8.2.1 Future role of the lowlands in the national economy
8.2.2 Have past pastoral development projects succeeded in the southern rangelands?
8.2.3 A development strategy for the southern rangelands
Because highland systems in Ethiopia comprise nearly 40% of the land area, over 85% of the human population, over 70% of the livestock and nearly all of the cereal production of the nation, it is clearly appropriate that the highlands should receive priority attention for agricultural development compared to the rangelands. It is argued, however, that the rangelands cannot be ignored in a national strategy emphasising the highlands because the rangelands will remain as the critical breeding grounds for livestock used domestically and for export. It is contended that a sustainable increase in the supply of livestock from the rangelands can be promoted by very cost-effective policies and procedures that are in line with national priorities.
Livestock development in the highlands today may be largely defined as promotion of more efficient crop-livestock interactions to enhance the important economic roles that livestock play for smallholders (McIntire and Gryseels, 1987). Research about the evolution of agricultural systems, however, suggests that production priorities and constraints will continue to change in the highlands as a result of population pressure and competition for resources (Boserup, 1965; Jahnke, 1982). Such continual change is assured by the fact that rates of net population growth in many highland systems exceed 3.5% per year, with a doubling time of 20 years (EMA, 1988). If urban absorption of rural people remains low, highland systems will become more crowded and cereal cultivation will take up an even higher percentage of grazing land, making it increasingly difficult for highlanders to raise large number of livestock, particularly under extensive conditions. One result of this may be, for example, that rather than raise cattle from calves, highlanders may be forced to trade more for feeder cattle for short-term finishing on crop residues and procure mature or near-mature oxen for draft. In effect, demand for linkages, as described in Section 1.4.5.6: Smallholder fattening programme, should intensify. In addition to domestic demand, demand for livestock for export may also increase. Ethiopia has a dire need for hard currency to help rebuild the national economy. Live sheep and cattle will remain as key options for strengthening and diversifying exports (FLDP, nd).
The source of animals to meet increasing demand will be the rangelands. One irony is that while insufficient rainfall is often viewed as the primary constraint for livestock production in rangeland systems, it is variable rainfall which will preserve the rangelands as the centre for extensive livestock production by excluding most other agricultural activities. The potential for the rangelands to supply the rest of the nation with animals remains largely unexploited. If the Borana situation can be considered as representative of Ethiopian pastoral situations in general, the demographic, economic and social pre-conditions are now in place to accelerate rates of animal offtake given adequate market access and reasonable prices.
The Boran have an acute and increasing need for highland grain. Without this grain at favourable terms of trade, risk of famine is now high. A national strategy should recognise comparative advantages for commodity production in different agroecological zones and exploit this through policies and procedures which: (1) encourage increased cereal production in the highlands to promote surpluses for export to the rangelands (especially maize); (2) promote settlement of regional political disputes which threaten security and commerce; (3) improve infrastructure and transport capability; (4) deregulate prices; and (5) diversify trade and promote competition among traders. Such scenario of interzonal integration was envisioned for Ethiopia at least by the early 1970s and was the justification for the SLDP and TLDP. Despite past frustrations, recent efforts to liberalise interregional trade, together with increased population pressures that will continue to force both farmers and pastoralists to become more market oriented, may now help speed the attainment of national agricultural integration.
In terms of promoting the flow of livestock from the lowlands, Ethiopia has a large stake in the ecological sustainability of rangeland ecosystems and in maintaining a viable population of pastoral producers. Policies and interventions in the rangelands should promote: (1) poverty alleviation to improve human welfare and enhance rural security; and (2) long-term ecological sustainability for livestock production. Means to implement these interrelated objectives are discussed in Section 8.2.3.2: Overview of strategy.
As reviewed in Chapter 7, the perceived outcome of development activities in the southern rangelands since the 1960s includes: (1) creation of a larger, and potentially less stable, regional cattle herd that periodically degrades the environment; and (2) the rise of a human population that is increasingly dependent on famine relief and rehabilitation. There has been no documented increase in cattle offtake or a widespread and sustained improvement in human welfare as a result of veterinary campaigns or the development of ponds, roads or markets. Any increased production accruing from interventions has probably been absorbed to a large extent by a growing subsistent population rather than marketed. Livestock commercialisation has probably also been hindered by interregional trade barriers, poor transport capability and low domestic prices that encourage rather than discourage international black-market activity. These are common pastoral development problems also experienced elsewhere in Africa.
It is nevertheless concluded that, while past impact of infrastructural improvements appears minimal, it is now fortunate that roads and markets are in place. They will become the lifeline for a society increasingly dependent on nonpastoral resources as a result of rapid population growth. Impact of development intervention is thus a function of timing in relation to population pressure. The Boran are not becoming more commerce-oriented because they want to, but because they have to. This picture fits general conceptual models of agrarian change (Boserup, 1965;1980).
Expectations for rapid pastoral development in the 1970s and 1980s were unrealistic, and in part this was due to faulty assumptions in the project planning stage. That pastoralists desire to increase cattle sales to make money is an example of cultural bias of the West. The Boran clearly have their own traditional social and economic value for cattle, and have traditionally had a low demand for money. Their tendency has always been to try to accumulate cattle and avoid sales as much as possible (Coppock, 1992b). It is the increased need for human food that propels livestock commercialisation and diversification today, not a new rationale among the Boran to raise incomes and acquire material possessions. Development planners thus failed to appreciate a cultural rationale for animal production that differed from their own.
Another example deals with the desire of planners to see more marketed offtake of immature cattle to benefit fattening schemes of smallholders in the highlands, also consistent with a Western ideal (von Kaufmann, 1976). This perspective fails to take into account that sales of immatures are contrary to the traditional rationale of herd accumulation through trade. Matures are traditionally prioritised by pastoralists for sale because production costs are negligible and gross income is higher, allowing purchase of needed commodities with left-over funds to buy replacement calves. This simple strategy allows for both the purchase of commodities plus herd growth of households.
Availability of immatures for sale will increase in the Borana system, thus satisfing the vision of planners. This trend will not come, however, because the Boran desire to develop cattle production in the Western fashion, but rather because the increasing need to sell animals to purchase grain will gradually deplete older classes of animals traditionally preferred for sale. More immatures for sale thus indicate an increasing level of poverty in Borana society, a decline in herd assets per capita and lower capability for animal replacement. Like the postulated increase in cattle offtake in general, the increase in sales of immatures will please development planners, but it is happening as a result of the economic destruction of traditional Borana society. While a shift to livestock commercialisation is necessary because of a rising population, this involves painful social costs.
Another Western development bias involves the apparent lack of appreciation that some planners and researchers have for extensive interventions in the promotion of increased animal production and human welfare. The perceived lack of appropriate production technology for rangeland systems means that range science has been relegated to an inferior status within agricultural research. Extensive interventions are those which tend to increase animal numbers rather than productivity per head. An increase in animal numbers can actually be more valuable to households than increased production per head because this can lead to more marketing and production options and can better mitigate risks. Increasing numbers is also less dependent on labour inputs and less risk.
The Boran have noted the many positive effects of veterinary campaigns, roads, ponds and markets on their lives; these benefits have been commonly reported in terms of increased animal numbers. Aside from using interviews, the effects of development projects on their lives besides increasing their herd, are difficult to monitor or measure. Still, extensive interventions implemented in the southern rangelands since the 1960s have probably played a valuable role in delaying the onset of widespread poverty in Borana society. Opportunities to extensify further are now limited, however, which opens windows of opportunity for improvement of some aspects of resource management and animal production that were not considered a decade ago. This again is so largely because the people have no other choice.
Finally, another major strategy that underpinned livestock development activities in the southern rangelands was to obtain animals for export to generate foreign exchange. The essence of the overall strategy was thus extractive in terms of demands for the highlands and for export; and the focus was on more animal production and stimulating offtake Although Borana leaders participated in some aspects of infrastructure planning in the 1970s and 1980s (Menwyelet Atsedu, Colorado State University, personal communication), only recently has the primary project emphasis shifted to participatory development involving the Borana people as a whole (see Section 1.4.3: The SERP and the Pilot Project). Even if TLDP management had desired to broaden their mandate to include more participatory development in earlier activities, they would have been constrained by fund allocation restrictions. Project management usually has had to obtain permission from donors outside Ethiopia before even minor modifications in project delivery could be considered (Menwyelet Atsedu, Colorado State University, personal communication).
The emphasis on extracting animals from the system has probably had both positive and negative attributes. It is positive in that it has resulted in development of local infrastructure. The region could have easily been ignored otherwise. The negative side is that initiatives to improve the lives of producers did not receive the same kind of attention as stimulating livestock production from the beginning. It is unfortunate that resources were not directed towards human development through education, vocational training or other participatory development back in the 1960s or 1970s. The greatest challenge today in the southern rangelands is dealing with human overpopulation. It has been estimated, just for the study area, that dramatic improvements in food security would only result from reducing the human population by 50% (i.e. by 39000) and by providing employment for a net increase of 2000 people each year. With no education or training possibilities combined with lack of employment opportunities a potentially explosive situation is created. The extreme cultural and political isolation of pastoralists in Ethiopia has erected barriers against their emigration into urban areas; and this has contributed greatly to their precarious circumstances today. This problem would have obviously been easier to address 20 years ago than today when it has become a case of crisis management.
In sum, past livestock development in the southern rangelands is a disappointment in some respects, but it has not completely failed. There have been some notable achievements. The improved infrastructure, in particular, is becoming tremendously important and will contribute to saving and improving the lives of pastoralists. Expectations of development activites were inappropriate in many respects, and development and system change take a long time. Importantly, pastoral development did not perform poorly because of a lack of technology, but rather because Western-trained planners and expert consultants had a faulty understanding of the social, cultural and demographic features of Borana society. The task is for national personnel and expert consultants to become more familiar with the dynamics of pastoral systems. This will enable the design of more appropriate development strategies.
As will be seen below, Borana society is in acute crisis today. This is largely due to human population growth, compounded by few emigration outlets, both for the Boran and their neighbouring ethnic groups. This has led to dangerous densities of population in an inherently risky environment; population growth has begun to swallow up traditional grazing reserves and related resources which used to promote stability under drought perturbation. Importantly, the crisis does not mean that traditional pastoralism has failed or is unsuitable for the rangelands. In another sense, the crisis can be interpreted to show that pastoralism has been too successful for its own good, in terms of promoting a growing population of producers. Most of the constraints for ameliorating the crisis are found outside, not inside, the pastoral sector.
8.2.3.1 What if nothing is done?
8.2.3.2 Overview of strategy
8.2.3.3 Interventions to lessen negative effects of the long-term trend
8.2.3.4 Impact in the interdrought cycle
8.2.3.5 Intervention impact in the interdrought cycle
The current situation in the southern rangelands is disastrous (Bocresion, 1992; C. Fütterknecht, CARE-Ethiopia, personal communication). Roughly 200000 beneficiaries in the region are now receiving food relief, and around 50% of the cattle population was lost as a result of the 1990-91 drought. Some "good news", however, is that different ethnic groups are seeking ways to improve their situation by reaching agreements aimed at promoting improved regional security (Bocresion, 1992).
The scenario of worsening poverty and instability in Borana supports the view that African pastoral systems are in jeopardy and must receive priority attention for urgent relief and rehabilitation rather than the "luxury" of well-planned efforts to promote economic development (Jahnke, 1982). It will be argued, however, that there are some aspects of economic change which could swiftly mitigate the current crisis. Jahnke's (1982) perspective may thus be too simplistic. Again, this dire situation of the Boran appears to be relatively recent (see Section 6.4.5: Equilibrial versus nonequilibrial population dynamics). This undermines the long-held view that the Borana system is an exemplary model of sustainable range animal production in Africa (Alberro, 1986; Pratt, 1987a).
Whether at national, regional or local scales of resolution, rural development can be thought of as an attempt progress towards three desired outcomes of: (1) agricultural growth; (2) poverty alleviation; and (3) increased ecological sustainability of agricultural enterprises (Vosti et al, 1991). If we were to ignore the situation in Borana by not facilitating interregional market linkages, avoiding opportunities for participatory development and not attempting to implement viable technical and policy interventions, long-term population trends should result in the Boran living in an increasingly precarious condition. Using a conceptual model of Vosti et al (1991) as a reference framework, patterns should consist of: (1) declining livestock production and asset accumulation per capita (i.e. a drop in agricultural growth); (2) increasing poverty; and (3) increased scope for environmental degradation. Food relief will no longer be an occasional measure; it will always be needed. An increasing number of Boran will attempt to leave the system, but without facilitation this flow is expected to be minor. Young men, in particular, will seek opportunities to participate in black-market trade, try marginal farming in areas adjacent to the rangelands and the few with some education may hope to become shop keepers in local towns. Others may essentially live off the streets of small towns. Women probably will have fewer options. Details for the main trends are as follows:
1) Declining cattle production and asset accumulation per capita occurs because the cattle population is limited by the available land yet the human population continues to grow. See Section 7.2: A theory of local system dynamics. If agricultural growth is defined as a per capita sum of annual production of crops and livestock in energy terms, and averaged over five consecutive years to see trends, the trend may be for agricultural growth to initially increase as cultivation expands. Once the most viable cropping areas have been cultivated and the human population continues to surge, the forecast is that agricultural growth will decline. If land is permanently degraded by either upland cultivation or bush encroachment (see below), its carrying capacity for cattle may be compromised and agricultural growth would decline more quickly.2) Increased poverty results from high human population growth on a finite resource base. Because per capita cattle holdings will decline, a growing percentage of households will dip below an animal-asset threshold that makes them vulnerable to dropping out of the system in the event of drought or animal disease epidemics. In the case of drought, the severity of its impact will be greater because of the loss of internal and external grazing reserves. Fewer households will be able to return to the system because the competition for cattle and other resources will be intensified. The most visible result of this trend will be an increased peri-urban population pockets of the poor. They will depend on daily sales of things like milk, eggs, firewood and charcoal for their survival. Producers who remain in the system will, on average, have a smaller cattle holding consisting of younger cattle with a higher percentage of females; more small ruminants may be held as a diversification strategy (Coppock, 1992b).
3) Cultivation would spread because of a chronic threat of famine. Cultivation could be increasingly difficult to control and its practice on upland soils is expected to be the major source of rangeland degradation in the future. Cultivation on lowland soils will be far more sustainable, but will compete with other strategic uses of valley bottoms. The future of traditional leadership structures will have a large bearing on resource regulation, whether it is the spread of cultivation or charcoal-making. The future of the Gada and related social structures is not clear. If the male youths do not embrace traditional leadership duties, the prospect is that traditional knowledge and enforcement of resource use regulations could wane (see Section 2.4.2.2: Some cultural and organisational features).
Granted that all this paints a dismal portrait of the future of the Boran, what are the consequences of these trends for local urban centres and the nation at large? In other words, does it make any difference outside the traditional system how bad the situation becomes for the Boran? For local urban centres such as Yabelo, Mega, Moyale and Negele, it is likely that a growing number of unemployed pastoral emigrants would negatively affect the general social welfare. The needs of the nation in terms of animal offtake could also be affected, and it is possible that both positive and negative results could occur: It is conceivable, for example, that one benefit could be an increased supply of marketable sheep from producers diversifying to cope with increasing poverty, as long as epidemic diseases of sheep are controlled. Increased sheep production and offtake however, could also result from higher prices and improved marketing channels and without the spectre of negative system change.
For cattle, it is assumed that prices will increase to become more competitive with those of the Kenya black market (Solomon Desta, TLDP economist, personal communication). If the extent of poverty increases, cattle inventories per capita would become smaller and less diverse for producers who remain in the system. This could result in an increasing pressure on households in trying to retain cattle for wealth accumulation; marketed offtake could then decline over time in conjunction with an increase in price. This tendency would tee somewhat offset by an increased need to sell cattle to buy food, unless small ruminants emerged as a viable substitute. One negative means to spur cattle offtake over the longer term would be to keep cattle prices low, but this strategy would only redirect offtake to Kenya. The strategy could also undermine survival of poor households and lead to more emigration of poor people to local urban centres.
A positive solution would be to promote interventions that improve household wealth and security and obtain offtake from a sustainable population of producers. The encroachment of people and livestock into traditonal grazing reserves is another critical issue. A more stable cattle population, with highlands grain available at favourable terms of trade, should help stem the need for the Boran to cultivate. There should thus be long-term implications of this strategy for ecological sustainability of the system.
Finally, it is proposed that it is in the long-term interest of the Ethiopian Government to encourage development among the Boran to help preserve the traditional social order. If this is not done, the entire production system could become unsustainable. There would be no other means to ensure, for example, that the wells operate efficiently in dry seasons. Without other viable technical options, human labour remains as the best means to ensure that the system continues to provide animals for the rest of the nation. The social order ensures well operation and maintenance. A loss of social traditions also implies that indigenous production-related knowledge about land use, forage and animal management could be lost.
In sum, the problem becomes how to achieve agricultural growth, reduce poverty, improve prospects for ecological sustainability, enhance stability and predictability in the production system, and increase the economic contribution of the Boran to the rest of the nation. A possible solution to this dilemma is described below.
The following scenario offers a number of options. These options are structured to deal with a hierarchy of priorities. The options also vary in their degree of immediate applicability. Despite that some ideas cannot be readily implemented, they are forwarded to illustrate important system interactions and constraints that must be overcome if sustainable development has any chance of happening.
Although the Boran find themselves in a difficult situation today, they do have two major advantages that could help them dig their way out of the crisis and create wealth: (1) the Boran have an explosive capability to generate animals; and (2) they have a high degree of open-mindedness concerning the adoption of appropriate innovations. The main challenge is how to help the Boran better manage and accumulate wealth accrued from animal production to benefit themselves and the society at large.
General strategy
Priorities are listed in order of their importance as follows. Each priority has a short and long-term dimension. Priorities are interrelated in that attainment of one goal increases the likelihood that subsequent goals can be realised. The priorities are: (1) improve food security; (2) reduce risks associated with animal production and asset accumulation; (3) improve livestock production and herd turnover; and (4) enhance emigration of pastoralists out of the system in a fashion which is beneficial to the society at large; and (5) increase prospects for the long-term sustainability of the system based on social and ecological factors. Importantly, the applicable time scales for the attainment of each goal vary. Efforts to improve food security must be tried now. Interventions to reduce producer risks can begin now, but the benefits would not be realised for a few years. Interventions to enhance system sustainability are intertwined with the others and could begin soon. Realising the goal of system sustainability, however, would require a time frame of a generation or more.
If it is assumed that the first priority of food security can be dealt with, attainment of the second priority is the key to everything else that follows The one linch-pin of the entire strategy is instituting an alternative wealth storage from came to simple savings accounts in local banks. Over the long term it is proposed that the future of Boran society be strongly linked to the growth and economic development of local towns such as Yabelo, Mega, Negele and Moyale. These are the source of market outlets and jobs. The banking linkage would actually help the towns prosper with the help of the Boran, thereby completing an economic loop of mutual assistance. Storage of animal wealth in banks may not always offer the best mix of returns and risk reduction compared to investment in urban commercial opportunities, but banking is thought to be the most appropriate option for the largest proportion of the pastoral population.
Pastoral development in the southern rangelands has to be fundamentally based on further expansion and development of major towns. In total these towns may have an urban population of around 30000 today. Considering the 15475-km2 study area, the total pastoral population may be around 85000 (Section 7.2: A theory of local system dynamics). The urban population may thus constitute a surprising 35% of the regional population of 115000.
The towns currently provide the major local markets to absorb sales of animals and dairy products. The major employment opportunities in these towns appears to be shop keeping and government administration. Ideally these towns should offer more job opportunities for unskilled labourers in the future to facilitate emigration of people out of the pastoral sector. There is little doubt, however, that there are high rates of unemployment among urban dwellers in these towns today; so it is recognised that prospects for job creation based on existing resources are nil (Girma Bisrat, PADEP Coordinator, personal communication). Officials responsible for regional development planning must consider creation of labour-intensive industries in these towns. These could include efforts to create value-added products based on local resources such as hides and skins or industries which complement or substitute for cross-border commodity trade with Kenya. These are important topics for investigation by expert consultants. If capital is a major constraint for developing local industries, it is to be recalled from Chapter 7 that there is tremendous potential for generating such capital if the Boran could be enticed to manage some of their cattle assets as savings accounts in local banks as part of their risk-management strategy.
It was calculated that if each middle class and wealthy family in the study area were to bank the value of one to three head of male cattle per household, respectively, this would generate the equivalent of US$1.7 million per year from an offtake of 14500 head. If the regional cattle herd could be held at less than 300000 head, this could also reduce risks of animal mortality and production decreases due to density-dependent interactions. This invokes concepts of sustainable yield. The offtake of 14500 head is just 26% of a net annual increase of 54000 head in an average rainfall year, which was calculated after subtracting 14000 head for routine purchase of grain and other essentials. In a dry year, the net increase may be much smaller (on the order of 12000 head) because grain purchases rise and cattle production slightly declines.
Implementation details
Implications of the systems theory: In Section 7.2: A theory of local system dynamics, it is proposed that two fundamental patterns influence system change: (1) a long-term trend based on the declining ratio of cattle to people; and (2) interdrought cycles based on variable stocking rates of cattle that force social, economic and production adjustments by the Boran on a year-to-year basis. The interdrought cycle consists of a multi-year drought-recovery phase followed by a potentially multi-year high-density phase. The most important period to exploit for faster development impact is the interdrought cycle. For long-term system management, it is important to deal with long-term trends. In addition to the drought-recovery and the high-density phases, drought itself comprises a third system phase. Means to deal with drought are considered more in the context of relief and rehabilitation, however, and measures to deal with drought are described in Section 7.3.3.7: Mitigation of drought impact
It is proposed that following the aftermath of the 1990-91 drought, the years 1992-96 will constitute the drought-recovery phase. There is a high probability that the years 1992-96 would have adequate rainfall to allow substantial herd growth with roughly a 75% chance that these five years would contain one dry year or shorter. There is thus about a 25% chance that rainfall would be markedly below average for two or more years, which could disrupt rapid growth of the regional cattle herd that is otherwise anticipated during the drought-recovery phase.
Many Boran will go hungry throughout the drought-recovery phase and thus will try to expand cultivation. Those in pert-urban locations that are unable to secure enough home grown grain will try to purchase it by selling milk and small ruminants. Milk will be sold from a food-deficit situation and small ruminants will substitute cattle for sale, where possible. The people will try to produce and accumulate cattle as quickly as they can. Male cattle will be traded for cows, where possible, to obtain milk cows from farmers in the southern highlands. The southern highlands will increasingly serve as a reservoir for cattle to restock the southern rangelands after droughts. Crossbreeding highland and lowland stocks may endanger genetic conservation of the Boran breed (see Section 6.4.5: Equilibrial versus non-equilibrial population dynamics and Section 5.4.5: Cattle growth and implications for breed persistence).
Around 1996-97, it is postulated that cattle production per unit area would peak. This assumes near-average rainfall during these years. density-dependent factors, due to increased competition among cattle for a finite base of forage, will then begin to cause cattle productivity to decline per head and per unit area in subsequent years. Fewer Boran will be hungry compared to the drought-recovery phase, but they will need to increase their efforts to cultivate once again. Cattle sales to procure grain will increase from a larger standing herd, in addition to sales of small ruminants. Sales of milk and butter from peri-urban producers will surge from an increasing food-deficit situation.
The high-density phase would begin around 1997. There is a 50% chance, based on rainfall probabilities, that the first three years of the high-density phase (i.e. 1997-2000) would have near-normal rainfall. Under these conditions it would be a time of subtle, but chronic, decline in livestock productivity, increased cultivation, increased conservatism and risk-averse behaviour among producers, and increased chance for grazing-induced establishment of bush seedlings and other forms of range degradation. Prospects for range degradation may increase if rainfall is slightly above average (Section 7.2.3.1: Range ecology). Calf mortality should rise and milk production should decrease, even if adult cattle are able to hang on and survive. As argued in Section 6.4.5: Equilibrial versus non-equilibrial population dynamics, the devastation on the production system from drought in recent times is caused by low rainfall in conjunction with high stocking rates and gradual loss of grazing reserves. All this combines to dramatically increase risks of widespread animal mortality because of insufficient supplies of forage energy. There is a 36% chance that there would be one dry year in the three-year period from 19972000 and a 14% chance of two or more dry years. The problem then becomes that at high stocking rates, there is about a 50% chance overall of a drought-induced population crash during the first three years of the high-density phase.
There are key technical and policy interventions which should be implemented to: (1) lessen the negative effects of the long-term trend; or (2) promote step-wise development impacts during the interdrought cycles. Impact of interventions employed during the interdrought cycle will vary depending upon whether they are implemented during: (1) the drought-recovery phase or (2) high-density phase.
Whether it is short or long-term, impact on human welfare can only be achieved if there is the political will and logistical capability for implementing development intervention. Importantly, widespread impact from policy and technical interventions can only be achieved if the various governmental and nongovernmental agencies arrive at a new plane of dialogue and cooperation. Mobilising the human population for improved range development over the long term is far beyond the capability of SORDU to undertake on its own. Other key players include the Borana leadership, the commercial banking sector, the Ministries of Agriculture and Education, local politicians and international organisations.
Best-bet interventions are described below according to development objective and the time scale of impact. Readers should consult previous chapters for particulars that underpin development concepts.
Managing the long-term trend primarily involves policies and procedures which affect patterns of human settlement, carrying capacity for livestock, food production in the form of per capita milk yields and rates of human emigration out of the pastoral sector. Some of the key ideas are as follows:
1) It has been proposed that the recent severity of crashes of the cattle herd because of low rainfall is to a large extent the result of a gradual loss of reliable grazing reserves or fallback areas, both internally in the southern rangelands and externally in adjacent regions. Hence reclaiming internal fallback areas should be a high priority for stabilising the system. It needs to be considered, however, whether people now forced to live in fallback areas could be moved elsewhere if water and other supporting resources could be developed. SORDU has considered moving households at Did Hara madda in response to environmental degradation (SORDU, 1991), SO such concepts have been considered before. A partnership needs to be formed between Borana leaders and local development agents to study possible solutions to this problem now. This may also require research as to current use patterns of fallback regions and whether traditional resource-use customs of the Boran are being enforced or not (see Section 8.3: Research implications). The intervention involving banking livestock capital (see below) could be important in this activity. People using drought reserves should be identified with respect to their home madda. Adjustments to destock the home madda in order to re-accomodate the migrants could be made by banking the value of excess animals.2) As shown in Chapter 7: Development-intervention concepts, there are many opportunities for small-scale production impact at the madda or deda level of resolution. These involve opportunities for technical intervention and resource management that together could have a marked effect on range reclaimation and thus increase its carrying capacity and improve pastoral flexibility over time. A sustained and routine dialogue needs to be opened between the Borana leadership and development agents to prioritise self-help projects with this long-term goal in mind. Ultimately, the most effective approach may involve initial technical assistance from the development agents, with the Boran taking responsibility for financing, implementing and managing any given project. The success of any given project may depend on whether it is implemented in the drought-recovery phase or high-density phase of an interdrought cycle (see below). Along these lines, development and governmental agents should determine whether the Boran desire outside support to augment traditional resource-use regulations that have become less effective under population pressure (see Section 7.3.1.4: Site reclamation). Development agents should become more familiar with such customs, even to the extent of transcribing them and using them as a basis for local resource-use policy. The senior leadership of the Boran should be intimately involved in such a process.
3) Policies and procedures which increase widespread access of young Boran to primary education need to be implemented soon, although effects of education on increasing rates of emigration may not be felt for a number of years. Emigration is also dependent on opportunities outside the pastoral sector. Costs of extending education could be borne, at least in part, by the Boran if creative approaches are pursued. It is anticipated that the Boran are much more open to educating some of their youth compared to a generation ago, although fear that education could accelerate loss of key labourers may remain a prominent concern especially among large herd owners (see Section 7.5: Management of human emigration). The degree to which females as well as males could receive education is subject to the gender biases and priorities of Borana society. It is speculated that males with primary education may have a greater tendency to leave the system permanently compared to females. Economic diversification of the production system may thus depend to a greater degree on educated females who remain. Educated females could thus have a key role in facilitating risk management initiatives such as banking livestock capital on a sustained basis, because this requires some degree of literacy in the population (see below).
If efforts to stimulate emigration out of the Borana system are successful, one negative result may be that shortages of key manpower may ultimately occur. One example is the need for strong men to raise water in the shaft of the deep wells. It is not likely that women or children could substitute very effectively in this regard. If shortages of key labour begin to occur, SORDU and other agents need to consider replacement innovations. One such example is the recent effort to reduce the depth of some well shafts by lowering the surface access area using excavation with heavy machinery (Tilaye Bekele, TLDP, personal communication). Such an intervention could reduce the labour requirement by reducing the length of the human chain needed to raise the water.
The negative aspect of such an innovation, however, is that the well modification may need to be accompanied by new practices that protect the right of the poor to access resources. Like installation of diesel pumps, any intervention that dramatically reduces the need for labour in the wells runs the risk that influential people can then take control of wells for watering only their large herds. Traditionally the wealthy have been dependent upon the poor for labour, and compensation is made accordingly. Rapid removal of this dependency could accelerate wealth stratification and bode unfavourably for the society overall. In sum, SORDU needs to have a periodic policy review of its intervention concepts and weigh impacts of its actions taking into consideration the system dynamics at all times.
4) Policies which continue to stimulate population growth of the small towns in the rangelands are important if growth can be managed and negative aspects of resource use minimised. Recent growth of the small towns has reportedly been due in a large measure to immigration from other parts of the country. Since urban growth could translate into an increasing local demand for milk, butter, beef, small ruminants and poultry products, it has significant implications for creating larger market opportunities for the Boran. One negative aspect of urban growth, however, could be increased pert-urban cultivation on fragile upland soils by immigrant farmers and an increasing demand for firewood and charcoal that could place new and growing pressure on the surrounding areas, leading to environmental degradation. Lack of a high demand for fuel locally in the past may have discouraged illegal charcoal production.
Improved cultivation practices among urban farmers could be a first step in promoting integrated resource use in the southern rangelands, and this is also within the logistical capability of the Ministry of Agriculture with branches in the Borana towns (see technical perspectives below). With regard to the use of fire wood, it is proposed that SORDU initiate some pilot study as to whether the Boran in madda surrounding urban areas could control this themselves. While this may not appear as a sound idea at first experiences near Awash Park in the Ethiopian Rift Valley suggest that pastoralists can be very effective in monitoring resource use by town dwellers (C. Schloeder, Ethiopian Wildlife Conservation Organisation, personal communication). Pastoralists near towns have a vested interest in not allowing urban dwellers to exploit resources without payment such as maintaining a viable community of indigenous trees for their browsing livestock especially since these are in decline. The fact that the Afar and Kereyou pastoralists, like the Boran, are heavily armed, makes merely the threat of enforcement sufficient to discourage overharvesting of trees.
5) Another long-term perspective that should receive attention now is whether a viable urban development strategy for towns such as Yabelo, Mega, Negele and Moyale based on local industries is feasible. As already proposed earlier in this section an economic link of mutual benefit between these towns and the pastoral population is a vital concept in regional development. Development of labour-intensive industries should be linked to provision of capital loans by local banks made possible by Borana livestock sales. Recommendations for urban development strategies require considerable creativity and know-how. Such task falls in the domain of expertise consultants and experienced planners. To the extent that government offices support the economy of these small towns, considerable thought needs to be given as to whether government presence should be consolidated or diversified in terms of location. Abruptly closing government offices would probably have considerable negative effects on the economy of towns such as Yabelo and Negele.
6) Banking livestock capital in the from of male cattle is envisioned as an intervention with major implications for managing the system over the short to medium term, and as such is forwarded as an intervention in the context of the interdrought cycle (below). The alternative of keeping cattle wealth as bank accounts also has implications for risk management and food production over the long term in that it could promote a gradual increase in the proportion of milk cows in the regional herd without compromising the asset accumulating and risk mitigating capability of households. Otherwise it is envisioned that the Boran will increase the proportion of milk cows as a tactic to offset human population pressure and maintain per capita milk production with a proportional decline in their capability to mitigate economic risks. Without opportunities to bank livestock capital the outcome of the situation would probably be one of increased rates of households dropping out of the system following droughts and other perturbations, along with increased expansion of cultivation. In order to ensure that banking livestock capital has a positive effect on the production system, by reducing competition for forage among cattle, measures should be taken to facilitate purchases that result in animals being taken out of the system after they are sold.
7) Export of cattle and sheep from the rangelands is reported to comprise one of the most important sources of foreign exchange for the nation. Given this, it is unfortunate that range-development groups such as SORDU are unable to come by even very modest amounts of foreign exchange on a regular basis to secure resources they need for efforts to improve livestock production and human welfare among the Boran. There is, for example, a need to import veterinary supplies, arboricides, acaricides and a regular allotment of fuel for the maintenance of infrastructure. Policies which serve to recognise the return from livestock production to the nations' foreign exchange balance, and hence facilitate access by range-development groups to a modest amount of foreign exchange, are desireable.
The Boran have repeatedly stressed that they can compensate investment for water development and veterinary support projects through increased livestock sales. Such compensation even in local currency is better than nothing. It may be argued that to be truly sustainable, development of the southern rangelands should never rely on any foreign exchange. While there is some validity to this argument, if this is to be the case, then expectations for development impact should be lowered. Earlier in this chapter it is argued that increased famine and other disruptions to the social order in Borana will bode unfavourably for the national economy. The long-term picture suggests that in the absence of reliance on foreign exchange, Ethiopia must develop its own capabilities to produce pharmaceuticals, chemicals and fossil fuel.
Development interventions must be segregated according to the two phases in the interdrought cycle. Those dependent on low stocking rates would be more successful in the drought-recovery phase; those dependent on high stocking rates would be more successful in the high-density phase. The current interdrought cycle is stipulated for the period covering 1992-97. There are some policy interventions described in the context of the interdrought cycle that could also be forwarded with the aim of mitigating the long-term negative trend (above). They are listed here, however, because their impacts could be felt over the short or medium term as well.
Impact in the drought-recovery phase, 1992- 96: The top priority overall is to improve food security. Secondary priorities are to begin setting the stage for improvements in risk management of pastoral assets and reducing environmental degradation.
The following interventions are considered important because they complement tactics that the Boran would be employing any way during 199296. These tactics include: (1) growing maize for food (2) selling milk in pert-urban areas; (3) selling more small ruminants; and (4) trying to build up their cattle herds through recruitment and trade.
Policies: The concepts governing intervention policies and procedures should be as follows:
1) Today the top national priority is to facilitate the continued presence of international organisations which are actively feeding people in the southern rangelands.2) At regional and national levels, policies that could have the most positive impact in reducing the need for relief grain within a couple of years would be those that encourage higher production of maize in and facilitate its free flow to the southern highlands. It is recognised that increased cereal production and promotion of a freer flow of commerce involves complex regional and national issues (see Section 8.2.1: Future role of the lowlands in the national economy). Allowing, for example, animal prices to rise in Borana to levels that are competitive with Kenya could also shift the flow of marketed livestock from Kenya back to Ethiopia. This could help complete regional linkages in the livestock-for-grain trade at more favourable terms for producers. Improved terms of trade and the increased reliability of markets should have a big and relatively rapid impact in helping pert-urban Boran feed themselves by selling animals and possibly reduce their need to expand cereal cultivation on fragile upland soils.
If the international market for sheep exports is promising, or if it is deemed that the domestic demand could be better supplied, then another policy initiative should be to actively push for increased sheep offtake from the southern rangelands. The Boran have shown themselves to be responsive to such demand in the past. This is not the time to push for increased cattle offtake because sales could work against the interests of many Borana households who are primarily interested in building up herd numbers.
3) Measures originating from regional or national levels and directed at improving access of pastoralists in remote areas to regional markets, so they can sell perishable commodities such as - milk and butter, are also important. These include supporting road-maintenance activities, grass-roots service cooperatives (Hogg, 1990a) and rural bus service and other means of transport. Local policy makers should also consider whether the activities of itinerant traders could be facilitated.
4) At the local level, policy makers and land-use planners should be guided by perspectives given in Section 2.4.1.4: Climate, primary production and carrying capacity and Chapter 3: Vegetation dynamics and resource use, to identify valleys where cultivation by the Boran could be permitted with little risk to the sustainability of soil resources. In total area these may comprise less than 10% of the study area. Ways should be explored to convince the Borana leadership that it is to their self-interest to restrict cereal cultivation to conserve range resources for livestock and limit ecological damage to upland soils. Ultimately, it is conceded that cultivation can only be controlled if the Boran are convinced that a balance between livestock production and cultivation is in their best interest as a society. Proclamations made at the 1988 Gumi Gayu assembly suggest that the leadership seeks to sustain their natural resource base (Section 2.4.2.2: Some cultural and organisational features).
5) Policies that promote saving accounts in banks by pastoralists need to be reviewed now. Considerations as to whether more branch banks should be opened in the local towns and whether bank procedures can be creatively modified to accomodate illiterate people should figure prominently in these policies as well as incentives for pastoralists who are wiling to bank some of their livestock assets. Extension services dealing with banking livestock capital should focus on those Boran who apparently are already involved in the banking system (see Section 7.3.3.6: Cattle marketing and Section 7.3.3.7: Mitigation of drought impact). Implementation of such measures would have to forge new partnerships among the Borana leadership, SORDU, nongovernmental organizations, the banking sector and local government administrators. Given the right information and easy access, some Boran could banking a few animals even during the drought-recovery phase. The most favourable time for promoting the practice, however, would be in the high-density phase (see below). Pastoralists that take to this strategy would accumulate cash assets for coping with unfavourable terms of trade during drought.
Banking is also an intervention with a prospect for major impact that is more consistent with the highly constrained extension capabilites of development organisations. But detailed research that focuses on the risk, in the different phases of the interdrought cycle, of banking versus holding livestock may need to be undertaken (see Section 8.3: Research implications).
Banking livestock capital is forwarded as the single most comprehensive measure to encourage agricultural growth, reduce poverty, increase system stability and minimise the possibilities of environmental degradation. The key is that increased animal offtake can benefit production, and if offtake can be conserved as wealth, the producers benefit in several ways. If means can be found to give illiterate people access to the banking system, and their anxiety about this new practice can be reduced if not removed, the only constraint of this intervention may be national policy involving management of inflation.
Technical interventions: Technical interventions fall more in the traditional realm of efforts targeted at improving commodity production and the priority concepts for the drought-recovery phase involve improving food production (especially grain and milk). Compared to policy interventions, technical interventions will be much more difficult to implement, especially if they require significant extension work. This is not because of constraints arising from the indigenous environment per se, but because lack of manpower, fuel and vehicles greatly limits the capability of extension services in meeting routine needs in a pastoral community in which producers are widely dispersed. Priority interventions should thus be those that the Boran can carry out themselves. An example of this is hay-making using local grasses. Development agents need to make good use of group seminar formats and community meetings to extend new ideas to the Boran. This could partially compensate for the lack of easy mobility that now characterises extension service. In any event some of the technical concepts are:
1) Cultivation will expand. However, if it does not expand over the short term, there is a serious risk of famine. One means to discourage expansion of cultivation to unsuitable sites is to enhance production on the more suitable ones such as valley bottoms. By doing that the negative consequences of expanding cultivation on the system could be minimised, especially if provisions could be made to also maintain strategic grazing resources. If the long-term trend is well managed, the need for cultivation may decline in the future which implies that cultivation may be a solution for crisis management only over the medium term.Nothing short of sending in the army would discourage the Boran from cultivating now. So SORDU, the Ministry of Agriculture, and nongovernmental organizations need to make a combined effort to diagnose sources of inefficency in local maize production and promote basic interventions for sustainable crop production. These could include introducing and improving site selection, tillage, planting, weeding, intercropping and managing soil nutrients using crop rotation and manure. Such efforts should begin with the pert-urban farmers. Experience has shown that the Boran learn quickly, taking good farming ideas back to remote locations. The problem is that yields are probably low and extensive methods pose a larger threat to the environment. It was stated in Section 7.3.2: Land-use policy and agronomic interventions, that the Boran will probably not intensify cultivation until they perceive that the benefits of intensification outweigh the costs of the additional labour. A case in point is the better use of the mountains of manure at encampments. Simply providing a better means for the people to transport manure from corrals to the fields could do if soil fertility is the primary crop-production constraint. Hodgson (1990) demonstrated that even simple two-wheeled carts were not sustainable in the southern rangelands because of a lack of welding and metal-working capability in the urban sector.
Three guiding principles are important for crop production interventions: (1) introduction of forage intercrops with maize will fail unless they are dual purpose and also provide food for people; (2) new intercrops should lower the risks of cultivation by providing food for people under rainfall conditions when maize fails because of other reasons; and (3) a major problem with sustaining new crop varieties in the rangelands is merely a reliable source of seeds. Yohannes Alemseged (1989) convincingly demonstrated that dual-purpose cowpea was the best intercrop among the species he tested in terms of yield of seeds and forage and with low competition with maize. Cowpea is also perceived by the Boran to be more successful under less rain than maize. Dual-purpose cowpea should thus form the basis of crop production intervention strategies. Access to seed could be facilitated by improved interactions among the Boran and local farmers. Procedures that facilitate these interactions would have to be sought and actively promoted.
2) A related topic includes extending improved means to store grain and thereby reduce losses to pests and capitalise on seasonal marketing strategies to improve terms of trade of livestock for grain (Hodgson, 1990; Coppock, 1992b). Improved grain storage at the household or encampment level can involve storage below or above ground; more effort needs to be made as to whether regional grain stores managed by development agencies are feasible. While the need for improved grain storage will be high during the drought-recovery phase, this will be a time when the average Boran household will be less able to pay for interventions through cattle sales. However, both ability and willingness to pay should increase during the high-density phase.
3) The next priority is to increase milk production. As shown earlier in this volume, fundamental shortages of water and forage prohibit improved and sustainable feeding strategies for milk cows under existing conditions. This is true even though forage quantity is less of a problem for cows during the drought-recovery phase because of reduced competition resulting from lower stocking rates. So solutions connected with increased milk production lie more in the realm of animal health.
With a decline in central government authority in 1991, it is expected that the Boran now routinely burn the rangeland to cope with bush encroachment, improve forage quality and control tick infestation. While the ultimate danger may be that the Boran will bum areas too often because of a growing demand for resources some benefits are probably already being realised for the production system over the short term. A survey of 560 milk cows in 1989 revealed that 15% of their teats were closed off due to tick damage. If the healthy teats are unable to compensate for the damaged ones, this problem may have very significant implications in reducing milk production in the system. Ticks have been mentioned as one of the major constraints for animal production here. Acaricides were invented over 50 years ago, and yet they have not been available in Ethiopia for some time. The notion that range development requires new technology is undermined by the fact that existing technologies have gone unimplemented. There have been several reasons forwarded as to why acaricides are not available in the southern rangelands since the SLDP (1973-81). The ultimate constraint is the fact SORDU cannot gain access to sufficient foreign exchange to import acaricides; this is viewed as ironic since the southern rangelands have been expected to be a major generator of foreign exchange from exports of cattle and sheep (as discussed above). But even given the acaricides, SORDU would have a difficult time extending this service because of shortages of vehicles and trained manpower. Devising sustainable means of extending the use of acaricides in Borana could have important impacts on livestock productivity and human welfare. It would also give a much needed boost to improved public relations with the pastoralists.
4) Increased milk production is related also to the ability of cows to maintain long lactations. Lactations in the Boran cattle breed can easily be lengthened by simply keeping calves alive (Donaldson, 1986). Improved calf-feeding management in the form of grass hay, with local legumes providing protein supplements, should be extended soon. While it is envisioned that hay-making would be beneficial to milk production, human labour and calf nutrition during the high-density phase, there could be significant impact for some households during the drought-recovery phase as well.
The major benefit of hay-making intervention should be in terms of improved calf condition and reduced mortality rates with the associated effect of extending lactations, especially in dry seasons. The initial target population should be the poorer households in pert-urban locations that have a higher risk of losing calves connected with their daily need to sell milk to purchase survival rations of grain (Holder et al, 1991). That the initial target population should be in pert-urban locations is fortunate since this reduces logistical demands on extension agents. Extension should focus on proper hay preparation to minimise risks of spoilage and means to protect hay fields from grazing stock using the kalo concept or integrating hay fields within crop enclosures. Establishing new grass swards for hay production should focus on the best local species, considering ecological niches and other factors mentioned in Section 2.4.1.5: Native vegetation and Section 7.3.1.4: Site reclamation. Feeding packages involving native legumes should be tailored to the local availability of nutritious browses and crop residues such as cowpea (Section 7.3.1.3: Forage Improved management of cowpea residue in terms of encouraging leaf retention at harvest and proper storage should also be a priority.
5) Other means to promote longer lactations by avoiding calf mortality involve improved veterinary extension services. Mulugeta Assefa (1990) found a marked contrast between the likelihood of health delivery for adult came versus that for calves. Adult cattle have an advantage because they can be walked to clinics for attention, not calves. Hence priority intervention in this respect must involve improved health care for calves derived at the "farm gate", and animals held by all wealth classes should receive this attention. Calves of the poor are more vulnerable to diseases exacerbated by lower planes of nutrition caused by milk restriction. Calves of the wealthy have a higher plane of nutrition, but are still vulnerable to disease outbreaks encouraged by lower management inputs per calf.
Just improving health extension for calves in pert-urban locations would be a major achievement, and would again be consistent with the limited logistical capabilities of the SORDU veterinary service. As reviewed in Section 5.4.3: Cattle mortality and health, SORDU's veterinary service has been difficult to sustain. This is due to difficulties in importing veterinary supplies and shortages of vehicles and fuel for extension. Earlier attempts have been made to train Boran as "veterinary scouts" and serve as local extension agents, but this has also proven unsustainable. There have been recent initiatives to have the Boran pay for veterinary service and this should improve prospects for sustainability as far as funding in local currency is concerned. Until problems of logistics and funding are solved, there is little hope that widespread improvements in veterinary service will take place. This is why hay-making should be the top priority in coping with calf losses caused by interactions between poor nutrition and disease.
6) Small ruminants reproduce quickly and can help households recover from drought by providing a substitute for cattle as sale item (Coppock, 1992b). Given that providing health care appears to be the major production constraint, improved veterinary extension service for sheep and goats is desirable, even if restricted to focus on households in pert-urban locations.
7) The drought-recovery phase is characterised by lower stocking rates of cattle compared to the high-density phase. Because lower stocking rates result in less demand on grazing resources, efforts to reclaim or rehabilitate degraded sites should be undertaken in the drought-recovery phase on a madda-specific basis. While the effects of site reclamation on carrying capacity and milk production may not be felt for several years, the possibilites for implementing such projects are greater in the drought-recovery phase, mainly because a smaller cattle population increases the chance that standing swards can be set aside for burning during dry periods. In general, the Boran should prioritise sites for attention, and should be responsible for implementing and funding projects with initial technical assistance from SORDU. Pilot projects could focus on madda either in pert-urban areas or those involved in the development of SCs (Hogg, 1990a). Interventions directed at site reclamation could include prescribed burning of bush-encroached sites where the grass layer has recovered, followed by hand-felling of noxious adult trees, application of arboricides to stumps and charcoal-making to recoup labour costs (Section 7.3.1.4: Site reclamation). While using fire alone may be the only sustainable management practice at this time, fire may not get rid of all adult trees. Arboricides have been shown to be necessary to prohibit bushy regrowth of some species, and are very cost effective. Some bush-control projects could be delayed, however, until the next drought to provide a source of employment if regulated charcoal-making is deemed as an appropriate means of generating income.
8) Given the acute need of the Boran for better access to markets, development agents should consider means to help people far from markets procure preferably male camels to transport goods. This may involve organising prospective buyers to visit as a group camel markets outside of Borana territory. The primary advantage camels have for the Boran is in increasing their capability to obtain large quantities of grain from markets away from their encampments. While initiatives regarding camel acquisition could start during the drought-recovery phase, the ability of the Boran to pay for them would be greater in the high-density phase after their cattle herds have recovered their numbers.
Intervention impact in the high-density phase, 1997-?: The top priority overall is to help the Boran better manage risks of retaining their accumulated assets of cattle This involves economic and ecological management concepts. Food security will still be a problem as long as the long-term trend is not being effectively arrested, and this also remains as a priority. The next priority would be facilitating using livestock capital to improve the production system in terms of maintenance of water points and related activities.
The following interventions have been evaluated as important because complement tactics or attitudes that should characterise the Boran more during the high-density phase. These include: (1) greater attention to local and regional grazing management under high stocking rates to maintain milk production and reduce risks of cattle mortality; (2) selling more cattle and butter in addition to small ruminants and milk; (3) efforts to improve water resources in order to diversify grazing resources; and (4) more conservative production attitudes, especially among the wealthy.
All of the activities initiated during the drought-recovery phase (see above) should be on-going except perhaps site reclamation based on prescribed burning since heavy cattle grazing would reduce the likelihood that large standing crops of grass could be maintained in the high-density phase. Because herd inventories will have grown, the capability for the Boran to pay for any service during the high-density phase will be much improved. They will also be conscious of the greatly increased risks of cattle mortality resulting from low rainfall so that the wealthy or others desiring more influence in the community may use the opportunity to divest of some cattle to gain social benefits and status by contributing donating to important community projects (Coppock, 1992b).
It is assumed that by 1997 a rational strategy to de-populate grazing areas reserved for times of drought will have been employed (see above). If not, the danger of catastrophic herd loss due to drought will remain.
Policies: Concepts for policies and procedures for the high-density phase are as follows:
1) Assuming that the regional cattle herd will grow steadily during the drought-recovery phase, by the mid-1990s the risk of climate-induced herd losses and famine will begin to rise once again. Relief and rehabilitation agencies should be prepared for this scenario. In addition, planners could delay community works projects (i.e. road maintenance, bush clearing etc) that require large inputs of labour for implementation after the onset of drought to help meet a higher demand for paid employment.2) Given some initial years with near normal rainfall, development should be prepared to deal, during the high-density phase, with an improved opportunity for projects funded by proceeds from cattle sales. These prominently include efforts to maintain or re-excavate wells, desilt ponds and construct cisterns and grain stores. Preparations to exploit the situation should include providing fuel and spare parts to allow reliable use of heavy machinery, facilitating access to critical construction materials, and instituting means to coordinate the collection and disbursement of project funds generated from livestock sales. Sales should be coordinated with traders to help ensure that once cattle are sold they are removed from the system and not merely recirculated within it.
3) The high-density phase is the time for a major push for the community to bank livestock capital. Acute fears of extensive animal losses among the community should accelerate demand for this intervention, especially among wealthier households. Madda with cattle herds that have restricted access to grazing reserves could be prioritised for this activity.
Technical interventions: As in the drought-recovery phase, these interventions fall more in the realm of commodity production. They are:
1) Interventions such as hay-making and collecting leguminous supplements for improved calf management should be more important to the Boran during the high-density phase when resource competition intensifies.2) It is when resources are under pressure that opportunities for improved grazing management approaches exist at the madda or deda level of resolution. Concepts forwarded in Section 7.3.1.2: Grazing management could be applied on a case-by-case basis. The Boran should be encouraged to pay for grazing-management-project inputs using livestock sales.
3) Range planners should consider whether technical improvements in maximising forage abundance or water distribution are warranted as regards grazing ranges reserved for times of drought. In consultation with Borana leaders, such grazing reserves should be well understood in terms of their areal extent, site diversity, likely standing crops of forage at the beginning of a drought, water resources and temporal patterns of use by cattle during a multi-year drought. Armed with such knowledge, planners could better anticipate the capacity of grazing reserves to buffer the effects of cattle overpopulation. Estimates of potential cattle mortality due to the insufficient capacity of grazing reserves could provide quantitative targets for regional initiatives to bank livestock capital and help to minimise losses of pastoral assets.
Assuming that markets are opened, inflation managed, some cattle assets banked, grazing reserves reclaimed, and some groups of the pastoral population emigrate out of the system at increased rates, the subsequent drought-recovery phase after 1997 should be less catastrophic than the one during 1992-96. A larger percentage of the population would have some cash assets, fewer milk cows would have died as a result of density-dependent interactions and there would be a declining need for the Boran to cultivate. Under proper management the system would essentially become less dynamic in terms of the "boom and bust" cycle as driven by dramatic changes in the cattle stocking rate. Consequently, the drought-recovery phase starting after 1997 would be shorter than the one in 1992-96, and this could slightly reduce the length of time in which to implement range rehabilitation projects which are dependent upon low stocking rates. Virtually all of the development-intervention concepts employed in the first interdrought cycle would remain very useful and valid; it is just that the need could be less acute. Offtake of cattle could be more predictable, possibly to the benefit of national economic planning.
