The underlying assumption of this chapter is that the Borana system is now changing rapidly as a result of internal and external forces. Increased pressure on resources has created problems but new windows of opportunity for development are also opening that did not exist 10 years ago. In this scenario former intervention approaches can now shift from extensive and top-down to more intensive and bottom-up ones, augmented with thoughtful policies. This is true, however, only for production processes that are not too risky. Intensification here mostly implies more efficient management of existing resources. Pastoralists should not be held to intensification standards applicable to smallholders in higher potential systems because rangeland environments are inherently more variable. Hard-won production improvements could easily be lost as a result of environmental perturbation. Importantly, it is accepted that the Boran are not becoming more interested in land management, for example, because they desire to intensify and "develop" their economy. Rather, they are being forced to consider intensification so as to promote their survival. This perspective agrees with the theory of rural change advocated by Boserup (1965).
Table 7.16 summarises windows of development opportunity that are postulated to be either gradually closing or opening in the Borana system over the long term Those that are closing are based on increasing access to ecological resources or technical interventions targeted towards traditional production surpluses that are now in inevitable decline. Far more windows may be opening than closing, however. Opportunities to intensify cultivation on appropriate sites, improve access to markets and enhance management of calves, other herd assets and human emigration are all widening. This is because there will be more demand for these technologies, services and policies in the future compared to the recent past.
Table 7.16. Summary of development windows of opportunity that are gradually closing or opening in the Borana system as a result of a long-term trend of declining numbers of cattle per person.1
|
Development windows | |
|
Closing |
Opening |
|
Extensive water development |
Management of agropastoralism |
|
Dairy technology |
Management of human emigration |
|
|
Livestock and dairy marketing |
|
|
Banking livestock capital |
|
|
Demand for participatory development |
|
|
More intensive range management |
1 Windows which are dosing are based on extensification of the system or interventions that deal with traditional production surpluses. Those which are opening involve opportunities for intensification and risk management. See text for assumptions and qualifications for anticipated trends. see also Chapter 8: Synthesis and conclusions.Source: Coppock et al (1990).
Table 7.17 summarises windows of development opportunity that are postulated to open or close in the context of the interdrought cycle of the cattle population over the short term. Interventions which have greater chance of succeeding under low stocking rates should be implemented in the drought-recovery phase. Those which rely on increased resource pressure and producer risks to promote adoption should be implemented in the high-density phase. All this implies that these interventions could be adopted, dropped and readopted in a cyclic fashion. Thus, the fact that a particular innovation may be discontinued after a few years does not mean that it would not be readopted. This poses a major difficulty to developers or scientists who observe this system for only one or two years because the problems one observes may be largely dependent on whether the person was present during the drought-recovery phase or the high-density phase of the cattle population.
For short-term management of the interdrought cycle, this analysis implies that agencies which promote innovations in a pastoral setting must be very opportunistic and flexible in programme delivery. This agrees with Westoby et al (1989) who noted that bureaucratic constraints often preclude more effective and opportunistic implementation of management and research programmes in variable environments. Administrative and project-planning procedures too often commit organizations to programmes that suddenly become obsolete.
