2. Livestock production, consumption and trade

The production structure
General and per capita consumption structure
Patterns of international trade in meat and milk
Policy implications

This chapter examines the main features of the livestock subsector in the selected countries by assessing trends in production, trade and consumption of certain livestock products. The discussion is confined to cattle, sheep and goats (the three ruminant species presently included in ILCA's research agenda) and to the food products derived from them (i.e. meat and milk). The policy implications of the observed trends are briefly discussed to set the context for the discussion of pricing policy that follows.

The production structure

Trends in meat and milk production

Although there are many similarities in the livestock production systems of SSA, there are also important variations. Such variations reflect differences in climate, availability of grazing land and incidence of diseases such as trypanosomiasis. In the countries selected for this study, pastoral systems account for the bulk of ruminant livestock production, except in Zimbabwe where cattle ranching and mixed crop-livestock production systems are very important.

Aggregate meat production and related data for the selected countries are shown in Table 1. The selected countries together account for almost half the total meat production (by weight) in SSA. ² Per capita meat production varies, from about 8.5 kg per person in Nigeria to 25.3 kg per person in Sudan, reflecting substantial differences in population and pastoral resources among the countries considered.

^2. The corresponding figure for milk is also about 50 % (see Table 2).

Table 1. Meat production, human population and per capita gross national product in the selected countries, 1985.

Country	Total meat production1 ('000 t)	Human population mid-1985 (millions)	Per capita meat production (kg)	Per capita GNP (US$)
Côte d'Ivoire	127	10.1	12.6	660
Ethiopia	556	42.3	13.1	110
Mali	134	7.5	17.9	150
Nigeria	846	99.7	8.5	800
Sudan	553	21.9	25.3	300
Zimbabwe	110	8.4	13.1	680
Total, selected countries	2326	189.9	12.3
SSA	4875	418.0	11.7	400

^1. Relates to meat from different livestock species slaughtered within national boundaries, regardless of their origin FAO (1986a).

Sources: FAO (1986a) for total meat production data; World Bank (1987) for human population and GNP figures.

Beef accounts for 41% (by weight) of total meat production in the selected countries. It is followed in importance by goat meat (12%) and mutton (11%). Domestic milk production is also important, but Sudan alone accounts for over 50% of total milk production in these countries (Table 2). When products are weighted by equivalent border prices, ³ the value of beef is the highest, followed by milk, mutton and goat meat, in that order.

^3. Border equivalent prices are world prices adjusted for transport and marketing costs. For a country, border prices represent opportunity costs at which goods can be exported or imported. See Appendix 1 for a description of how they are derived for the study countries.

Aggregate meat shares, however, conceal important country variations in production. The share of beef in total meat output varies among countries from 29 to 64%. For goat meat the share is 4 to 16% and for mutton and iamb, 1 to 18%. The share of beef is high and about equal in Sudan and Zimbabwe despite enormous differences in production systems. The goat meat share is high in Nigeria and Mali but very low in Zimbabwe and Côte d'Ivoire.

Table 2. Production of livestock products in the selected countries, 1983-85. ¹

Country	Production ('000 t)
	Beef and veal	Mutton and lamb	Goat meat	Cow milk 2
Côte d'Ivoire	42	6	6	15
Ethiopia	215	86	65	600
Mali	49	20	21	106
Nigeria	239	44	134	348
Sudan	309	92	39	1735
Zimbabwe	72	1	5	196
Total, selected countries	926	249	270	3000
Sub-Saharan Africa	2037	379	484	6125

^1. Annual 1983-85 average.
^2. Total production of whole fresh cow milk.

Source: FAO (1986a) and FAO (1987) for 1983 figures.

Trends in meat and milk production

Per capita meat production levels are shown in Table 3. In spite of the limitations of the production data from which these estimates are derived, the ratios do provide an indication of relative change over time. Per capita beef production declined over the period 1971-73 to 1983-85 in all the selected countries, except Sudan. During the 1971-73 to 1977-79 period, only two countries, Mali and Sudan, showed a slight increase in per capita production of goat meat, lamb and mutton though this declined by 1983-85. For the selected periods, total meat production per capita increased modestly in two countries, remained about constant in one and declined in three.

Per capita milk production also varied from country to country over the 12-year period 1971-73 to 1983-85 (Table 4). In one country (Sudan), there was a substantial increase in production, while per capita milk production either declined or remained constant in the remaining countries. The underlying causes of these different production performances are varied, but may include natural disasters (e.g. acute recurring drought) that reduce feed availability, access to external markets and government economic policies. The effects of government economic policies on production incentives are examined in detail in Chapter 4.

General and per capita consumption structure

Trends in meat and milk consumption

Table 5 shows the level of meat consumption in the study countries. Total per capita meat consumption in 1983-85 varied from about 9 to 25 kg reflecting differences in meat prices, income, population and agricultural resources among countries.

Except for Mali in recent years, beef is the principal meat consumed in the study countries. Beef accounts for between 54 and 64% of total meat consumption in Zimbabwe, between 48 and 59% in Sudan, and between 27 and 47% in the remaining countries.

Table 3. Annual average production of meat by country, selected periods.

	Production (kg per capita)
	Beef			Sheep and goat meat			All meat
Country	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85
Côte d'Ivoire	7.6	4.5	4.3	1.8	1.4	1.2	16.4	13.5	12.8
Ethiopia	8.0	6.8	5.1	5.2	4.3	3.6	18.6	16.5	13.2
Mali	7.4	6.4	7.3	4.6	6.7	6.0	17.9	18.8	18.4
Nigeria	3.1	2.7	2.5	2.0	1.9	1.8	8.2	8.2	8.5
Sudan	9.5	11.2	14.5	5.1	6.7	6.2	19.3	22.4	24.6
Zimbabwe	18.8	14.9	9.5	1.4	1.0	0.6	25.1	20.7	14.8
SSA	5.8	5.6	4.8	2.2	2.3	2.1	12.3	12.3	11.5

Sources: Meat production data from FAO (1987; 1989); human population data from World Bank Atlas (various years) and FAO (1989).

Table 4. Annual average production of cow milk by country, selected periods.

	Production (kg per capita)
County	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85
Côte d'Ivoire	1.4	1.3	15
Ethiopia	20.8	18.6	14.4
Mali	18.7	13.8	13.8
Nigeria	4.5	4.1	3.6
Sudan	47.6	58.2	81.5
Zimbabwe	24.6	21.3	23.6
SSA	16.4	15.9	15.2

Source: Meat production data from FAO (1987; 1989); human population data from World Bank atlas (various years) and FAO (1989).

Table 5. Annual average apparent consumption of meat ¹ by country, selected periods. ²

	Consumption (kg per capita)
	Beef			Sheep and goat meat			All meat
Country	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85
Côte d'Ivoire	7.5	7.0	5.5	1.7	1.6	1.3	15.9	15.9	14.5
Ethiopia	7.1	6.8	5.6	5.1	4.4	4.0	17.4	16.4	14.5
Mali	6.7	6.3	4.5	4.2	6.4	5.6	16.4	18.0	15.4
Nigeria	3.3	3.3	2.5	2.1	2.2	1.9	8.7	9.6	9.1
Sudan	10.3	11.1	14.7	5.7	6.7	6.3	21.3	22.6	25.1
Zimbabwe	11.8	6.9	6.6	1.7	1.2	0.7	18.3	12.7	11.4
SSA	6.7	6.6	5.2	2.6	2.5	2.2	14.9	15.2	12.2

^1. Apparent consumption of meat, expressed in terms of carcass weight, is obtained from data on slaughtered production an trade in beef, sheep and goat meat (FAO, 1985).

^2. Figures for 1971-73 and 1977-79 are annual averages based on per capita consumption data from FAO (1985); 1983-85 averages are from ILCA (1987b).

Sources: FAO (1985); ILCA (1987b).

Although sheep and goat meat are widely consumed, their relative importance varies among countries. In 1983-85, the share of sheep and goat meat in total meat consumption was 36% in Mali compared with 6% in Zimbabwe. Overall, the meat products considered here together account for more than 50% of the total meat consumed in the study countries.

Per capita milk consumption also differs greatly among countries, from about 8 kg liquid milk equivalent (LME) in Nigeria to more than 80 kg in Sudan in 1983-85 (Table 6). The wide variation in milk consumption is partly explained by differences in dietary habits. As indicated later on in this chapter, the percentage of total milk consumed that is imported varies from about 5 to 89%, and imports have been rising rapidly in recent years.

Table 6. Annual average apparent consumption of milk ¹ by country, selected periods.

	Milk consumption (kg LME per capita)
Country	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85
Côte d'Ivoire	11.0	16.6	14.6
Ethiopia	21.1	19.4	17.1
Mali	20.7	17.2	17.2
Nigeria	8.0	11.4	7.8
Sudan	48.6	60.2	85.8
Zimbabwe	26.2	21.6	25.8
SSA	18.9	20.7	20.2

^1. Apparent consumption is defined as cow milk production plus net imports of fresh, dried and condensed milk expressed in liquid milk equivalents (LME). No attempt was made to deduct milk fed to calves from the cow milk production figures.

Sources: FAO (1987; 1989); FAO trade yearbook (various issues); ILCA (1987b), and World Bank Atlas (various years).

Trends in meat and milk consumption

Table 5 shows that between 1971-73 and 1983-85 per capita beef consumption fell in five countries and increased only in one. Per capita sheep and goat meat consumption which had risen significantly in Mali and to a lesser extent in Sudan in the 1970s, rose very little in the early 1980s in these two countries. In the remaining countries per capita consumption fell. The share of sheep and goat meat in total meat consumption increased significantly in Mali, but fell in all the other countries.

Per capita consumption of milk rose in the 1970s in Côte d'Ivoire, Nigeria and Sudan (Table 6). While the growth was maintained into the early 1980s in Sudan, consumption declined in Nigeria and Côte d'Ivoire over the same period. In all other countries, per capita consumption of milk was lower in 1983-85 than in 1971-73.

The annual growth rates of total domestic production and consumption of the livestock products considered here appear in Table 7. While growth rates such as those cited in Table 7 are only rough estimates, it would appear that increases in consumption have exceeded domestic production increases by a substantial amount, particularly for milk. The growing gap between domestic production and consumption is further confirmed by the net trade data presented in the next section.

Patterns of international trade in meat and milk

The diversity of trade activities in meat and milk in the selected countries is illustrated by the data presented in Tables 8, 9 and 10 for beet sheep and goat meat and milk, respectively. Live animals make up the bulk of meat exports which are directed mostly towards neighbouring African countries. Ethiopia and Sudan export live animals to the Middle East. Zimbabwe is the only country that exports beef to the EEC under the Lomé convention.

With respect to beef four out of the six countries were net exporters between 1971-73 and 1983-85 (Table 8). Export volumes, however, declined in three and increased only in one. The remaining two countries - Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria - have been net importers. The level of imports in the former has been nearly constant over the past 15 years, but imports rose significantly in the latter.

Table 7. Estimated annual growth rates of total domestic production and consumption of livestock products by country, 1971-85.

		Production	Consumption
Product	Country	Percentage
Beef	Côte d'Ivoire	1.09a	2.45
	Ethiopia	0.30	0.90
	Mali	1.93	-0.35a
	Nigeria	2.71	2.71
	Sudan	6.05	5.49
	Zimbabwe	-257	0.30a
Sheep and goat meat	Côte d'Ivoire	1.98	2.62
	Ethiopia	1.23	1.23
	Mali	5.44	6.15
	Nigeria	3.28	3.14
	Sudan	3.61	4.01
	Zimbabwe	-6.24	-5.40
Cow milk	Côte d'Ivoire	5.46	8.59
	Ethiopia	1.05	2.43
	Mali	1.71a	1.93
	Nigeria	1.83	4.01
	Sudan	7.38	7.70
	Zimbabwe	2.50	2.69

Note: The annual growth rate has been estimated as a log linear trend by ordinary least squares regression.

^a. The regression coefficient used to estimate the growth rate was not significant at the 5% level.

Sources: FAO (1987); FAO trade yearbook (various issues); ILCA (1987b).

Table 8. Average annual trade in beef by country, selected periods. ¹

	Beef trade ('000 t)
	Exports			Imports			Net exports or imports (-)
Country	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85
Côte d'Ivoire	0.0	0.1	0.1	36.5	41.8	37.9	-36.5	-41.7	-37.8
Ethiopia	17.3	2.4	3.7	0.1	0.0	0.2	17.2	2.4	3.5
Mali	21.9	15.7	45.5	1.1	0.3	0.6	20.8	15.4	44.9
Nigeria	0.1	0.3	0.0	34.5	57.9	53.0	-34.4	-57.6	-53.0
Sudan	7.8	2.1	3.4	0.7	0.3	0.4	7.1	1.8	3.0
Zimbabwe	44.6	60.8	21.8	0.0	0.1	0.0	44.6	60.7	21.8
SSA	254.4	212.7	153.0	164.3	196.6	270.4	90.1	16.1	-117.4

^1. Trade data for 1971-73 and 1977-79 are from FAO (1985) and include meat and live animals in terms of carcass weight. To obtain figures for 1983-85, trade data on fresh bovine and canned meat (ILCA 1987b, FAO, 1989) were added to the meat equivalent of live cattle traded. The latter was calculated using FAO (1986a) carcass weights as conversion factors.

Sources: FAO (1985; 1986a; 1989); FAO trade yearbook (1985); ILCA (1987b).

Table 9 shows that Sudan, Mali and Ethiopia have been net exporters of sheep and goat meat. Over the period considered, exports from Mali more than doubled and rose appreciably in Sudan, while Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria were again net importers.

Trade in goat meat, lamb and mutton was insignificant in Zimbabwe.

Trade in milk consists mostly of dried, condensed and evaporated milk imports. As suggested earlier, milk production in the study countries has been growing more slowly than demand. The result has been a substantial increase in imports (Table 10). In liquid milk equivalent (LME) terms, milk imports to the study countries increased by 10% a year between 1971-73 and 1983-85. The rapid growth in imports has been stimulated by the availability of subsidised skimmed milk powder from developed countries which has been increasingly used as food aid. Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria import more than 50% of the milk products they consume, Mali imports about 15% while the remaining three countries import between 5 and 10%.

Table 9. Average annual trade in sheep and goat meat by country, selected periods. ¹

	Sheep and goat meat trade ('000 t)
	Exports			Imports			Net exports or imports (-)
Country	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85	1971-73	1977-99	1983-85	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85
Côte d'Ivoire	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.5	5.2	3.8	-4.5	-5.2	-3.8
Ethiopia	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	0.2	0.4
Mali	2.1	2.8	5.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	2.8	5.2
Nigeria	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.3	3.5	3.1	-3.3	-3.5	-3.1
Sudan	3.8	5.4	7.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	3.8	5.4	7.0
Zimbabwe	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.0	-0.1	0.0
SSA	43.2	60.2	37.5	16.0	15.6	17.8	27.2	44.6	19.7

^1. Trade data for 1971-73 and 1977-79 are from FAO (1985), 1983-85 figures were obtained by adding up trade data For fresh sheep meat (ILCA, 1987b) and the meat equivalent of live sheep and goats traded (in terms of carcass weight).

Source: FAO (1985; 1986a; 1989); FAO trade yearbook (1985); ILCA (1987b).

Table 10. Average annual trade in milk by country, selected periods. ¹

	Milk trade ('000 t of LME)
	Exports			Imports			Net exports or imports (-)
Country	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85	1971-73	1977-79	1983-85
Côte d'Ivoire	2.5	1.2	1.2	55.4	121.7	129.5	-52.9	-120.5	-128.3
Ethiopia	0.1	0.1	0.0	6.4	26.4	114.0	-6.3	-26.3	-114.0
Mali	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.4	22.2	24.4	-10.4	-22.2	-24.4
Nigeria	0.0	0.0	0.0	224.5	588.3	371.8	-224.5	-588.3	-371.8
Sudan	0.0	0.0	0.0	16.8	34.5	93.0	-16.8	-34.5	-93.0
Zimbabwe	0.3	2.3	0.7	9.7	4.5	18.7	-9.4	-2.2	-18.0
SSA	38.5	29.2	3.7	751.2	1580.2	2014.0	-712.6	-1551.0	-2010.4

^1. Trade data on milk include fresh, dried, condensed and evaporated milk and are expressed in terms of liquid milk equivalent (LME) using FAO (1978) conversion factors, i.e. 1 kg fresh milk = 1 kg LME; 1 kg dried milk = 7.6 kg LME and 1 kg condensed/evaporated milk = 2 kg LME.

Source: FAO trade yearbook (various issues).

Policy implications

Although the output, consumption and trade trends presented above need to be interpreted with caution, their underlying message is clear: production of meat and milk in the study countries over the last 15 years has risen only slightly or has declined. The gap between production and consumption, which was very narrow at the beginning of the period, has widened significantly. As a result, there has been a growing tendency to import to meet demand, particularly for milk.

Domestic production has been unable to satisfy demand due to a variety of constraints, including environmental and technological problems. However, the incentive policies pursued by most governments have also contributed significantly (Schultz, 1978; World Bank, 1981; World Bank, 1983). Often the effects of these policies have run counter to the producers' interests, though such was not the intention. For example, policies that place ceilings on meat and milk prices at the producer and retail levels or impose export taxes have been blamed for inhibiting growth in production while subsidising domestic consumption.

The realization of expanded and sustainable meat and milk production has also not been made easy by the numerous goals pursued within the livestock subsector and the lack of agreement on trade-offs between policies. For example, rural dairy production is labour-intensive and the employment effects from its expansion can be substantial. For rural producers with relatively modest incomes, it can be reasonably argued on equity grounds that governments should consider protecting them from concessionary imports; whereas livestock policy goals, if they are formulated to provide "cheap" milk to urban consumers may lead to an altogether different set of policy recommendations.

Thus, understanding the interrelationships and conflicts between objectives and policies is a critical step towards designing and implementing more effective incentive regimes. The multiple objectives of pricing policies and the trade-offs inherent in the pursuance of such objectives are examined in detail in the next chapter.