The pastoral population on the central Borana Plateau may be growing at a rate of 2.5% per year, consistent with estimates for semi-settled pastoralists elsewhere (see Section 2.4.3: Human population growth). Human population growth has been postulated as a major source of system instability in terms of declining per capita supply of resources (Section 7.2: Anticipated long-term trends). Because there are relatively few opportunities for expansion of grazing area, development of sustainable agropastoralism and because markets are commonly unreliable, increased grain dependence aggravated by a growing population increases the risk of famine.
For 1989 it was estimated for the study area that 75000 people were dependent on some 314000 cattle for an overall ratio of cattle to people of 4.2:1. This means an annual energy deficit of 46% (Table G1, Annex G). If it is assumed that 300000 cattle represents a reasonable compromise between short-term human welfare and reducing risk of negative density-dependent interactions (Section 7.3.3.6: Cattle marketing), halving the annual energy deficit to 23% would require a reduction in the human population of 39000 to yield a cattle to human ratio of 8.4:1. Towns and villages in or near the rangelands are characterised by high unemployment rates, even among urban dwellers, so prospects for increasing employment opportunities for pastoralists over the short term are nil (Girma Bisrat, PADEP Coordinator, personal communication). Even if it were only desired to stabilise the population in the study area at current levels, this would require creating around 2000 jobs per year to offset the intrinsic rate of increase.
Table 7.17. Summary of development windows of opportunity which are postulated to open or close based on the interdrought cycle of cattle population dynamics in the Borana system.1
|
Open development windows | |
|
Drought-recovery phase |
High-density phase |
|
Site reclamation |
Livestock assets for water development |
|
Improved calf management |
Livestock assets for grain storage |
|
Livestock supplementation |
Improved calf management |
|
Sustainable cultivation |
Banking livestock capital |
|
Milk marketing |
Grazing management |
|
Small ruminant marketing |
Cattle marketing |
|
Greater impact of health interventions on |
Small ruminant marketing |
|
cow milk production |
Milk and butter marketing |
1
Windows open in the drought-recovery phase depend on lower stocking rates of came for effective implementation. Windows open in the high density phase depend on higher stocking rates of came for effective implementation. See text for assumptions and qualifications for anticipated patterns See also Chapter 8: Synthesis and conclusions.
Source: Coppock et al (1990).
Boran leaders express concern that despite population growth, they expect that indispensable younger males will be leaving the system and that this will create labour shortages for well-watering and herding cattle (Coppock, 1992b). This suggests that young males view their chance of a good life and gaining wealth in the traditional sector as slim. This outflow of males may bode unfavourably for women and children who will have to assume duties of these males in addition to their owen traditional roles (Coppock, 1992a). Attempting to ameliorate future labour constraints with more births could be adopted as a strategy by the herd owners thus spurring population growth further (D. L. Coppock, ILCA, personal observation). Where the emigrating males go, how many there are and what they do where they go remain unclear. It is speculated that some reside in agropastoral communities near the rangelands and others are supposed to work in the livestock black market with Kenya or other contraband trade (D. L. Coppock, ILCA, personal observation; P. Webb, IFPRI, personal communication). Emigration rates among the Boran have been assumed to be low (AGROTEC/CRG/SEDES/Associates, 1974e; 1974f) but more research is needed on this.
Despite the fact that human population density is the acute cause of increasing poverty and higher risks of famine, the main opportunities to manage population growth are medium to long-term in nature. The only short-term option is birth control but it is felt that this would be exceedingly difficult to implement. The Boran may have traditional forms of birth control, still the fundamental social value for women remains having many children (M. Bassi, Institute of Ethiopian Studies, personal communication). In any event this is a priority topic for future research.
The Boran can emigrate only if given some education or training and a job opportunity. It is unclear how many pastoral children attend elementary schools in the southern rangelands but it is believed to be very low. It is also assumed that boys rather than girls tend to receive educational opportunities (D. L. Coppock, ILCA, personal observation). Boran leaders say that they increasingly understand the value of education for their youth, but have been fearful of sending their children to school because it deprives them of their current and future labour pool. They realise that educated youths will probably leave (D. L. Coppock, ILCA, unpublished data).
A cadre of educated Boran could greatly facilitate some aspects of community development, especially diversification of assets (Section 7.3.3.6: Cattle marketing) while banking livestock capital could also provide funds for the development of towns if promoted in the context of a larger development strategy. The future of the Boran is thus highly dependent on the future growth and development of towns such as Yabelo, Mega, Negele and Moyale (Chapter 8: Synthesis and conclusions). Even if thousands more Boran children started school today, the effect on Boran society of emigration as a result would not be felt for at least 5 to 10 years.
