8.1 Introduction
8.2 Development implications
8.3 Research implications
Summary
The objectives of this chapter are to: (1) offer justification for continued investments in rangeland development in Ethiopia; (2) forward an integrated goal for developing the Borana pastoral system; (3) outline tactics for a best-bet development strategy to meet this goal; (4) note major constraints for implementing these tactics; and (5) summarise major research implications of this systems study.
The current development picture in the southern rangelands is bleak. As a result of the 1990-91 drought, around 50% of the regional cattle herd perished and roughly 200000 pastoralists are receiving food relief. What used to be referred to as a model of sustainable pastoralism in Africa is now suffering problems regarded as endemic to pastoral Africa in general. The fundamental cause is multifaceted. Human population growth appears rapid, but it is not appreciably different from that of similar systems. The lack of a means to release human population pressure is hypothesised as the root cause of the problem, and this has been exacerbated by the cultural isolation of the Boran from the rest of Ethiopia and limited economic opportunities outside the pastoral sector. The cattle population is increasingly limited by land availability and the ratio of milk cows to people is probably in a precipitous decline. This has led to economic adjustments which include peri-urban dairy marketing and emergent agropastoralism. Negative effects are magnified as the finite resource base is becoming smaller. Population growth, both for the Boran and neighbouring ethnic groups, is now harming their production systems because people are reportedly residing in, or otherwise using, internal and external grazing reserves, which used to be held as buffers to protect cattle herds against drought to an increasing degree. Mix these problems with a dry-year probability of 0.2, and the recipe is disaster.
This negative trend has occurred despite large investments during the 1970s and 1980s. Although it is fortunate that roads and markets are now in place to accomodate future changes in the system, there are several reasons why development planners and expert consultants failed to envision the current situation. First, it was wrongly assumed that the Boran had Western values and were eager to raise cattle for cash; second, there was a poor understanding of how population pressure drives social and economic change. Earlier interventions mostly occurred when it was not necessary for the
Boran to change their traditional lifestyle. Now, because of a high population density, they have to change in order to better feed themselves, but the problem today resembles more crisis management rather than development. Some of today's crises could have been averted if the same attention had been given to education and development of human potential as was given to stimulateing cattle production and offtake. Planners will be pleased to know that the Boran would market a higher percentage of cattle in the future and, on average, these will be younger animals. This is not, however, due to a revolution in commercial attitudes but rather to the Boran being forced to sell more animals to buy grain. One consequence of this is that as the Boran are now vulnerable to unstable markets, cattle inventories could be depleted to an extent that endangers asset accumulation and drought recovery, and hence aggravate poverty.
The goals of rural development should include: (1) agricultural growth in the form of livestock production; (2) poverty alleviation; and (3) increased ecological sustainability. If no measures are taken to promote economic development of the Borana system, the chance for agricultural growth will decline, poverty will increase, and ecological sustainability will be compromised by increased cereal cultivation on fragile upland soils to mitigate famine risk and from additional bush encroachment and soil erosion induced by cattle grazing.
Because of their large areal and high population density, the highlands should receive priority for agricultural development in Ethiopia. The rangelands cannot be ignored in the national interest, however, because they will increasingly serve as the extensive breeding grounds for animals used in the highlands and for diversification of exports. It is speculated that the highlands of the future will become crowded to the extent that smallholders will be less able to control the entire process of producing large stock from birth to finishing and will demand a greater supply of cattle for finishing or draft that have been bred elsewhere. Preconditions may now exist, in both the highlands and lowlands, to achieve the goal of national agricultural integration envisioned in the early 1970s if policies and provision of technology and inputs are adequate. The highlands and lowlands offer complementary production advantages which can be exploited. Benefits of national integration now occur in two directions; besides smallholders benefitting from an enhanced supply of range-bred stock, populations like the Boran are in dire need for highland grain at reasonable terms of trade to offset chronic risk of famine.
The broad view is that interventions in the southern rangelands need to promote sustainability of the traditional social order as well as ecological sustainability of livestock production. Both are interrelated. Famine risk, poverty and the undermining of cultural values threaten the social order. Increased competition and density-dependent patterns of livestock production will be gradually forced more households out of the traditional sector during droughts, the population of pert-urban poor would increase and this could become a negative factor in the social welfare of small towns. The failure to deal with these problems could cause the system to collapse possibly as a result of increased regional insecurity and enhanced difficulties in maintaining operation of the deep wells without coordinated human inputs. Without the deep wells in full operation, the livestock production system could be markedly less efficient and unsustainable. The technology for raising well water under low-input conditions is deemed inappropriate at this time. Enhancing prospects for ecological sustainability is a longer-term issue that requires a hierarchical, step-wise approach to rural development. If the production system is not stabilised in response to drought, there are negative implications for the Boran in terms of loss of animals that could otherwise be marketed and growing commercial offtake for the nation.
Although the challenge is daunting, the fundamental premise of this chapter is that the entire Borana system can be managed to increase agricultural growth, alleviate poverty and reduce risks to the environment using several key interventions in tandem. These measures should also help stabilise the system in response to drought. This has positive implications for reducing the outward flow of destitute people over the short term and reducing loss of milk cows. Reducing milk cow losses deminishes the need for unsustainable cereal cultivation during drought recovery. It also could assist efforts to preserve the Boran cattle breed, because the need for the Boran to trade for inferior highland cows during drought recovery would be lessened.
The time when one development agency or a few technologies could have a significant impact on the Borana system is now over. Managing the system for widespread impact today requires a greater focus on policy and coordinated action among several development agencies and government ministries. The strategy advocated here is also not unduly expensive to implement.
The theory of local system dynamics forwarded in the previous chapter, implies that development action must deal with two phenomena: (1) the long-term trend of a decline in the ratio of cattle to people; and (2) the inter-drought cycle consisting of drought-recovery and high-density phases. Development action must also deal with problems in order of their immediate importance to Borana society: (1) improve food security; (2) reduce risks of animal production and asset accumulation; (3) enhance livestock production and herd turnover and (4) deal with ecological sustainability and poverty over the longer term through population management. Assuming that the first goal can be achieved, attainment of the second goal is the key to everything else. Some interventions can address both the long-term trend and interdrought cycle simultaneously.
Using the framework above, means to deal with the long-term trend can be started now, but the effects will not be felt for a few years. In contrast, the interdrought cycle can be dealt now and produce results more rapidly. An example is described in which the drought-recovery occurs from 1992 to 1996 and the high-density phase occurs after 1997. In general terms, the drought-recovery phase is reached when cattle stocking rates are <20 head/km2 and the high-density phase when stocking rates are >20 head/km2. This schema is overly simplistic because variability in rainfall or incidence of epidemic disease could disrupt herd growth patterns. The interdrought cycle may be quite predictable, however, considering rainfall. For example, there is a 0.75 chance that the years 1992-96 will have one dry year or less and will thus support rapid herd growth. There is a 0.25 chance that lack of rainfall would slow herd growth. Once the high-density phase occurs, there is a 0.5 chance of low rainfall in at least one of the first three years and thus a high probability of a drought-induced population crash. This underscores the impression that drought impact is as much influenced by cattle population as by rainfall and leads to the speculation that a major crash could now occur once every 5 to 10 years unless action is taken to stabilise the system.
Measures to deal with the long-term trend are needed to maintain favourable terms of trade of livestock for grain, stabilise the cattle population in response to drought and stimulate Borana migration. Ultimately, the future of the Boran will be greatly influenced by the growth of small towns in the rangelands, both as market outlets and sources of employment. The step-wise approach is to (1) improve food security through local cereal production as a temporary measure and by opening regional marketing channels and (2) to increase the ratio of cattle to people by incrementally increasing livestock-carrying capacity and stimulating human emigration. Major activities include national, regional and local policy initiatives to: (1) stimulate maize production to promote surpluses in the southern highlands, encourage interregional commerce and de-regulate producer prices for livestock and grain; (2) encourage local maintenance and development of infrastructure and transport networks in the southern rangelands to improve market access and promote growth of towns like Yabelo, Moyale, Mega and Negele; (3) support development agencies in the southern rangelands and encourage their interaction with the Boran on the basis of participatory development that focuses on felt needs of the community; (4) devise a land-use policy in recognition of the need for the Boran to cultivate only on ecologically sustainable sites and maintain viable grazing areas within madda, which will provide a framework for reclaiming drought reserves from human encroachment; (5) increase Boran access to elementary education; and (6) initiate plans to increase access of the Boran to the commercial banking sector and consider strategies to use banked livestock capital to stimulate economic growth in the small towns.
Strategies developed to deal with the drought-recovery phase during 1992-96 should complement those employed by the Boran and should include: (1) growing maize; (2) selling milk and small ruminants to town dwellers; and (3) attempting to build-up cattle herds. Policy measures should aim at (1) improving food relief activities; (2) promoting favourable terms of trade of livestock and milk for grain by improving market channels (above); (3) taking advantage of opportunities to export sheep from the southern rangelands; and (4) allowing cereal cultivation in ecologically sustainable sites. Technical interventions should be focused in peri-urban locations for both pastoralists and farmers; this acknowledges logistical constraints for extension and that good ideas will be disseminated to outlying areas by Boran who visit market centres. Technical perspectives should give priority to (1) crop management to improve sustainable yields on appropriate sites, enhance crop diversity to reduce risks and promote crop-livestock interactions; (2) extending household-level grain storing, concepts to improve seasonal terms of trade; (3) enhancing cow milk production through extension of acaricides; other health measures and improved calf management using grass hay and native legumes to reduce risk of calf mortality and thus lengthen the duration of lactations; (4) improving veterinary service for small ruminants; and (5) developing options and incentives for the Boran to bank livestock capital. For outlying communities, the drought-recovery phase is also the time to: (1) promote site-restoration activities, including burning and regulated charcoal production for bush control; and (2) give encampments easier access by camels thereby enhancing their ability to transport grain from market. All supplies and services should be paid for by the Boran as this will encourage to test their priorities. As the Boran will be unwilling to sell cattle at this time, small ruminants may have to be sold to generate funds.
Tactics to deal with the high-density phase could start around 1997 and these should also complement those employed by the Boran. Some such as growing maize and selling dairy products are similar to those in the drought-recovery phase but others include: (1) accomodating increased cattle grazing; and (2) reducing the risks incurred by holding more cattle under more precarious environmental circumstances. Additional policies or procedures should ensure that agencies are prepared to: (1) cope with distributing food relief; (2) encourage projects that develop or maintain water points or build grain stores funded by cattle sales; (3) encourage the banking of livestock capital; (4) ensure that drought reserves are capable of handling an adequate number of cattle during a dry year and (5) market cattle to the highlands or for export. For activities 3 and 4 traders should coordinate their efforts to remove marketed cattle from the system. Technical perspectives should give priority to (1) adapting grazing management plans tailored for a particular madda under resource stress; (2) improving drought reserves including distribution of water and grazing; and (3) improving calf-feeding management by using hay and native legumes. Assuming that many strategies will be implemented, the next interdrought cycle after 1997 should be less catastrophic than that from 1992 to 1997.
In summary, interventions can be grouped according to objective: (1) food security is dealt with by encouraging maize production on suitable sites, opening regional markets, de-regulating producer prices and extending health services to livestock; (2) risk mitigation is achieved in part by improving food security, but also by banking livestock capital, reclaiming drought reserves and stimulating offtake to fund community projects; (3) livestock production and herd turnover should be enhanced by factors listed in item 2, because increased offtake during the high-density phase should reduce the density-dependent effects on cow milk production and animal mortality; (4) poverty is alleviated over the short term by banking livestock capital and increasing livestock production and herd turnover; and (5) risks of ecological unsustainability should be reduced by banking livestock capital, reclaiming drought reserves, using restoration methods and grazing management to increase grazing resources available to select madda, and by improving food security which would lessen the need for cultivation. The effects of increased human migration would not be felt for a number of years, but would include improved food security, risk mitigation and poverty alleviation.
One intervention, the "keystone" intervention, exceeds all others by having positive impact on food security, risk mitigation, livestock production and poverty alleviation; this is banking livestock capital. The constraints for implementing this intervention include: (1) potential distrust by the Boran of banking; (2) barriers that exclude illiterate people from using the banking system; (3) lack of bank branches in the area; and (4) factors such as inflation which are subject to national currency management. Even under conditions of moderate inflation, banking livestock capital could be an effective means to ensure asset accumulation that is less dependent on ecological system dynamics.
Although the other interventions in combination could have significant impact, they are more difficult to implement compared to banking livestock capital. Constraints include: (1) limited manpower and funds for extension and land-use monitoring; (2) inadequate access to sufficient foreign exchange to procure veterinary supplies, spare parts and other necessities (this is despite the fact that range livestock are intended to be a major generator of foreign exchange); (3) difficulties in development agencies and government coordinating their efforts to affect policy changes and work together to solve important problems; and (4) difficulties of the national economy in producing and distributing consumer goods. Projects perceived as important to the Boran can be paid for in local currency from livestock sales, and this is not viewed as a major obstacle. The irony is that lack of substantial development impact is not due to a lack of technology or inappropriate resistance on the part of the pastoralists.
Efficient implementation of the development programme referred to above requires that some routine information be collected concerning cattle herd dynamics, land use, range trend and felt needs of the community on an annual basis. This information could be quantitative or qualitative in nature, and could also be used to validate and/or improve upon ideas proposed in the theory of local system dynamics. Interpretation of range trend data, in particular, may be complicated by the cyclic pattern of cattle herd dynamics. Herbaceous cover dynamics may appear cyclic rather than linear and trends may be difficult to discern. Similarly, bush establishment may appear as an episodic phenomenon during the high-density phase of the cattle population.
Future research priorities should largely involve sociology and economics. These could include study of: (1) banking livestock capital to recommend asset management strategies for pastoral households and the role banked funds could play in urban development; (2) human population growth and the fate of Borana emigrants; (3) the degree to which the traditional social order can cope with stress and eventual loss of labourers; and (4) implications of system change for vulnerable groups such as women and children. Adaptive research could be directed towards problems involving sustainable cereal cultivation. The need for traditional livestock research is relatively minor.
Finally, implications of research findings for 28 major themes are highlighted. These include equilibrial system features, effects of the Boran on the environment, system sustainability, biodiversity, conservation of indigenous livestock breeds, gender issues, livestock production, pastoral production efficiency, upstream versus downstream research, production interventions versus those which mitigate risks, evolution of dairy marketing and agropastoralism, collaboration between research and development agents, and the value of systems science for research, development thinking and education.
