ADB - Status of forestry

United States and Canada
New Zealand, Chile and Australia
Russia: East Siberia and the Far East

A comprehensive review of the Asia Pacific Region was completed for the Asian Development Bank by Jaakko Poyry Consultants in November 1995. This review, "Status of Forestry and Forest Industries in Asia-Pacific Region" included a review of the forest resources of the region, including non-wood forest products, the forest industry and markets, investments for industrial development. The review also included a review of forest policies for the Asia Pacific region and strategies relative to the role of the Asian Development bank.

Based on the updated database developed in this project, the consultants prepared projections of demand for and supply of commodities and services within the region. The supply analysis was primarily based on the FAO Resources Assessment. Demand projections reflected growth rates for population and economic growth. Product supply projections were developed by the consultant.

This review highlights the critical role of fuelwood within the Asia Pacific region, where fuelwood as an end use accounted for 73.8 percent of wood consumption. Fuelwood consumption was projected to increase by 13.8 percent through 2005, reaching a level of 970 million cubic meters in comparison to 852.7 million cubic meters for 1993. Industrial wood consumption was projected to increase by 40 percent to the year 2005, reaching 333.4 million cubic meters for 2005, an increase from 238 million cubic meters in 1993. Total roundwood consumption would thus increase from 1.1 billion cubic meters in 1991 to over 1.3 billion cubic meters by 2005. Production increases for major product groups are summarized below:

	1993	2005
Industrial Wood (mill cum)	227 (1990)	333
Sawnwood (mill cum)	70	88
Wood based Panels (mill cum)	23	32
Paper and Paperboard (mill T)	44	70
Market Pulp (mill T)	5	6

The analysis examines prerequisite investments in forestry and forest processing to address the imbalances, and the role of forest policy within the region. Identification of policy failures, many outside the forestry sector itself, and the need for policy incentives are highlighted. These findings are then related to the policy framework for the ADB.

Details of the study forecasts for trends for the Asia Pacific Region are detailed in the report by sub-region and country and are reproduced here in Appendix 30. The overall projections for regional production to 2005 are as summarized above.¹⁵

¹⁵ Minor differences appear in the ADB main report and Annex VII. The detailed Annex tables are included here in Appendix 30.

The projections made in this analysis utilized per capital consumption rates for fuelwood (FAO) and UN medium population forecasts. Modifications based on supply constraints and potential strong substitution in energy use were included. Industrial forest products were modeled using population, GNP (converted to US$), and GDP per capita growth for demand estimation. Production by product, import and export estimates were used to determine apparent consumption. Available forest resources determine raw material consumption. International trade flows balance production and consumption.

Linkages to Extra-Regional Suppliers

As noted throughout this review, the Asia Pacific Region is actually a net importer of timber. It was reported that the Asia Pacific Region had a total roundwood deficit of 32.8 million cubic meters in 1994. This included an estimated deficit of about 17.5 million in conifer industrial roundwood, a surplus of 0.5 million cubic meters of non-conifer tropical industrial roundwood, and a deficit of 1.1 million of non-conifer other industrial roundwood. The apparent consumption of roundwood (fuelwood and industrial) was over 1,164.6 million cubic meters, thus indicating a overall deficit of approximately 2.8 percent by volume. While having a small (1.5 million cubic meter) surplus in non-conifer sawnwood trade, the deficit in conifer sawnwood was significantly larger at 9.7 million cubic meters. Consumption of sawnwood was estimated at 49.5 million for non-conifer and 59.2 million for conifer sawnwood Wood panel net trade was positive, at 712 thousand cubic meters, with apparent consumption at just under 50 million cubic meters (aphy and Supplemental Sources. Table 62).

Consumption in pulp and paper and paperboard was substantially less balanced, with growing deficits throughout recent years. Wood pulp consumption was 28.3 million metric tons, supported by net imports of over 8.1 million metric tons (28.6 percent). Paper and paperboard consumption was 81.6 million metric tons, with net imports of almost 7.1 million metric tons (8.6 percent).

The studies reviewed here, together with the large body of related reference sources for the Asia Pacific Region clearly indicate a growing dependency of the Region on forestry developments elsewhere globally, both in terms of supply but in the continuing role of markets for Asia Pacific producers.

Only a brief summary is possible of current developments in the countries and regions linked to the Asia Pacific Region. Extensive materials are reported in the literature cited in the Bibliography and Supplemental Sources.

Table 62. Asia Pacific Region - Summary of Apparent Net Consumption of Forest Products by Volume 1980,1985,1990-94

Asia Pacific Region - Summary: Production and Net Trade of Forest Products by Volume (1000 CUM)
FAOSTAT				1980	1985	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994
Total Roundwood (1000 CUM)
	Production			891,265	976,498	1,065,824	1,083,502	1,103,470	1,117,072	1,131,816
	Net Trade			-26,602	-30,596	-32,080	-34,139	-29,756	-33,444	-32,788
Apparent Consumption				917,867	1,007,094	1,097,904	1,117,641	1,133,226	1,150,516	1,164,604
Non-Conifer Roundwood (1000 CUM)
	Production			722,311	790,415	870,616	886,365	902,276	908,365	919,001
	Industrial Roundwood
		Production		157,475	161,406	175,882	178,176	180,547	172,920	169,823
		Net Trade
			Tropical				2,188	3,058	1,808	486
			Other				1,212	-965	-1,123	-1,083
	Apparent Consumption
	Industrial						174,776	178,454	172,235	170,420
	Other						706,189	721,729	735,445	749,176
	Total						882,965	900,163	907,680	919,596
Conifer Roundwood (1000 CUM)
	Production			168,955	186,085	195,210	197,138	201,195	208,708	212,816
	Industrial Roundwood
		Production		93,856	104,525	105,956	106,121	108,696	114,383	116,645
		Net Trade					-20,436	-17,733	-17,090	-17,480
		Apparent Consumption
			Industrial				126,557	126,429	131,473	134,125
			Other				91,017	92,499	94,325	96,171
			Total				217,574	218,926	225,798	230,296
Sawnwood - Non-Conifer (1000 CUM)
	Production			44,641	49,135	52,928	52,710	51,449	52,065	51,033
	Net Trade			3,813	3,133	1,121	949	1,382	354	1,535
	Apparent Consumption			40,828	46,002	51,807	51,761	50,067	51,711	49,496
Sawnwood - Conifer (1000 CUM)
	Production			50,527	50,787	51,854	47,242	46,161	49,925	49,537
	Net Trade			-4,681	-4,740	-7,894	-7,849	-8,218	-9,603	-9,663
	Apparent Consumption			56,208	55,527	59,748	55,379	54,379	59,528	59,200
Wood Panels (1000 CUM)
	Production			19,453	22,299	29,093	34,144	40,418	44,192	50,659
	Net Trade			2,926	4,484	2,942	2,641	2,497	1,621	712
	Apparent Consumption			16,527	17,815	26,151	31,503	37,921	42,571	49,947
Wood Pulp (1000 MT)
	Production			14,370	15,260	18,977	19,687	19,564	19,749	20,149
	Net Trade			-3,118	-3,926	-4,891	-5,627	-6,291	-6,830	-8,124
	Apparent Consumption			17,488	19,186	23,868	25,314	25,855	26,579	28,273
Paper & Paperboard (1,000 MT)
	Production			31,008	39,554	58,391	61,912	64,408	69,078	74,51
	Net Trade			-2,514	-3,317	-4,091	-3,981	-5,221	-5,796	-7,05
	Apparent Consumption			33,522	42,871	62,462	65,893	69,629	74,874	81,564

United States and Canada

It is well known that the Pacific Northwest region of the US is already into a significant transition involving the shift of large areas of forest into restricted management or non-timber management uses. These changes have been extensively reviewed in the context of global implications through the work of the Center for International Trade in Forest Products (CINTRAFOR) at the University of Washington, Seattle. A series of working papers based on the CINTRAFOR Global Trade Model (CGTM) report the findings and outlook for this region.¹⁶ A base case analysis of a reduction of some 33 million cubic meters harvest in the US Pacific Northwest and from forests in Western Canada in response to land re-allocation and conservation decisions, together with an increase of softwood plywood consumption of about one percent per year as substitution for declining tropical harvests in Malaysia, were reported in Working Paper 43 (Perez-Garcia, 1993).¹⁷ Other regions are projected to increase production in response to higher prices and greater demand. Based on timber availability and comparative costs, it was projected that only approximately 60 percent of the US and Canada decline could be made up by other suppliers including those in the US and Canada. Approximately 12.2 million cubic meters is provided by increased harvest in the US West from private forests and all forests in the US South and US North regions. This is about one third of the assumed timber reductions.

¹⁶ See the following CINTRAFOR Working Papers:

WP 33, "An Assessment of the Impacts of Recent Environmental and Trade Restrictions on Timber Harvest and Exports", John M. Perez-Garcia, 1991

WP 43, "Global Forestry Impacts of Reducing Softwood Supplies from North America", John M. Perez-Garcia, 1993

WP 47, "The Impact on Domestic and Global Markets of a Pacific Northwest Log Export Ban or Tax", John Perez-Garcia et al, 1994

WP 50, "An analysis of Proposed Domestic Climate Warming Mitigation Program Impacts on International Forest Products Markets", John Perez-Garcia, 1994

Additional analysis related to these issues has been undertaken by the USFS International Trade Research Program. See Flora, "Short-Run Trade Effects of Changes in US Public Harvests" (1994) and Flora & McGinnis, "Effects of New Export Rules, a Spotted Owl Plan, and Recession of Timber Prices and Shipments from the Douglas Fir Region", 1992.

¹⁷ A similar simulation was prepared in CINTRAFOR Working Paper 33 (1991). The detailed results of these two analyses are reported in Appendix 31.

European producers would also increase production, estimated at about 6.8 million cubic meters, equaling about 20 percent of estimated reductions. Some 1.2 million cubic meters are offset by higher production in Eastern Canada, and 0.7 million cubic meters in Japan. Overall, 38 percent of the assumed reduction is not compensated by offsetting increases elsewhere reflecting market effects. Under alternative assumptions where supply from East Russia is presumed to increase in response to US and Canadian shortages by 7.7 million cubic meters, the adjustments in the other US regions and ownership's are reduced, as is the adjustment for Japan and Europe. Overall, the US alternative producers would compensate by increased harvests of about 23 percent, with international producers compensating for an additional 50 percent of the reductions in the US Pacific Northwest and Western Canada. Siberia alone would offset about 25 percent of the reductions. These findings, together with similar simulations made in 1991 are included in Appendix 31.

Estimates of US production for 2010 for conifer and non-conifer species are summarized in Table 63 based on US Forest Service estimates as reported by ITTO (1995). Conifer supply in the Western US will decline significantly, with the major increase possible in the US South. Overall, the output is forecast to increase to 323 million cubic meters. Much of the increase however (14 million cubic meters) is for fuelwood for cogeneration of energy, leaving only 1 million cubic meters of the increase as industrial conifer harvest. Non-conifer supply is predicted to increase to 265 million cubic meters by 2010, up from 196 million cubic meters in 1900. Of the 69 million cubic meter increase predicted, some 43 million cubic meters would be fuelwood Canadian estimates for the US outlook are for considerably less conifer production, exclusive of fuelwood, with a 43 million cubic meter reduction foreseen in industrial harvest by 2010. Estimates for US non-conifers is also downward as seen by Canada, from 114 million cubic meters (net of fuelwood) to just 99 million cubic meters in 2010.

Canadian Roundwood production is shown in Figure 44 by log type. Total production in 1980 was about 158 million cubic meters, with 110 million cubic meters in 'logs and bolts', primarily saw and veneer log quality, and almost 35 million cubic meters of pulpwood. Major changes between 1980-1993 reflect general market economic conditions, with the majority of year to year variation reflected in industrial timber harvest. Total production reached a high of over 180 million cubic meters in 1987-1989 before declining, then recovering to about 175 million cubic meters by 1993. Roundwood production by province is shown in Figure 45, indicating the dominant role of western Canadian forests, primarily in British Columbia. Over the 1980-93 period, approximately half of Canadian production has originated in British Columbia. Production in the Atlantic Provinces, Quebec and Ontario have fluctuated between 60-80 million cubic meters, averaging about 70 million cubic meters annually. The Prairie Provinces, primarily Alberta, have seen production increase slightly from about 10 million to 15 million cubic meters in 1993.

Projections for future Canadian timber supply is shown in Table 64. Conifer production is shown as increasing moderately, to 93 million cubic meters in the West, in spite of predicted declines in British Columbia (down 10 million cubic meters). Eastern Canada is estimated to generate an output of some 77 million cubic meters or 20 million cubic meters above 1990 levels. Overall, Canadian conifer production is forecast at 170 million cubic meters with a significant shift from the west to the east. Hardwood production is much smaller in Canada, at only 19 million cubic meters in 1990, primarily in Eastern Canada. Production is forecast at 50 million cubic meters, with 30 million cubic meters in the East.

Table 63: Coniferous and Non-Coniferous Supply Outlook - United States: Forecasts for 2010

Coniferous Supply Outlook - United States (million m³)

Region	1990 Actual	Forecasts for 2010
		USFS (1)	COFI (2)
West	138	102	69
North	26	40	24
South	144	181	152
Total	308 (incl. 20 million fuelwood)	323 (incl. 34 million fuelwood)	245 (incl. 17 million fuelwood)

⁽¹⁾ USDA Forest Service RPA update 1994.
⁽²⁾ Council of Forest Industries of BC, World Timber Resources Outlook, December 1994.

Non-Coniferous Supply Outlook - United States (million m³)

Region	1990 Actual	Forecasts for 2010
		USFS (1)	COFI (2)
West	11	13	6
North	104	129	93
South	81	123	88
Total	196 (incl. 82 million fuelwood)	265 (incl. 125 million fuelwood)	187 (incl. 88 million fuelwood)

⁽¹⁾ USDA Forest Service RPA update 1994.
⁽²⁾ Council of Forest Industries of BC, World Timber Resources Outlook, December 1994.

ITTO, Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region, Phase II, 1995

Figure 44: Roundwood Production in Canada, 1980-1993

Sources: Statistics Canada, Cat. No. 25-201 and National Forestry Database.

Figure 45: Roundwood Production by Region, 1980-1993

Sources: Statistics Canada. Cat. No. 25-201 and National Forestry Database.

Table 64: Canada - Supply Outlook - Softwood and Hardwood - 2010 (million m³)

	Softwood Timber Supply		Hardwood Timber Supply
	1990	2010	1990	2010
West	87	93	3	20
East	57	77	16	30
Total	144	170	19	50

ITTO, Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region, Phase II, 1995

The present analyses of the US and Canadian situation indicate that there is little potential for substantial increases in conifer harvests or exports to the Asia Pacific Region in the face of declining supplies, Canadian restrictions on log exports, and growing pressures for export restrictions in the US Pacific Northwest. Declining volumes due to changing land use allocations and conservation constraints on public lands are unlikely to be offset either by other ownership's, either in the US and Canada or globally. Only if substantial response is forthcoming in Siberian Russia does the decline become offset by more than two-thirds.

United States two-way trade with the Asia Pacific Region is important to both trading partners. US exports to major Pacific Rim markets (including Australia) by volume and value are shown in Table 65. Detailed statistics on US trade with the Pacific Rim and Oceania by volume for the period 1984-1995 are included in Appendix 32.

US exports of conifer logs to the Asia Pacific region have dropped sharply, from a high of over 19 million cubic meters in 19989 to just under 9 million cubic meters in 1995. Exports of temperate hardwood logs has also declined, from a high of 572 thousand cubic meters in 1991 to just over 205 thousand cubic meters in 1995 after a low of 198.3 thousand cubic meters for 1994. Softwood lumber exports grew to a high of 4.1 million cubic meters in 1989, but have declines subsequently to 2.4 million cubic meters in 1995. The report of temperate hardwood lumber reached a high of 928 thousand cubic meters in 1988, then declined to below 500 thousand cubic meters for 1990-1994 before increasing to 606 thousand cubic meters for 1995. Softwood plywood exports to the Region were 28.7 thousand cubic meters in 1995, approximately the average since 1990. Exports of hardwood plywood have increased, from only 5.5 thousand cubic meters in 1989 to a high of 50.9 thousand cubic meters in 1992. Subsequent hardwood plywood exports have been smaller, reaching 30.9 thousand cubic meters for 1995. Other hardwood exports to the Asia Pacific Region include hardwood chips, doubling from 1.6 million metric tons in 1990 to 3.3 million metric tons in 1995. Hardwood flooring, and both conifer and hardwood molding exports have also increased since reporting for this items was initiated in 1990 (Appendix 32).

US imports from Asia Pacific by sub-region are summarized in Table 66 by value. Detailed import statistics by value are also included in Appendix 32 by sub-region and country. US imports increased from US$ 779.6 million in 1985 to almost US$ 1.3 billion in 1992 before declining in 1993-95, reaching US$ 1.1 billion for 1995. As shown in Table 66, these imports accounted for over 20.6 percent of US solid wood imports for 1990-91, but declined to a 12 percent share for 1995. The largest share of US imports from Asia Pacific originate in Insular SE Asia, predominantly Indonesia (US$ 439.3 million in 1995) followed by Malaysia (US$ 158.6 million, 1995). North Asia is the second leading sub-region source for US solid wood imports, led by China at 159.7 million in 1995. Continental SE Asia, led by Thailand, with US $ 107.3 million was the third leading source of US imports from the Asia Pacific Region in 1995.

Table 65: US Exports to Pacific Rim 1995

U.S. Export To:		VOLUME				VALUE-$000
		Dec.	% Change Month	YTD	% Change YTD	Dec.	% Change Month	YTD	% Change YTD
JAPAN	Softwood Logs - MBF	126,069	(4.8)	1,702,393	(5.3)	113,315	(8.0)	1,662,532	(3.3)
	Softwood Lumber- MBF	51,008	(15.4)	871,586	(9.1)	38,441	(13.5)	618,567	(1.1)
	Hardwood Logs - MBF	2,076	(17.8)	26,308	4.5	4,067	(11.3)	52,260	13.6
	Hardwood Lumber - MBF	7,237	1.4	106,636	8.6	11,069	9.6	151,170	12.4
	Hardwood Veneer (MSF 1/8)	4,786	17.6	119,537	(24.8)	674	0.1	12,940	(9.5)
	Particleboard (MSF 3/4)	330	91.5	4,767	(22.7)	83	56.6	1,702	(1.4)
	Other					78,253	8.0	753,096	30.4
	Subtotal					245,902	(3.7)	3,252,267	4.3
KOREA	Softwood Logs - MBF	19,692	17.1	225,432	14.2	12,339	6.5	139,801	12.3
	Softwood Lumber - MBF	1,895	38.0	17,482	(16.2)	2,655	45.8	19,646	0.7
	Hardwood Logs - MBF	1,187	*	9,861	13.0	1,219	81.9	13,121	6.6
	Hardwood Lumber - MBF	3,040	(8.6)	37,139	1.2	4,582	(2.2)	52,301	3.8
	Hardwood Veneer (MSF 1/8)	5,842	(40.3)	103,000	(40.5)	693	(41.1)	12,383	(39.6)
	Particleboard (MSF 3/4)	247	(98.2)	36,668	153.3	74	(97.3)	7,988	*
	Other					5,596	84.6	74,642	(1.7)
	Subtotal					27,158	5.8	319,882	4.3
CHINA	Softwood Logs - MBF	2,764	*	19,330	(73.9)	1,660	*	12,361	(77.5)
	Softwood Lumber - MBF	75	*	654	(28.5)	54	*	287	(32.0)
	Hardwood Logs - MBF	72	*	870	(12.4)	167	*	1,554	18.5
	Hardwood Lumber - MBF	808	39.9	6,216	*	787	51.1	5,851	*
	Hardwood Veneer (MSF 1/8)	4,061	*	13,517	33.6	567	*	1,891	61.6
	Particleboard (MSF 3/4)	267	*	1,047	46.0	62	34.8	351	*
	Other					195	(47.6)	5,447	45.6
	Subtotal					3,492	*	27,742	(56.3)
TAIWAN	Softwood Logs - MBF	3,939	(5.6)	31,175	40.8	2,643	(15.4)	23,535	60.8
	Softwood Lumber - MBF	832	92.8	9,702	(43.5)	511	44.4	7,306	(17.0)
	Hardwood Logs - MBF	492	(33.2)	7,434	(10.2)	945	(18.7)	12,582	(5.4)
	Hardwood Lumber - MBF	5,223	(5.6)	72,704	(9.2)	5,027	(4.2)	70,466	(6.5)
	Hardwood Veneer (MSF 1/8)	4,299	(28.5)	63,987	(21.7)	530	(30.4)	8,105	(16.3)
	Particleboard (MSF 3/4)	1,396	(23.9)	22,930	1.6	371	(15.1)	5,533	22.2
	Other					1,482	26.1	21,200	(33.7)
	Subtotal					11,509	(6.1)	148,727	(6.0)
AUSTRALIA	Softwood Logs - MBF	0	*	228	35.3	0	*	108	5.9
	Softwood Lumber - MBF	6,781	*	94,267	41.9	2,720	*	47,405	8.7
	Hardwood Logs - MBF	0	*	226	(7.2)	0	*	266	(11.6)
	Hardwood Lumber - MBF	162	(35.5)	3,406	30.3	300	(28.7)	5,677	35.0
	Hardwood Veneer (MSF 1/8)	221	(18.2)	17,249	60.1	25	(44.4)	2,321	48.2
	Particleboard (MSF 3/4)	0	*	71	(60.6)	0	*	46	(52.6)
	Other					1,053	89.7	10,154	1.9
	Subtotal					4,098	*	65,977	10.2

Japanese Market Data

Imports (Thousand Cubic Meters)	Nov.	Oct.	% Change Month	YTD	% Change YTD	U.S. Import Market Share YTD (%)
Softwood Logs	1,021	1,175	(13.1)	13.884	4.9	46.4
Softwood Lumber	755	784	(3.7)	9.271	11.5	18.1
Hardwood Logs	523	497	5.2	6.478	(11.5)	1.2
Hardwood Lumber	136	178	(23.9)	1,683	8.3	13.7
	Dec.	Nov.	% Change Month	YTD	% Change YTD	Wooden Structures YTD (%)
Housing Starts-000	135.7	137.2	(1.1)	1,470.3	(6.4)	49.1

Source: Japan Wood Products Information & Research Center

American Forest and Paper Association 1996

Table 66: US Import of Solid Wood Products from Asia Pacific Region by Value 1985, 1990-95

ASIA PACIFIC REGION/SUB-REGION

	1985	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995
TOTAL US Solid Wood Imports - ASIAN PACIFIC REGION
South Asia	5,481	6,120	6,675	7,443	7,298	7,648	9,866
Continental SE Asia	28,543	71,895	73,228	84,099	80,508	88,960	107,281
North Asia	437,868	463,319	494,057	547,695	405,109	260,229	255,457
Insular SE Asia	302,467	534,309	468,649	620,654	673,166	669,995	644,443
Oceania-S. Pacific	5,270	7,824	8,728	20,301	58,582	82,980	85,456
ASIA-PACIFIC TO	779,629	1,083,467	1,051,337	1,280,192	1,224,663	1,109,812	1,102,503
US TOTAL Imports	4,666,282	5,242,326	5,097,816	6,546,416	8,263,597	9,512,179	9,213,643
Asia-Pacific Share	16.7%	20.7%	20.6%	19.6%	14.8%	11.7%	12.0%

Source: US Dept. Agriculture, Foreign Agric. Service 1996

Canadian exports by province of origin for major forest products is shown in Figure 46. British Columbia accounts for the greatest share of exports for softwood lumber and wood pulp, with lesser shares of newsprint and other forest products. Canadian exports by value have increased significantly from about CAN$ 5 billion in 1975 to almost 32.4 billion for 1994. By volume, exports included 44.9 million cubic meters of softwood lumber, 10.5 million tons of pulp, and 9.4 million tons of newsprint as the major commodities. Summary statistics for Canadian exports by province of origin, destination market, and primary product is included in Appendix 33.

Total Canadian exports by major trading area and product are shown in Figure 47 for the period 1975-94 by value. Clearly the US is the major destination for the majority of all Canadian forest product exports, including over 72 percent of softwood lumber, 42 percent of wood pulp, and 75 percent of newsprint. Overall, the US accounted for CAN$ 22.6 billion of Canadian exports (69.8 percent). Japan was the second leading export market, accounting for CAN$ 3.9 billion in 1994, or 12.1 percent of exports by value. Almost 60 percent of Japan's imports from Canada by value was softwood lumber.

Canadian production from the province of British Columbia and the destination of the small volume of exports of logs are summarized in Table 67. Coastal BC production has remained at 25-26 million cubic meters over the 1990-95 period, reaching a high of almost 26 million cubic meters in 1995. Interior BC production was 53.1 million cubic meters in 1990 and reached a peak of 53.6 million cubic meters for 1993. Production was 50.5 million cubic meters in 1995. Total BC production reached a maximum of 79.2 million cubic meters in 1993, dropping back to 76.5 million cubic meters in 1995. British Columbia has strict restrictions on the export of unprocessed lots, hence total export volume has been small. Exports in 1995 were only 611.8 thousand cubic meters, or approximately 0.8 percent by volume. Over two-thirds of the log exports were to the US, with 133.6 thousand cubic meters going to Japan and 47.5 thousand cubic meters to South Korea. Over half of the exports (335.6 thousand cubic meters) were minor conifer species, almost entirely to the U.S.

Figure 46: Exports of Canadian Forest Products by Commodity Group and Region of Lading/Origin, 1975-1994

Exports by Region of Lading/Origin (Billions of dollars)

Softwood Lumber

Wood Pulp

Newsprint

Other Forest Products

Total Forest Products

Source: Statistics Canada, Cat. No. 65-202 and special compilation

Figure 47. Exports of Canadian Forest Products by Commodity Group and Principal Trade Area, 1975-1994

Exports by Trade Area (Billions of dollars)

Softwood Lumber

Wood Pulp

Newsprint

Other Forest Products

Total Forest Products

Source: Statistics Canada, Cat. No. 65-202 and special compilation

Table 67: British Columbia Log Production and Exports

Source: Council of Forest Industries, Ministry of Forestry, and Statistics Canada

BC LOG PRODUCTION 1990-1995 (thousand cubic meters)
	Coast region	Interior region	Total
1990	25,209	53,108	78,316
1991	24,760	48,916	73,676
1992	23,526	50,478	74,004
1993	25,684	53,555	79,239
1994	25,215	50,435	75,650
1995	25,959	50,512	76,471

PACIFIC RIM WOOD MARKET REPORT

BC LOG EXPORTS BY DESTINATION AND SPECIES, 1995 (thousand cubic meters)
Species	USA	Japan	S. Korea	Total
Cedar	5.1	2.4	10.8	18.4
D.Fir	0.1	0.7	-	1.5
Hemlock	70.7	111.5	35.1	217.3
Spruce	7.5	17.9	1.2	26.6
Other Softwood	334.5	1.1	-	335.6
Hardwood	11.7	-	0.4	12.4
Total	429.8	133.6	47.5	611.8

APRIL 1996

New Zealand, Chile and Australia

Considerable attention has focused on Australia, New Zealand and Chile where extensive plantations have been established, primarily of fast growing plantation radiata pine. These countries are seen as a significant emerging source of 'new' timber supply in the Asia Pacific Rim for the future, potentially shifting the nature and patterns of trade.

New Zealand

New Zealand had approximately 1.3 million ha. of exotic plantations as of 1991, consisting of 1.15 million ha. of radiata Pine (90 percent), 65.5 thousand ha. of Douglas-fir (5 percent) 41.6 thousand ha. of other conifers, and 25.6 thousand ha. of hardwoods. The distribution of plantations by age class and status of intensive management treatments are shown in Figure 48. It is clear that the majority of plantations are under 25 years of age, but with large areas maturing within the next decade.¹⁸ Approximately half of the plantations below rotation age have received either intensive management with production thinning or intensive management only. Much of the forest plantation has however minimum tending without thinning. Intensive silviculture, designed to promote faster growth and higher proportions of clearwood grades has received much attention over the past twenty or more years.

¹⁸ Data in Figure 16 is from 1991, hence age classes should be moved forward by five years to the present. Average rotations of 26-28 years for Radiata pine plantations would indicate that the age class shown at 21-25 years is now essentially mature and available for harvest.

New Zealand's harvest has increased sharply since 1989, with the largest share of growing production in the export log quality class. This trend is shown in Figure 49. Total harvest was about 9 million cubic meters annually from 1982 to 1988. About half of this volume was sawlog grade, with a high share of the rest being pulpwood. Export logs were less than 500 thousand cubic meters, and export chips quite small, although chip volume increased in 1986-87. With 1989, total harvest volume grew from over 10 million cubic meters to 15.4 million cubic meters for 1993. Elsewhere, production was reported at just under 16 million cubic meters for 1994 and almost 17 million cubic meters in 1995.

About 4.5 million cubic meters were export grade, accounting for a significant part of the total harvest increase to 1993. During this period, harvest from native indigenous forests declined, from 675 thousand cubic meters in 1985 to 194 thousand cubic meters in 1993, with the greatest share being sawlog grade. Export of logs was almost 4.3 million cubic meters in 1993, increasing to 5.3 million cubic meters in 1995. Exports in 1995 included 3.1 million cubic metes of logs to South Korea and 1.9 million cubic meters to Japan. Smaller volumes were exported to China, Taiwan and the Philippines within the Asia Pacific Region. Sawnwood exports increased from 0.9 million cubic meters in 1993 to just over 1 million cubic meters for 1995, with 304 thousand cubic meters destined for Japan and 371 thousand cubic meters to Australia.

Figure 48: New Zealand: Net Productive Plantation Forest Area(1991)

by age class and silvicultural regime, as at 1 April 1991

New Zealand Forestry Sector in 1993, NZ FRI Bull. 185

Figure 49: New Zealand Plantation Roundwood Removals by Log Type 1982-1993

New Zealand Forestry Sector in 1993, NZ FRI Bull. 185

The production of pulp logs and export chips have declined to where production was largely insignificant in 1993 (Table 68). Export of chips increased from 192 thousand (BDU) in 1993 to 303 BDU for 1995.

Projected yields from New Zealand's plantation forests are shown in Table 69 by grade class to 2020. Also shown in this table is the volume expected from clear felling and from thinning yields. Total expected volume (1986) is contrasted with earlier projections of total harvest which were made much earlier (1979).

Anticipate total plantation yield is shown as increasing from 10.4 million cubic meters in 1986-90 to about 24.8 million cubic metes for 2011-15. This contrasts with earlier forecasts of volume at nearly 36.5 million cubic meters by 2011-15. For the 1986 forecast, a total of 23.6 million cubic meters would be from clear fellings, while 1.2 million cubic meters would result from thinnings. Pruned logs with small end diameters of over 30 cm (P1/P2) are expected to increase rapidly after the 1995-2000 period, from 1.25 million cubic meters to over 3.88 million cubic meters. Unpruned logs (S1/S2 and L1/L2) would constitute over half of the harvest at the end of the forecast period.

Later projections of harvest from plantations is shown in Figure 50 The base case projection shows output at about 24 million cubic meters after the year 2000, in comparison with assumptions about various future rates of plantation establishment. Domestic use is also shown, remaining at about 8 million cubic meters up to about 2020. With an increase in planting of 50 thousand ha., yields would increase after the year 2000 reaching about 28 thousand cubic meters after 2010. With plantings of 100 thousand ha. future yields could potentially increase to as much as 60 million cubic meters after 2020.

Chile

Chile has also rapidly developed forest plantations which have a direct influence on timber markets in the Asia Pacific Region. Plantation forests are estimated at approximately 1.75 million ha. consisting primarily of Radiata pine (1.38 million ha.) and Eucalyptus (238 thousand ha.). Over 100 thousand ha. have been forested or reforested annually since 1991 with almost two-thirds planted in Radiata pine.

Projected output for Radiata pine for the future is estimated as growing from about 15.1 million cubic meters in 1990 to 22.2 million cubic meters for the year 2000 and increasing to 23.1 million cubic meters in 2010 and 36.9 million cubic meters for 2020. After 2000, pulpwood is estimated to remain at about 10 million cubic meters, with sawlog production increasing from 8.4 million cubic meters in 1990 to 14 million cubic meters by 2010. Longer term outlook for 2010 is for about 26 million cubic meters of sawlog output.

Table 68: Estimated Roundwood Removals from New Zealand Forests 1985-1993 (units: 000 cubic metres of roundwood)

Year Ended 31 March	Indigenous Removals									Exotic Removals					TOTAL ROUNDWOOD REMOVALS
	Saw Logs	Peeler Logs	Small Logs	Pulp Logs	Export Chips	Export Logs	Total Indig.	Saw Logs	Peeler Logs	Small Logs	Pulp Logs	Export Chips	Export Logs	Total Exotic
1985	282	8	1	63	321	-	675	4646	133	548	3201	69	354	8951	9626
1986	264	8	-	64	307	-	643	4981	146	532	3080	410	403	9552	10195
1987	224	6	-	48	285	-	563	4327	158	511	3161	509	384	9050	9613
1988	170	6	-	50	338	6	570	3819	164	500	3574	380	681	9118	9688
1989	150	4	-	47	176	-	377	3962	159	521	3878	352	1370	10,242	10,619
1990	174	4	-	50	132	-	360	4475	174	515	3906	494	1947	11,511	11,871
1991	166	4	-	42	156	-	368	4838	137	510	4152	425	3064	13,126	13,494
1992	126	3	-	5	74	-	208	4924	159	520	4224	803	3578	14,208	14,416
1993 (P)	116	6	-	-	72	-	194	5606	225	526	3943	526	4540	15366	15560

Source: Ministry of Forestry, Statistics

P= Provisional

World Bank, 1989c. Pacific Rim Region Forest Products Supply Prospects (Hunter) Forestry Technical Services Pty. Ltd.

Table 69: New Zealand Exotic Forest Yield Forecasts to 2020 (estimated average annual recoverable yield - '000 m³)

					C. Fell Thinning Total Volume
Lustrum	P1/P2	S1/S2	L1/L2	S3/L3	R	Yield	Yield	(1986)	(1979)
1986-90	444	3024	1260	1860	2229	8817	1556	10373	9400
1991-95	884	3158	1360	2451	1711	9564	1821	11385	12600
1995-00	1253	3855	1751	3412	2303	12754	1626	14200	17700
2001-05	2402	5466	3388	4586	3162	19004	1303	20307	24300
2006-10	3287	6300	4507	4887	3502	22483	1187	23670	33500
2011-15	3880	6470	5515	4420	3331	23616	1204	24820	36500

Source: Burrows, Levack, and Novis, 1986; Levack, 1979

N.B. Assumes no further afforestation

Log grades:

P1/P2: Pruned logs, minimum s.e.d. 30 cm.

S1/S2: Unpruned logs, minimum s.e.d. 30 cm., maximum largest single branch diameter of 6 cm.

L1/L2: Unpruned logs, as S1/S2, but max. branch diameter 14 cm.

S3/S3: Pruned or unpruned logs, min. s.e.d. 20 cm. and max s.e.d. 29.9 cm. Largest single branch not more than 14 cm. in diameter R: Pruned or unpruned logs with a minimum s.e.d. of 10 cm. with no branch size restrictions. Roughly approximates pulplogs, but includes S4 and L4.

Figure 50: New Zealand Plantation Forests: Actual and Projected Harvest including New Plantings

New Zealand, Min. of Forestry 1993, The Forestry Sector in New Zealand

Basic statistics for the Chile's forestry export sector is summarized in Table 70 for 1995 and early 1996. Exports of almost 1.6 million cubic meters of sawlogs were sent to South Korea. Japan was a small market for both sawlogs and pulpwood Green lumber exports to Japan was estimated at 99 thousand cubic meters, with surfaced dried lumber exports at 181.6 thousand cubic meters. Japan was also a major market for both softwood and hardwood chips.

Australia

Although large in area, Australia is not large in terms of forests. An estimated five percent, or about 43 million ha. are forested. Increasingly, however, Australia is adopting conifer plantations for future timber supply, often based on radiata pine, southern yellow pine, or eucalyptus. As of 1995, Australia's plantations were estimated at about one million ha. Approximately one-fourth of Australia's natural forest is in private ownership, assumed to be available for commercial use. An additional 7 million ha. of public forests are considered suitable and available for industrial timber production. Overall, approximately 19 million ha. currently support Australia's commercial forest base (ITTO, 1995). Tropical forest is estimated at 14 million ha., although almost all of this is removed from the commercial forest base for conservation and environmental purposes.

Under current conditions in New Zealand, Chile and Australia, the ITTO analysis (ITTO, 1995) estimated that combined output was approximately 56.1 million cubic meters, including 27.6 million cubic meters of sawlogs and veneer logs together with 28.5 million cubic meters of pulpwood. Sawlog and veneer log production was almost equal in these three countries, at just over 9 million cubic meters each.

Projected trends for the three countries is summarized in Table 71 and Figure 51 derived from the ITTO assessment. The three-country total production is estimated at 77.5 million cubic meters by 2010, or an increase of almost 21.5 million cubic meters (38 percent). Australia's output would grow to 30.7 million cubic meters with much of the gain in pulpwood. New Zealand's production is here projected to 23.7 million cubic meters, for an increase of over 8.8 million cubic meters (59 percent). Output for Chile is forecast at 23.1 million cubic meters for 2010, an increase of 5.9 million cubic meters. Much of the increase in New Zealand (5.4 million cubic meters) and Chile (4.7 million cubic meters) is in the sawlog and veneer log category. Together with Australia's forested increase in sawlogs and veneer logs (2.9 million cubic meters), total increase in this quality group would be 13 million cubic meters or 60 percent of the total projected increase.

With consideration of the likely domestic consumption of timber in New Zealand, Chile and Australia, ITTO also estimated the likely 'net increment' available for possible export trade with other countries. Table 72 provides a summary of these estimates. Australia is likely to remain a net importer (except for pulpwood), with new incremental supply originating in New Zealand and Chile. The available supply in 1995 was estimated at just over 20 million cubic meters. This is projected to grow to 34.8 million cubic meters by 2010, an increase of 14.7 million cubic meters. New Zealand would have an incremental supply (net of consumption) of 17.7 million cubic meters while Chile would produce a net increment of 17.1 million cubic meters.

Table 70: Chilean Radiata Pine Prices and Volumes A (FOB) 1995 and Jan-Feb 1996

	Market	February 1996 USD/m³ fob	January 1996 USD/m³ fob	1995 volume cubic meters
Sawlogs	Korea	70,00	68.04	1,582,135
	Japan	n/e	66.62	7,963
	Turkey	n/e	n/e	71,157
Pulpwood	Japan	n/e	43.96	85,048
	France	Information not available	n/e	69,213
	Sweden	Information not available	n/e	72,585
Green Lumber Dried Lumber	Japan (rough)	Information not available	139.35	99,349
	Japan (surfaced)	Information not available	200.63	411,107
	USA (surfaced)	299,56	317.76	181,573
Wood Chips-(Softwoods) USD/GTM	USA (Pine)	n/e	47.13	377,151
	Japan (Pine)	53,03	59.22	261,642
Wood Chips-(Hardwoods) per ton/US$	Taiwan	Information not available	n/e	126,504
	Japan	62,92	69.46	3,273,072
	Korea	Information not available	n/e	38,127

Pacific Rim Wood Market Report, April 1996

Table 71: Status Quo Wood Supply Scenario: Australia, New Zealand and Chile (million m³)

	1995	2000	2005	2010
Australia: sawlog & veneer logs	9.21	10.33	11.23	12.12
Australia: pulp logs	14.82	17.34	17.96	18.58
Australia: Total	24.03	27.67	29.19	30.70
New Zealand: sawlog & veneer logs	9.06	10.82	14.07	14.46
New Zealand: pulp logs	5.80	6.92	8.99	9.24
New Zealand: Total	14.86	17.74	23.06	23.70
Chile: sawlog & veneer logs	9.30	12.90	13.30	14.00
Chile: pulp logs	7.90	9.30	9.60	9.10
Chile: Total	17.20	22.20	22.90	23.10
Total All Countries	56.09	67.61	75.15	77.50

Figure 51: Supply Forecast: Chile, New Zealand and Australia 1992-2010 (million m³)

ITTO, Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region, Phase II, 1995

Table 72: Future Incremental Supply in Roundwood Equivalents: New Zealand and Chile: 1995-2010 (million m³)

	1995	2000	2005	2010
New Zealand	8.86	11.74	17.06	17.70
Chile	11.20	16.20	16.90	17.10
TOTAL	20.06	27.94	33.96	34.80

ITTO, Analysis of Macroeconomic Trends in the Supply and Demand of Sustainably Produced Tropical Timber from the Asia Pacific Region, Phase II, 1995

Russia: East Siberia and the Far East

The forest sector of Russia, particularly East Siberia and the Far East regions, is also of potential significance to forestry outlook in the Asia Pacific Region. Since 1989, the area of the former Soviet Union has undergone significant political and economic change. The forests of the Soviet Union were primarily included in the territory of the Russian Republic. The outlook for this sector has been the focus of much extensive review and analysis by Backman and Waggener with respect to potential development and trade with the Asia Pacific countries.¹⁹ The Russian forest has experienced considerable stress since the introduction of massive economic restructuring in 1991. As with the rest of the Russian economy, harvest output and forest products production have declined significantly. The Russian forests, particularly in East Siberia and the Far East regions, is relatively undeveloped, thus capturing interests in terms of future potential. However, the distinction between physical and economic potential is large. This distinction is made all the more important by the ongoing period of transition from planned to market economic structures and the yet undetermined role that prices and markets will play in guiding policies and production in the future.

¹⁹ Backman and Waggener have completed a series of three Working Papers through the research program of CINTRAFOR dealing with the status and outlook of the Russian forestry sector. These include:

WP 28, "Soviet Forests at the crossroads: Emerging Trends at a Time of Economic and Political Reform", 1990

WP 35, "Soviet Timber Resources and Utilization: An Interpretation of the 1988 National Inventory", 1991

WP 46, "The Russian Forestry Sector Outlook and Export Potential for Unprocessed Logs and Primary Forest Products through 2000", 1994

Two additional analyses are presently in final preparation for publication:

Backman & Waggener, "The Forestry Sector in Transition: Russia and the Far East in the 1990's and Outlook for Production and Trade through 2000" Chapter Manuscript, Monterey Institute of International Studies (1996)

Waggener and Backman, "Outlook for Russia Trade with the People's Republic of China", Joint Working Paper, CINTRAFOR and IIASA (1996)

See also: Waggener, "Russia as a Supplier of fiber to Asia Pacific Region - Economic and Trade Implications", AIC conference on Asia Pacific Pulp and Paper, 1996

The declines in the forest sector of Russia saw the production of roundwood decline to 238 million cubic meters in 1992, almost 30 percent below 1989 output. Output dropped further in 1993, by an additional 18 percent. Lumber production declined by 26 percent in 1993, while plywood production declined by 16 percent and particleboard by 17 percent (Backman & Waggener 1996). Harvest was reported at 174 million cubic meters in 1993 and was expected to decline by as much as one-third in 1994. The Russian Far East produced approximately 8 percent of timber industry output prior to the introduction of economic and political reforms Roundwood harvest of 42 million cubic meters was estimated for the RFE in 1989, declining to 30 million cubic meters for 1992 and 24 million cubic meters for 1993.

Commercial roundwood supply declined from 25.8 million cubic meters in 1989 to 16 million cubic meters in 1992, and to 11.7 million cubic meters in 1993. Accuracy in data reporting has declined, but is was estimated by Backman that 1992 output was approximately 15 percent higher, while unreported harvest in the RFE for 1993 could potentially be as high as 25 percent. Lumber and plywood production declined to approximately 1.2 million cubic meters in 1993, other wood-based panels declined to 0.7 million cubic meters, and pulp production fell to 240 thousand metric tons. Paper and Paperboard production declined to about 300 thousand metric tons by 1993.

Timber harvest in East Siberia in 1989 was an estimated 93 million cubic meters, subsequently declining to 69 million cubic meters in 1992. Commercial wood supply in 1989 was reported at 63.8 million cubic meters, declining to 42.1 million cubic meters in 1992 and 29.1 million cubic meters in 1993. Again, Backman estimated that these reported totals could understate actual harvests, by about 15 percent in 1992 and 1993. Lumber production in East Siberia declined from 19 million cubic meters in 1989 to only 8 million cubic meters for 1993. Wood based panels declined to 550 thousand cubic meters from over 1.1 million cubic meters in 1989. Pulp production declined to about 1.2 million metric tons from 2 million metric tons in 1989.

Russia's exports for 1993-94 are summarized in Table 73 for 1993-94 while Far East exports are shown in Table 74 for 1992. By 1994, moderate stability had returned to the Russian forest sector, although internal domestic markets and consumption continued to experience disruptions and economic uncertainty. As a consequence, the export market was seen as the most promising opportunity for the sector, giving rise to modest increases in both volume and value of wood based exports. As shown in Table 73, all categories experienced gains in 1994, ranging from 6 percent for wood pulp to fifty percent for plywood (by volume) over 1993.

Table 73: RUSSIA EXPORTS 1993-94 BY VOLUME AND VALUE

EXPORT VALUE ($US Million)		1994	1993	RATIO 1994:1993
	Round Timber	686	662	104
	Sawtimber (Lumber)	586	515	114
	Plywood	138	106	130
	Cellulose (Pulp)	309	213	145
	Newsprint	166	125	133
EXPORT VOLUME		1994	1993	RATIO 1994:1993
	Round Timber (1000 CM)	12,798	11,539	111
	Sawtimber (Lumber) 1000 CM	5,360	4,638	116
	Plywood (1000 CM)	568	379	150
	Cellulose (Pulp) 1000 MT	911	858	106
	Newsprint (1000 MT)	597	482	124

Backman and Waggener, 1994, The Russian Forestry Sector Outlook

Table 74: RUSSIA FAR EAST EXPORTS FOREST PRODUCTS 1992

COMMODITY	VOLUME	SHARE
LOGS (Mill CM)	7.0	77%
LUMBER (Mill CM)	1.0	13%
PULP (Mill MT)	0.1	3%
CHIPS (Mill MT)	0.3	4%
PLYWOOD (Mill CM)	-	-
OTHER*	-	1%
CARDBOARD & PAPER (Mill MT)	0.3	2%

* Other includes fiberboard, paper, plywood, furniture, etc.

Source: Agland Investment Services, Inc/Ward International (1993)

Backman and Waggener, 1994, The Russian Forestry Sector Outlook

Trade from the Russian Far East has been primarily in unprocessed logs in contrast to European Russia trade. Industrial sawlog trade historically has been concentrated on conifer logs exported to Japan and China. Although trade in sawnwood is substantially smaller, Japan is also the major destination of exports from the Far East. The trend in exports to Japan has been downward, with the decided impact of the 1991-93 reform period evident as is shown in Figure 52. Japan has also been the dominant market for pulp logs and wood chips exported from the Far East region, as shown in Table 75.

Projections for Russian production and trade were formulated for 1990 as a base period with alternative outlook for 1990-95 (Period 1) and 1995-2000 (Period 2). For period two, alternative 'pessimistic', 'middle' and 'optimistic' conditions were assumed, based on the level of stability and economic development, trade relationships, and levels of investment in forest management and industrial restructuring (Backman and Waggener, 1994). A summary of the production estimates is provided in Table 76, with export projections shown in Table 77. The projections are also illustrated in Figure 53.

Lumber production is projected to remain depressed though 2000, reaching an estimated 54 million cubic meters under mid-level conditions. Production in the Pacific Asian region of Russia would recover to about 16 million cubic meters. Panel production would recover to 5.8 million cubic meters, well below 1989 levels, with only 1.0 million cubic meters produced in the Pacific Asian Russia region. Pulp and Paper production also is expected to remain well below pre-reform levels, totaling 5.8 million metric tons by 2000, with Pacific Asian production at about 1.8 million metric tons. Exports of lumber and panels will also remain below pre-reform levels, particularly for exports from eastern Russia. Pacific Asian exports of lumber are projected at 3.3 million cubic meters under baseline (middle) conditions, including 3.0 million cubic meters from European Russia and only 0.2 million cubic meters from Pacific-Asian Russia. Panel exports would be only 0.3 million cubic meters, essentially from European Russia.

As shown in Figure 53, projected exports under the existing forest resources conditions and the expected political and economic situation during the period 1990-95 (Period 1) were estimated as exports of about 12 million cubic meters. About 7 million cubic meters would be exports from the European region of Russia, consisting of less than 2 million cubic meters of high quality (industrial sawlog grade) with almost 5 million cubic meters of low grade timber (primarily pulpwood). Exports from the eastern Russia regions (primarily the Far East) were estimated at about 3.5 million cubic meters of sawlog quality timber and 1.5 million cubic meters of low grade (pulpwood) materials.

Under the baseline scenario, exports for 1996-2000 were predicted to increase slightly to almost 13.5 million cubic meters, with about 6 million cubic meters exported from the European region - slightly less than in period one due to improving domestic markets and economic conditions. Exports from eastern Russia would, however, increase slightly, to about 7.5 million cubic meters, including 4.5 million cubic meters of sawlog grade materials and 3 million cubic meters of lower grade (pulpwood) timber. Only under unrealistic ('optimistic') conditions would exports rise to almost 30 million cubic meters before the year 2000. The largest impact would be the export of lower grade materials from the European region. Exports from eastern Russia to the Pacific Rim would also rise, to almost 13 million cubic meters, including 7.5 million cubic meters of higher grade sawlog materials and 5.5 million cubic meters of lower grade pulpwood.

Figure 52: Japan Import of USSR/Russian Softwood Logs and Lumber 1983-94

CINTRAFOR/JWPIRC/trw

Table 75: Japan Import of Pulp and Paper Materials from Russia

YEAR	PULP LOGS (1000 CUM)	CHIP (Conifer) (1000 CUM)	CHIP (Non-Conifer) (1000 CUM)	PULP (Tons)
1983	636.5	335.0	50.3	-
1984	755.6	336.9	52.1	-
1985	528.9	335.7	40.7	-
1986	470.2	430.2	79.8	-
1987	465.2	480.4	100.2	-
1988	394.3	415.8	107.5	-
1989	515.6	533.8	105.7	-
1990	516.5	522.4	77.5	-
1991	449.4	352.8	105.5	1,473
1992	321.2	257.8	70.1	1,285

Source: Dr. Hiroake Kakizawa, Dept. Forest Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo

Waggener 1996, Russia as a Supplier of Fiber to Asia Pacific Region

Table 76: Russia and Regions: Actual Production and Projected Production of Primary Forest Products

		1989	PERIOD 1	Pessimistic	Middle	Optimistic
LUMBER (million)
	Total (cubic meters)	83	56	54	54	68
	Euro-Siberian	58	42	36	38	47
	Pacific Asian	25	14	18	16	21
PANEL PRODUCTS (million)
	Total (cubic meters)	11.7	5.9	5.8	5.8	7.7
	Euro-Siberian	10.2	4.5	4.8	4.8	6.7
	Pacific Asian	1.5	1.4	1.0	1.0	1.0
PULP/PAPER (million)
	Total (metric tons)	11.4	5.9	3.8	5.8	7.8
	Euro-Siberian	8.6	3.5	2.1	4.1	5.9
	Pacific Asian of which from:	2.8	2.4	1.8	1.8	1.8
VIRGIN FIBER
	Total	10.2	5.1	3	5	6.8
	Euro-Siberian	7.5	2.7	1.3	3.3	5.1
	Pacific Asian	2.7	2.4	1.7	1.7	1.7
RECYCLED FIBER
	Total	1.2	0.8	0.8	0.8	1.1
	Euro-Siberian	1.1	0.8	0.8	0.8	1.0
	Pacific Asian	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2

Backman and Waggener, 1994, The Russian Forestry Sector Outlook

Table 77: Russian Estimated Exports of Sawnwood and Panels by Market

				Period 1			Period 2
				European HC Markets	Pacific Rim Markets	Total HC Exports	Pessimistic			Baseline			Optimistic
							Europ HC	Pac Rim	Total HC	Europe HC	Pac Rim	Total HC	Europe HC	Pac Rim	Total HC
LUMBER (Mill CM)
	RUSSIA			4.1	0.4	4.5	4.6	0.2	4.8	3.1	0.2	3.3	5.6	0.2	5.8
		Conifer		4.1	0.3	4.4	4.9	0.2	5.1	3.1	0.2	3.3	5.5	0.2	5.7
			Larch	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1
			Other	4.1	0.3	4.4	4.9	0.2	5.1	3.0	0.2	3.2	5.4	0.2	5.6
		Deciduous		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
	EUROPEAN Region			4.1	0.0	4.1	4.9	0.0	4.9	3.0	0.0	3.0	5.5	0.0	5.5
	PACIFIC ASIAN			0.0	0.4	0.4	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.2
PANELS
	RUSSIA			0.4	0.0	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
	EUROPEAN REGION			0.4	0.0	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.3
	PACIFIC ASIAN			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Backman and Waggener, 1994, The Russian Forestry Sector Outlook

Figure 53: Russia and Regions: Projected Export of Wood Fiber to European and Pacific Rim Markets

Backman and Waggener, 1994, The Russian Forestry Sector Outlook