inhabitants. The rural areas are densely populated - more than 200 people per km² in many places.

The "productive" natural forests consist essentially of semi-deciduous dry and moist forests (11 million productive hectares), relatively low-yielding, and open, mixed grassland-forestry formations (4.8 million hectares), the latter including shrub formations already considerably degraded owing to uncontrolled grazing. The total accessible supply (50 percent of the apparent supply) is only 8 million m³ , or 0.03 m³/person/year. Fuel-wood plantations and the thinnings from industrial plantations provide an additional 0.01 m³/person/year, farm woodlots 0.12 m³/person/year, and woody residues from crops 0.03 m³/person/year. The total supply normally accessible to the rural populations, whose needs have been estimated at between 0.20 and 0.70 m³/person/year, therefore amounts to 0.19 m³/person/year. There is therefore a deficit almost everywhere, resulting in continuing degradation of the natural woody formations and extensive use of all agricultural wood waste, thus accentuating degradation of the soils which are already frequently over-utilized.

The towns situated in these zones are theoretically deprived of almost any possibility of procuring wood fuel for domestic energy. At most they can use industrial wood waste, of which the average supply is 0.09 m³/urban inhabitant/year, but wood from the rural zones is rare and expensive, resulting in a situation of very acute scarcity for the poorest sectors of the population.

(d) Category 4

This comprises the Indian peninsula (Deccan) with the exception of the northeastern part (Orissa and Madhya Pradesh), Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and the heavily-populated zones of South-East Asia: central Thailand, coastal plains and deltas of Viet Nam, Java, the central Philippine islands.

These zones, covering a total area of 174 million hectares, had a population of 489.7 million in 1980 - 412.5 million in rural areas or towns with less than 100 000 inhabitants in which the way of life is very similar to that in the countryside. About 16 percent of the population (77.2 million) lives in towns with more than 100 000 inhabitants.

In all these zones the forests have been extensively cleared and survive only on hilly land, where they continue to be subjected to heavy pressure by people' looking both for wood products and for new land. Closed, moist, broadleaved forests still cover 10.6 million hectares, and coniferous forests about 300 000 hectares. Forest fallows, or more exactly zones where small stands of intact forest, of less than 10 hectares, are mingled with new forest growth and cultivated plots, cover a considerable area (more than 3 million ha). Finally, open forest, wooded savanna and savanna with trees cover a considerable area in central India and in Thailand (more than 3 million ha) to which should be added some 3 million ha of shrub formations. However, compared with the total area and the size of the population these forest resources are very small. The annual accessible supply of fuelwood (60 percent of the apparent supply) is estimated at only 21 million m³ , or 0.05 m³/person/year.

Plantations, situated mainly in India, Viet Nam and Java, provide a theoretical average annual supply of 0.01 m³/person/year, and the farm woodlots relatively frequent in the countryside, an amount estimated at 0.15 m³/person/year. Altogether, therefore, including the supply of woody material from agricultural residues (0.05 m³/person/year), the total annual supply is 0.26 m³/person/year, while needs are estimated at between 0.30 and 0.90 m³/person/year. There is therefore a deficit of woody material almost everywhere, with the exception of some zones in India (central and northern Deccan), some hills in Thailand and Java, some parts of north-eastern Sri Lanka and a few small islands in the central Philippines where population density is lower. Everywhere else the rural populations over-use all the available woody material - forest vegetation and agricultural residues - degrading both vegetation and soils.

The towns situated in these zones cannot obtain sufficient supplies of fuelwood and the poor cannot cover their energy needs, estimated, at 4 to 6 GJ/person/year, of which 30 to 70 percent consists of fuelwood, or 0.5 m³/person/year).

(e) Category 5

This comprise the closed forest zones where the forest is being continually eaten away by clearing for agricultural purposes: the Indian states of Orissa and Madhya Pradesh, Lower Burma, north-western Sumatra, the interior of Viet Nam, northern Philippines (Luzon), the southern part of Sulawesi and the Sunda islands in Indonesia. The total population is estimated at 161.3 million, of which 147.1 million (91 percent) live in rural areas. The total area is 139 million hectares.

The forest resources consist essentially of moist, closed forests in the lowlands and hills (30 million productive hectares), together with 0.5 million ha of productive coniferous forests (in Burma, Viet Nam and the Philippines). Forest fallows occupy a considerable area (about 38 million ha), and the zones situated in Indonesia and India contain open forests, wooded savanna and shrub formations (a total of 12 million productive hectares). The annual accessible supply (estimated at 60 percent of the apparent supply) is about 90 million m³, or an average supply per rural inhabitant of 0.6 m³/person/year. Plantations provide only a very limited amount (0.03 m³/person/year), and farm woodlots, less abundant than in the preceding zones, an average of 0.08 m³/person/year. The total supply is therefore 0.70 m³/person/year which, together with the fairly abundant supplies of woody agricultural residues (0.08 m³/person/year) more or less cover needs, which are between 0.50 and 0.90 m³/person/year. This level of needs is higher than that of the preceding categories because in these zones the people use less animal dung.

In 1980 there was therefore an approximate balance between supplies and needs in these rural zones. In the towns, where 14.2 million live, the situation is less favourable for the poor sectors. Owing to lack of sufficient cash income they have to reduce their requirements, since fuelwood is relatively expensive because there is little surplus in the rural areas, and despite the relative abundance of industrial wood waste (0.10 m³/person/ year considering only the urban populations).

(f) Category 6

This comprises all the northern hilly and mountainous regions of continental South-East Asia (Bhutan, north-eastern India, northern Burma, Lao , upper Thailand and Kampuchea), and the little populated regions of closed forest of insular South - East Asia (Malaysian peninsula, south-eastern Sumatra, Borneo, Mindanao, northern Sulawesi, the Moluccas, New Guinea).

A population of 134.1 million, largely rural (96 percent of the total population) occupies vast stretches generally covered by forests. The productive area is estimated at 140 million hectares of closed, broadleaved forests and 2.1 million hectares of coniferous forests. If the areas of open forest and savanna (65.6 million ha) and the 28 million ha of fallow are added to these, the apparent annual supply is about 500 million m³ . Assuming that at present only 40 percent of this supply is really accessible, the average supply per inhabitant is about 1.55 m³/person/year. Needs are therefore covered even without taking into account the resources provided by farm woodlots and agricultural residues. However, certain regions of north-eastern India and of Malaysia are undoubtedly in a less satisfactory situation than Irian or Papua New Guinea, where the supply per inhabitant is more than 5 m³/person/year.

(g) The Republic of Korea has 38.1 million inhabitants, a considerable proportion of whom (40% or 16.8 million) live in big towns where the way of life is very modern and almost no fuelwood is consumed. Natural woody formations, consisting half of broadleaved and half of coniferous species, cover a total of 4.3 million productive hectares. The relatively low yield of these temperate forests as compared with that of tropical forests produces a total annual fuelwood supply equal to about 9 million m³ , or 0.35 m³/rural inhabitant/year, assuming that 20 percent of the area remains inaccessible to the population. The many plantations established (1 500 000 ha of fuelwood plantations and 1 100 000 ha of industrial plantations) provide a considerable amount of fuelwood: 20 million m³/year, or 0.9 m³/rural inhabitant/year. This, together with the many farm woodlots (0.03 m³/person/year) and woody agricultural residues (0.10 to 0.15 m³/person/ year) makes it possible to meet all the fuelwood needs of the rural populations. The overall situation is therefore satisfactory, thanks above all to the substantial contribution made by the forest plantations.

6.2.4 Regional summary

(a) Rural areas

The following tables show respectively:

- the total supplies of woody material
- the supplies of woody material per inhabitant
- the present overall balance.

They demonstrate the seriousness of the situation in the desert and sub-desert countries of Pakistan and Afghanistan and all the heavily populated lowland and delta zones of Categories 3 and 4, and above all in the Himalayan zones of Category 2.

In all these countries fuelwood consumption is very often greater than the level of supplies compatible with sustained production. There is therefore almost always over-cutting of the wooded zones, resulting in constant degradation of the wood capital, whose productivity per hectare is continually decreasing. In certain cases there is outright destruction of the woody vegetation. Yet the level of consumption is often at the lower limit of theoretical needs, leading in many places to a situation of acute scarcity for which the people try to compensate by making maximum use of agricultural residues. This is prejudicial for the soils, which are deprived of the input of organic matter.

In the mountainous zones, there is even greater destruction and degradation of the forests than in the plains and tablelands. This results in serious erosion problems, while in many places a situation of acute scarcity arises and forces consumption to fall below minimum needs; economies are therefore made in heating, resulting in an increase of mortality, particularly among the old and the children.

TABLE 25: SUPPLY OF WOODY MATERIAL FOR ENERGY IN 1980

Category of Country	Total Supplies (million m³)					Supply for rural inhabitant (m³/inhab./yr)
	Natural Forest		Plantations	Agricultural trees	Agricultural residues	Natural Forests	Plantations	Farm woodlots	Agricultural residues	Total
	apparent	accessible
1. Arid zones	1.2	0.1	0	0	0.1	0.01	0	0	0.01	0.02
2. Mountainous zones	4.2	3.4	0.6	1.4	1.4	0.12	0.02	0.05	0.05	0.24
3. Little-populated. dry zone	16	8	3.8	34.5	8.6	0.03	0.01	0.12	0.03	0.18
4. Heavily-populated humid zones	35	21	5.8	62	20	0.05	0.01	0.15	0.05	0.26
5. Moderately-populated forest zones	150	90	1.2	12	7.4	0.61	0.003	0.08	0.08	0.77
6. Heavily-populated forest zones	500	200	1.5	6.5	11.8	1.6	0.01	0.05	0.05	1.71
Sub-total (tropical countries)	706.4	322.5	8.7	116.4	49.3	-	'	-	-
7. Korea Rep.	9	7.2	20	1.8	2.6	0.35	0.90	0.08	0.12	1.45

TABLE 26; OVERALL FUELWOOD BALANCE 1980

Country	Level of needs m³/inhab./yr	Supplies m³/inhab./yr	Average Balance m³/inhab./yr
Category 1	0.3 - 0.5	0.02 - 0.03	- 0.38
Category 2	1.3 - 1.8	0.22 - 0.26	- 1.31
Category 3	0.2 - 0.7	0.16 - 0.20	- 0.27
Category 4	0.3 - 0.9	0.24 - 0.28	- 0.34
Category 5	0.5 - 0.9	0.75 - 0.80	+ 0.08
Category 6	0.9 - 1.3	1 - 5	+ 2
Korea Rep.	0.3 - 0.9	1	+ 0.4

(b) Urban areas in a deficit situation

The number of people affected is considerable, since the majority of the population (85 to 95 percent) of almost all towns with more than 100 000 inhabitants in the countries studied is involved: excluding Korea, 213 towns, with a total population of about 140 million.

These towns may be situated:

- either in rural zones which are themselves in a deficit situation as regards energy resources (111 towns, with about 94 million inhabitants);

- or in rural areas which now have a balance between energy supplies and needs but no great surplus (85 towns, with about 37 million inhabitants).

In urban zones the energy consumption per inhabitant varies considerably, according to social categories and the size of the town.

Taking only the poor, out of a total consumption of 4 to 6 GJ/person/year, wood accounts for 30 to 70 percent, or 0.5 m³/inhabitant/year. Towns situated in rural areas where there is a deficit are obviously in a situation of acute scarcity; towns situated in a rural area with a balance or a surplus of energy are better placed, but the cost of transporting the rural energy materials available (wood, plant residues) still leads to situations of acute scarcity for the poor social classes.

6.3 Prospects for the tear 2000

6.3.1 Growth in population and needs
6.3.2 Changes in wood energy resources

6.3.1 Growth in population and needs

It is estimated that in the year 2000¹ the population of all the zones studied will be 1.95 thousand million, which represents an increase of 755 million, or 65 percent, over 20 years. This increase will concern more particularly the rural areas. The population of the towns will rise from 160 million to 270 million, that of the rural areas from 1 036 million to 1 681 million, or an additional population of about 645 million, requiring an energy equivalent of about 500 million m³ of woody material per year.

¹ These estimates are based on the projections to 2000 made by FAO, except as regards India, for which the figures adopted are the official government figures, which assume that as a result of birth control successes, the population figure will be 130 million less than the FAO estimate.

An order of magnitude of the populations in the countries or zones of the six categories distinguished is given in Table 27.

TABLE 27: POPULATION FORECASTS FOR 2000

Category	Population (million)
	Rural	Urban	Total
1	15.8	1.3	17.1
2	45.8	3.6	49.4
3	471.1	71.9	543.0
4	662.2	136.8	799.0
5	238.5	25.0	263.5
6	218.3	8.2	226.5
Korea Rep.	29.3	23.2	52.5
Total	1 681	270	1 951

As regards the fuelwood needs of these populations, there are no reasons for thinking that any rapid and appreciable change will occur in the share of woody material in domestic energy supplies, except for that which may result from acute scarcity of one or other source. At most there may be a slight increase in the percentage of commercial energies, leading to a corresponding fall of about 5 percent in the requirements for traditional wood fuel.

6.3.2 Changes in wood energy resources

(a) Natural formations

The studies conducted by FAO in 1978 and 1980 showed that for all the countries covered by this study the total area of forests that will be destroyed between 1980 and 2000 will be about 56 million hectares. This destruction will not be equal for all countries and all zones, and it will not concern only areas producing fuelwood. In addition, a considerable area of land (some 18 million hectares) will be transformed into forest fallow potentially productive of fuelwood. The total decrease in the apparent annual supply of fuelwood, taking into account the yield capacity of the various types of forest vegetation, will be about 100 million m³ . What is even more serious is the overall loss of material that can be used as wood fuel, which will be about 12 thousand million m³ in 20 years. On average, therefore, each year 600 million m³ of wood will be burnt in clearing forest land for agricultural purposes, very little of which will be recuperated.

Table 28 shows, for the categories of country and zone considered, the total area of forest likely to be destroyed between 1980 and 2000, the amount of woody material thus destroyed and, on the basis of the areas still available in 2000, the resulting level of annual supplies.

TABLE 28: NATURAL FOREST FORMATIONS; FUELWOOD SUPPLIES IN 2000

Category	Area¹ 1980	Area cleared between 1980 and 2000 ¹	Woody material lost	Portion of this woody material utilizable as energy	Area in 2000 ¹	Supply in 2000
	(million ha)	(million ha)	(million m³)²	(million m³)	(million ha)	Total million m³/year	Partial m³/inhab year
1	0.7	0.2	10	8	0.5	0.1	0.01
2	2.8	1.2	180	150	1.6	2.1	0.05
3	13.3	0.6	90	70	12.7	5.2	0.01
4	14.2	2	800	640	12.2	19	0.03
5	35.0	16	8 000	6 400	19	75.7	0.35
6	162.7	12	6 000	4 800	150.7	300	1.4
TOTAL	228.7	32.0	15 170	12 068	196.7

¹ Not including shrub formations and fallow
² Including branches

(b) Plantations

By projecting to the year 2000 FAO estimates of the rate of plantation for the period 1980 - 85, and allowing for intensification of the programmes, it has been possible to estimate the areas that will be established by the year 2000 and the corresponding annual fuelwood supply.

TABLE 29: FUELWOOD SUPPLY FROM PLANTATIONS

Category	Total supply (million m³/year)	Supply/rural inhabitant m³/person/year
1	0	0
2	1.1	0.02
3	8.1	0.02
4	14	0.02
5	10	0.04
6	12	0.05
Korea Rep.	15	0.51

If these supplies are compared with those available in 1980, it will be seen that plantations will have made possible a substantial increase in the supply from this type of resources but despite a two-fold to five-fold increase, depending on the category, these supplies remain very low as compared with needs. Only Korea constitutes an example of the effectiveness of a plantation programme adapted to needs.

(c) Other wooded areas

It may be assumed that all the areas cleared for crop-growing will be managed in the same way as the present farm land, with village woodlots, hedges, orchards and isolated trees; but it must be remembered that most of these trees will not be mature by the year 2000 and their yield will therefore be very low.

The supply per inhabitant will therefore be significantly reduced, bearing in mind the growth in the rural population (62 percent in 20 years). It is therefore assumed that supplies per inhabitant will equal 70 percent of the 1980 figure.

(d) Woody agricultural and industrial residues

It may be estimated that these will increase in proportion to the growth in the population and will therefore provide the same amount per inhabitant per year similar to that estimated in 1980.

TABLE 30: ANNUAL PER CAPITA SUPPLY OF WOODY MATERIAL IN THE YEAR 2000

Category	Natural woody formations	Plantations	Farm woodlots	Woody agricultural residues	Total
1	0.01	0	0	0.01	0.02
2	0.05	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.12
3	0.01	0.02	0.08	0.05	0.16
4	0.03	0.02	0.11	0.05	0.21
5	0.32	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.46
6	1.40	0.05	0.03	0.05	1.53
Korea Rep.	0.20	0.51	0.15	0.10	0.96.

If these data are compared with those in Table 25 showing resources in 1980, the following changes will be noted:

- Category 1: Fall in supply resulting from degradation of the natural formations and growth of the population.

- Category 2: Drop of 50 percent in annual supply per inhabitant despite reforestation efforts that although considerable are insufficient to produce a substantial increase in supplies.

- Category 3 Drop of more than 20 percent in annual supply per inhabitant owing and 4; to the decrease in supplies from natural formations and despite a doubling in the supplies obtained from plantations.

- Category 5: Drop of 40 percent in annual supply per inhabitant because, although it has been assumed that 80 percent of the forest stands surviving will be accessible, the amount of deforestation carried out decreases supplies from forest stands by 50 percent.

- Category 6: The overall decrease in supplies is attributable to the decrease in supplies from the natural formations, but this situation applies in fact only to Thailand and north - eastern India, zones which contain a quarter of the rural population in this entire category. For the other countries supply per inhabitant varies little.

- Korea; Maintenance of level of supply per inhabitant, despite a big growth in population and a decrease in the supplies from natural formations, thanks to a remarkable plantation programme which contributes more than 50 percent to the total supply of woody material.

TABLE 31: BALANCE FORESEEABLE IN THE YEAR 2000

Country	Level of needs ¹ m³/inhab./yr	Supplies m³/inhab./yr	Average balance m³/inhab./yr
Category 1	0.3 to 0.5	0.01 to 0.02	- 0.4
Category 2	1.2 to 1.7	0.10 to 0.14	- 1.38
Category 3	0.2 to 0.7	0.14 to 0.18	- 0.3
Category 4	0.3 to 0.85	0.19 to 0.23	- 0.4
Category 5	0.5 to 0.85	0.45 to 0.50	- 0.2
Category 6	0.85 to 1.20	0.70 to 4	+ 1.3
Korea Rep.	0.25 to 0.80	0.96	+ 0.4

¹ Needs reduced by 5% as compared to 1980,

This balance makes it possible to establish the following:

Category 1: The situation of acute scarcity continues to grow worse owing to degradation of the vegetation, making it more and more difficult to obtain sufficient woody material.

Category 2, 3 and 4: The situation of considerable deficit grows constantly worse, despite the fact that it has been assumed that almost all the existing forest resources are utilized. In many overpopulated regions wood resources will become practically non-existent and the inhabitants of these zones will suffer from an acute scarcity of fuelwood. This applies to the whole of the Indian sub-continent (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal) and to the deltas and overpopulated islands of South - East Asia (lower Thailand, coastal plains and delta in Viet Nam, the islands of central Philippines, Java), where the woody resources will no longer be able to play more than a marginal role in supplying domestic and artisanal energy.

Category 5: These zones, which in 1980 were overall in a situation of balance between supplies and needs, will be in a deficit situation in 2000. People living near uncleared forest formations will be able to meet their energy requirements without difficulty, but the heavily-populated rural regions far from the forest borders will have to over-use all the woody resources present (farm woodlots, forest fallows, agricultural residues) in order to cover their needs, whence a constant degradation of the environment.

Category 6: Although the average supply decreases by practically a half, the zones as a whole remain in a satisfactory situation. It must be noted, however, that in two of these zones - north - eastern India (Bast Bengal) and northern and eastern Thailand - deficit situations will appear locally.

Korea Rep.: The positive balance is maintained, despite the growth in population, thanks to the output of the plantations established.

6.4 Typology of deficit situations and feasibility of forestry solutions

(1) Acute scarsity situations

These concern three groups of populations:

(i) Populations living in desert and sub-desert zones (Category 1), where 9.5 million rural people, mainly nomadic shepherds, inhabit an area of 88 million hectares. Their average needs are estimated at 0.4 m³/person/year and supplies at 0.025 m³/ person/year, or only 6 percent of needs. To cover these needs the people over-cut the vegetation and the situation grows ever worse. There is no large-scale forestry solution. All that could be done is to establish plantations around the watering points, with the threefold aim of providing the livestock with additional fodder, providing the people with some fuelwood, and stabilizing and protecting the environment; but this will be quite insufficient to resolve the problem throughout the area.

(ii) Population living in the Himalayan (Category 2), where 28.5 million people inhabiting the rural areas need considerable wood energy material because of the climatic conditions (1.3 to 1.8 m³/person/year). The theoretical supplies are 0.18 m³/person/year, or only 12 percent of needs. These needs, moreover, are in addition to the considerable requirements for other forest and fodder products also met by the same forest vegetation. The people are therefore forced to over-cut all the available woody resources, leading to ever more rapid degradation of soils and vegetation. This situation will inevitably worsen over the next 20 years. Forestry action is absolutely necessary to halt the process of soil degradation and erosion. It must be the constant concern of those responsible for agricultural development to see that trees are incorporated into the farming systems and that a certain forest cover is maintained. It must be admitted, however, that fuelwood plantations will never suffice to satisfy all domestic energy needs. Other actions are necessary.

(iii) The poor living in large towns. It is impossible to assess exactly how many people are concerned, but the number is certainly high - several thousand million. Even assuming that their needs are small, their inability to pay the price of the substitute commercial energies places them in a situation of acute energy scarcity which is often in addition to shortage of food. Here the problem is not of a forestry nature, but of a social and economic one.

(2) Deficit situations

These concern rural areas in which the supply compatible with sustained production is below needs, but where the populations generally manage to meet their needs by over-cutting the existing wood and plant resources.

One may distinguish:

(i) Populations living in rural areas with a climate not very favourable to forest vegetation, in the zones in Category 3. The 288 million people concerned lead a frugal existence with modest needs. Energy needs for woody and plant material are between 0.2 and 0.7 m³/person/year, in view of the large use made of animal dung, of which there is an abundant supply. The average supply of wood and plant fuel has been estimated at 0.18 m³/person/year, or 40 percent of average needs. The extreme situations are more serious. In certain places only 20 percent of needs are covered by the supply calculated. This therefore leads to over - use of the resources and to the degradation of soils and vegetation. The size of the populations concerned makes any forestry solution of limited effect. How could 75 million m³ of fuelwood per year (present size of overall deficit) possibly be produced from forestry plantations in a region where the climate is unfavourable and the best soils are intensively cultivated? As regards the natural vegetation, the governments concerned (Pakistan, India, Nepal) are doing everything possible to protect and manage it, but the natural conditions limit its yield capacity.

(ii) Populations living in rural areas with a climate generally favourable to forest vegetation (zones in Category 4). This concerns 412 million human beings whose way of life is fairly similar to that of the populations referred to above, but whose requirements for energy of wood and plant origin are slightly higher owing to the smaller amount of dung available and the more humid climate; 0.3 to 0.9 m³/person/year. The average supply calculated is 0.27 m³/person/year, or 30 to 90 percent of needs. Here too, therefore, there is inevitably over-use of the resources in order to cover needs. The favourable climate of these zones makes it possible to contemplate reducing part of the deficit by establishing forest plantations; but the lack of unutilized productive land in these overpopulated zones excludes the possibility of large-scale reforestation. Efforts should therefore be concentrated on integrating trees with agriculture and developing small family or community plantations. Assuming a yield of 12 m³/ha/year of fuelwood at the age of 6 years, 25 to 30 ha would be enough to provide a considerable part of the fuelwood needed by a group of 100 people. The forestry solution to the deficit of domestic energy ascertained should therefore be given first consideration. If it is to be successful, the rural populations will have to be made aware of its importance, educated, encouraged and trained. Trees must be introduced wherever they do not hinder agricultural development and productivity, to which they should, on the contrary, contribute.

(3) Potential deficit situation (evolving towards a deficit situation).

This concerns part of the rural populations living in zones largely occupied by closed forest but where deforestation to clear the land for crop-growing is increasing. These are the zones in Category 5. In 1980 147 million people were living in rural areas in these zones where the fuelwood supply per inhabitant usually exceeds requirements. Bat the growth in population and the decrease in forest resources mean that in many places there will be a deficit situation in 2000. To cope with this situation, the people will be led to over-use the resources available, resulting in progressive impoverishment of the accessible wooded zones and in particular of the forest fallows, which will therefore no longer be able to fulfil their function fully. Measures will have to be taken now to ensure that:

- the settlement of forest land by agricultural populations is effected in accordance with sound land-use planning which provides for conservation of the forest zones indispensable for furnishing fuelwood and the development of new agricultural techniques aimed simultaneously at increasing production, stabilizing agricultural land and conserving the trees;

- the maximum possible amount of woody products is recuperated in order to avoid the wastage that now occurs during clearing;

- plantations are established as the agricultural frontier advances, without making them so extensive as to be incompatible with their high unit cost. Priority should therefore be given to community and farm plantations and the use of agro-silvicultural techniques.

If all these measures are put into effect together, it should be possible to halt the present trend, and the populations concerned should be able to cover their domestic energy needs in 2000 without major difficulties