2.1. General description
2.2. Pork production within LLM systems
2.3. Poultry meat and egg production within LLM systems
2.4. Classification of LLM systems
2.5. Trends, causes, motives
Compared with other livestock production systems, production technologies used in LLM systems are relatively high information and capital intensive. The ease with which these production technologies can be transferred across the various world regions, is one of the reasons explaining the worldwide occurrence of LLM systems. Throughout the world regions, a substantial variability in capital intensity can be found. Very sophisticated, automated, and thus capital intensive systems, tend to be used in the developed countries, responding to high labour costs. Variability of production within individual enterprises over time is low, as long as the management systems in place control exogenous factors correctly, i.e. disinfection, isolation from animals external to the system, effective quality control of feed inputs, etc.
LLM systems are frequently stratified, implying that different enterprises specialize in, for instance, the production of parent animals, the production of young animals or the fattening process. Compared with other livestock production systems, the species used in LLM systems have a short production cycle, and thus a high turnover. Therefore they have the capacity to rapidly adjust to changes in demand for products, or the supply of inputs. Consequently, stock numbers at a certain moment are poor indicators of the importance of LLM systems.
Products from LLM systems are almost exclusively geared to urban markets, frequently located close to the production base, though part is internationally traded. Products have to comply with standardization and other specific quality criteria, to be efficiently transported, processed and marketed. Many of these criteria are determined by the processing industries, rather than by the final consumers per se.
The large-scale nature of the systems and the heavy investments lead to systems with a high labour productivity, producing outputs for a large number of urban consumers, but generating employment for few people. However, while the employment effect is low at production level, forward linkages in processing, wholesaling and retailing, as well as backward linkages in inputs and services required, generate substantial additional employment.
LLM systems are particularly prominent in areas with competitive advantages, resulting from e.g. a well-developed infrastructure and knowhow. Thus, in general LLM systems occur in areas that have good access to cheap feedstuffs to produce concentrates at low cost and close to urban centres (e.g. Rotterdam, Antwerp, Hamburg, Le Havre, Manilla, etc.). The LLM systems in these areas take the highest advantages of the available infrastructure of the agribusiness complex. The various production stages, from production of concentrates to processing of animals and/or their products are increasingly seen as an integrated chain (Brouwer & Godeschalk, 1993), leading to high management and infrastructure requirements, that generate large economies of scale in LLM systems. This implies large herd/flock sizes, large volumes of waste and high animal health risks.
In many western countries, a considerable percentage of the population is becoming more and more concerned about the way animals are kept in LLM systems. Some means of housing are regarded as stressful to the animals and therefore unacceptable. Examples are the tethering of sows or the housing of laying hens in cages.
Almost exclusively hybrid, high producing breeds are used in LLM systems. Genetic material is widely traded internationally. The high capacity of traditional breeds to cope with the exogenous factors mentioned above, has been replaced by the ability of hybrid breeds to produce at higher efficiency levels in terms of desired outputs, provided that these external factors are controlled by management.
LLM systems are characterized by the ample use of concentrates, with high nutritive value, compounded mainly from cereals, oilseeds and their by-products. This feature is central to understanding the rapid growth of LLM systems worldwide. The high nutritive value makes transport of feeds feasible, thus allowing the expansion of production, according to market incentives. Thus, in LLM system, feed is to a large extent introduced from outside the farm system: feed import via international markets is an important characteristic. Consequently, decisions on feed use are separated from those on feed production and manure utilization. Bearing in mind the scope of this study, this results in an essential characteristic of LLM systems: they are very open systems in terms of the flow of nutrients.
LLM systems interact with other livestock production systems for shares in the urban markets through competition with traditional, land-based production. It must be kept in mind that poultry meat and pork are close substitutes for beef and mutton, thus also interacting with the ruminant systems. The demand for cereals created by LLM systems also competes with ruminant systems for land resources.
In literature usually four pork production systems are distinguished (e.g. Payne, 1990 and Eusebio, 1984): scavenging pig raising systems, backyard pig raising, pig raising in medium-sized pig units and large-scale pig raising. Scavenging pigs are pigs that are let loose day and night on a self-supporting feeding management system. Scavenging pigs exist mainly in tropical countries. The occurrence of backyard pig raising is also mainly restricted to the tropics, where a family may keep up to three pigs in the backyard. Pigs are kept in a simply constructed stable or tethered with a rope. The pigs are fed with kitchen leftovers with occasional supplements of rice bran or maize by-products. Numbers of pigs held in medium-sized pig units range from 20-50 head of all ages fed mostly on commercial feeds. Pig production in medium-sized pig units is often integrated with other farm activities, like fish production. Large-scale pig production involves large herds, ranging from 600 to 12,000 head at any one time, all housed in confinement. Only improved high-productive breeds and commercial feeds are used.
Only large-scale pig production is considered in this report1. Following the delineation of LLM system, it might be questioned whether urban backyard pig production systems should be included as well, because they are also nearly landless. We decided not to include urban backyard pig production because:
- the description and size assessment of LLM systems as given by Sere & Steinfeld (1995) does not seem to include it (see Annex 2). If urban backyard pigs were to be included, LLM system would be larger than assessed;- urban backyard pig production might meet the criterion of less than 10% of the total value of production from non-livestock farming activities, but the essential system characteristics and problems are completely different from the typical description of LLM system as given by Sere & Steinfeld (1995), except for aspects to do with their landlessness.
1 It is important to note that the other systems are of great importance in the tropics. Philippine statistics e.g. show that 82% of the total hog population is being raised by smallholders and backyard pig farmers (Sayoc, 1993).
The primary purpose of pig farming all over the world is the production of meat, including pork and bacon. The distribution of pigs over the world largely depends on factors of a physical or cultural/religious nature. In the arid zones of the world (Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of Australia), pig raising hardly occurs because of the large quantities of water required for pig raising. In countries with a predominantly Jewish or Muslim population, also only few pigs exist. Other reasons explaining non-significant pig stocks in certain countries include the existence of a general preference for other types of meat (especially ruminant meat) and the nomadic way of life of tribes in Africa, which is impossible to combine with pig raising.
The pig is omnivorous, and although in some respects competes with man for food, it is a very useful user of by-products and wastes from human food production and processing. Thus, pigs are most numerous where human food is cheap and plentiful, and/or where large quantities of by-products or offal are available. This explains why concentrated pig production is usually found in the densely populated areas in the world.
The world distribution of pork production within LLM systems is given in Table 2.1. Leaving aside the factors mentioned above that explain the distribution of pigs across the world, the distribution of LLM system is by definition strongly correlated with population density (with urbanization as criterion) and annual income per capita: Asia and the OECD countries together account for 83.2% of total pork production in LLM systems. In the OECD countries, the LLM system accounts for over half of the total pork production in that region.
Table 2.1: Distribution of pork production within LLM systems.1 Distribution of pork production within LLM systems (source: Sere & Steinfeld, 1995)
|
|
share of LLM system in total pork prod. per region (%) |
pork production in LLM systems |
annual growth rates per region (%) |
|
|
000MT |
%1) |
|||
|
Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) |
15.3 |
78 |
0.3 |
9.2 |
|
Asia |
29.0 |
8714 |
30.9 |
17.8 |
|
Central and South America (CSA) |
36.9 |
1121 |
4.0 |
0.3 |
|
West Asia and North Africa (WANA) |
25.3 |
1 |
0.0 |
-15.8 |
|
OECD Countries |
54.2 |
14720 |
52.3 |
1.3 |
|
Eastern Europe and CIS |
32.4 |
3486 |
12.4 |
1.7 |
|
Others |
31.9 |
43 |
0.2 |
2.5 |
|
WORLD |
39.3 |
28163 |
100.0 |
4.1 |
1) % of the total LLM system
The four largest producers of pork from LLM systems are China, the USA, the CIS and Germany; together they account for 57% of world pork production in LLM systems. In Asia, China is by far the most important producer. Other important Asian producers are the Philippines and South Korea. OECD countries with a large production in LLM systems are the USA Germany, Spain, France and the Netherlands.
From Table 2.1 it follows that the importance of LLM systems is increasing in all world regions, with the exception of the WANA (West Asia and North Africa) region.
The housing of pigs in LLM systems is chiefly aimed at creating optimal climatic conditions. The reason for this is that pigs are essentially non-sweating animals, having only a sparse coat of hair, and therefore very sensitive to changes in climatic environment. Depending on the development stage, pigs have an optimal ambient temperature at which they thrive best. For pigs weighing 32-65 kg this optimal ambient temperature is approximately 24 °C and for pigs weighing 75-118 kg this is approximately 15 °C. As for ambient temperature, pigs in LLM systems are very sensitive to e.g. humidity and draught.
Pigs in LLM systems are housed in confinement throughout the world. In order to meet the pig’s requirements with regard to climatic conditions, however, important differences in housing systems exist between the warmer, tropical regions and the temperate zones. Pigs in the tropical regions, particularly the older pigs, have to be protected from the heat. One of the main aspects of pig housing in the tropics is therefore the provision of proper ventilation and adequate shade: pigsheds in the tropics are open and roofed. Pigs are prevented from draught by e.g. curtains. Some stables are equipped with sprinkler installations to cool the pigs if needed; mechanical ventilation is not used much. Pigs in the temperate zones may have to be prevented from cold in winter and heat in summer. Therefore stables in the temperate zones are more or less isolated from the outside climate. If needed, stables are heated. The use of mechanical ventilation is necessary in closed stables, and therefore common practice in temperate zones.
Management practices in pig production may be divided into two broad phases. The first is the phase of gestation and lactation, extending from the breeding of the sow to weaning of the litter. Weaning generally takes place when the piglets are 4-6 weeks of age and weigh about 7-14 kg. The number of weaned piglets per sow per year varies between 14 (in developing countries) and 18 (in developed countries). The second phase is the growing-finishing stage. In this phase, pigs grow until final live weight, ranging from 80 to 110 kg, depending on the country. The age at final live weight is determined by final live weight itself and average daily weight gain and ranges between 160-190 days. Feed conversion ratio in the growing-finishing stage is strongly related to feed quality and ranges between 4.0-2.8 kg per kg.
For the manure management systems in use throughout the world regions, we refer to Chapter 3.
Poultry are kept in most areas of the world. There are fewer religious or social taboos associated with them than there are with pigs. Thus, poultry provides an acceptable form of animal protein to most people throughout the world. Only in certain parts of West Africa the consumption of eggs is discouraged or even prohibited for religious/cultural reasons (Smith, 1990). During the last decade, many developing countries have adopted intensive poultry production in order to meet the demand for animal protein. Intensively kept poultry is seen as a way of rapidly increasing animal protein supplies for rapidly growing urban populations: poultry are able to adapt to most areas of the world, have a low economic value, rapid generation and a high rate of productivity.
The world distribution of poultry meat and egg production within LLM systems is given in Tables 2.2 and 2.3. Therefore, accordance with the fewer existing taboos in poultry meat and egg production, it can be concluded that poultry meat and egg production is more evenly distributed over the world than pork production. Significant production regions are the OECD-countries, Asia, CSA (Central and South America), the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) and EE (Eastern European) countries. Also note that the share of LLM systems in total poultry meat and egg production is substantially higher than it is for pork production. Still, there are many similarities with pork production. Poultry meat and egg production within LLM systems is again fairly concentrated in OECD countries and Asia, together accounting for 70.7% (poultry meat) and 69.9% (eggs) of total production within LLM systems. The four largest producers of poultry meat are the USA, China, Brazil and the CIS, producing 53.3% of total poultry meat production within LLM systems. The four largest egg producing countries are China, the USA, the CIS and Japan, accounting for 55.5% of total egg production within LLM systems. Other important poultry meat and egg producing countries are Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines in Asia; Mexico, Argentina and Venezuela in Central and South America; France and the UK in the OECD region; and Hungary and Poland in Eastern Europe. Poultry meat and egg production in LLM systems is increasing in all world regions.
Poultry in LLM systems are housed in confinement. Like for pigs, the housing of poultry is aimed at creating optimal climatic conditions, particularly with regard to ambient temperature and day-length. There are many types of housing for laying hens in use, including battery cages, slatted floor housing and deep litter housing. Broilers are almost always housed on litter. The term broiler is applied to chicks that have especially been bred for rapid growth. On average they will reach a weight of 2 kg, having consumed only 2 kg of feed for each kg of live weight gain. Feed conversion ranges between 1.8 and 2.2 kg per kg. Broiler strains are based on crosses between Cornish White, New Hampshire and White Plymouth Rock. The main guiding principle of broiler production is the all-in/all-out principle, so that only birds of the same age are kept on the same site. The birds can be reared to slaughter weight within eight weeks. About two weeks are required between each batch, so approximately five batches can be reared in each house each year. On modern farms, broilers are kept in houses holding between 10,000 and 20,000 birds. In temperate zones, broilers are kept in windowless houses with mechanical ventilation.
Table 2.2: Distribution of poultry meat production within LLM systems.2 Distribution of poultry meat production within LLM systems (source: Sere & Steinfeld, 1995)
|
|
share of LLM systems in total poultry meat prod. per region (%) |
poultry meat prod. in LLM systems |
annual growth rates per region (%) |
|
|
000 MT |
%1) |
|||
|
SSA |
29.2 |
249 |
0.8 |
6.7 |
|
ASIA |
49.9 |
4075 |
12.7 |
17.3 |
|
CSA |
75.2 |
4707 |
14.7 |
6.6 |
|
WANA |
60.7 |
1169 |
3.7 |
6.7 |
|
OECD |
87.6 |
18546 |
58.0 |
3.8 |
|
CIS and EE |
65.3 |
2802 |
8.8 |
1.9 |
|
OTHERS |
72.5 |
419 |
1.3 |
3.1 |
|
WORLD |
73.9 |
31967 |
100.0 |
5.1 |
1) % of total LLM system
Climatic regulation in temperate zones is aimed at keeping young birds warm enough and protecting them from excess heat when they are older. Optimum temperature for broilers is between 20-25°C. In tropical zones open-sided houses are used more often. The provision of artificial light will encourage birds to consume more feed and therefore grow faster.
The life-cycle of laying hens may be divided into two phases: a growing phase and a productive phase. The growing phase lasts about 140 days, in which hens reach a weight of about 1300-1600 grams having consumed some 6-8 kg of feed. The productive phase starts at an age of about 140 days and lasts for 420 days (1.15 years). Selection and cross-breeding techniques have resulted in productive laying hens producing up to 17 kg of eggs per year. Such a high production is mainly found in developed countries. In developing countries, egg production in LLM systems amounts to some 14 kg per hen per year. Breeds used for egg production are based on the White Leghorn. In order to stimulate egg production, the length of the day is artificially set at 16-18 hours. Egg production of laying hens fed high quality feeds is not affected at ambient temperatures as high as 32 °C. With few exceptions it is normal practice to offer food ad libitum to laying hens. Feed conversion ratio ranges between 2.4-2.7 kg per kg of eggs.
Table 2.3: Distribution of poultry egg production within LLM systems.3 Distribution of poultry egg production within LLM systems (source: Sere & Steinfeld, 1995)
|
|
share of LLM systems in total poultry egg production per region (%) |
Poultry egg prod. in LLM systems |
annual growth rates per region (%) |
|
|
000 MT |
%1) |
|||
|
SSA |
30.5 |
246 |
0.9 |
6.2 |
|
ASIA |
52.7 |
7680 |
28.4 |
18.5 |
|
CSA |
73.4 |
2896 |
10.7 |
4.8 |
|
WANA |
59.6 |
948 |
3.5 |
5.9 |
|
OECD |
87.9 |
11231 |
41.5 |
0.2 |
|
CIS and EE |
65.4 |
3831 |
14.2 |
1.1 |
|
OTHERS |
71.9 |
239 |
0.9 |
2.8 |
|
WORLD |
67.9 |
27071 |
100.0 |
3.8 |
1) % of the total LLM system
To assess the environmental impact of LLM systems, it is necessary to classify the various LLM systems according to intensive and semi-intensive systems. For landless systems, useful classification factors are mainly scale of production (number of LU/production unit), intensity (number of production units/km2, number of LU/km2) and integration with the overall farming system (origin of feed, distance production - consumption site, fate of manure). However, applying these classification factors is very complex. Chiefly because the use of each classification factor separately does not indicate the environmental impact at all; more classification factors have to be considered at the same time as will be illustrated below.
A high number of LU/production unit as such does not necessarily coincide with a large impact on the environment. Addition of at least the intensity criterium (number of production units/km2, number of LU/km2) is necessary. When classifying LLM systems, due consideration should be given to the hierarchical level, e.g. the national level or the regional level (i.e. sub-national level). In the whole of France, there are 145,000 pig farms, with an average of 83 pigs. To assess the environmental impact of the French pig stock, however, it is important to know that the pig stock is mainly concentrated in Brittany. In this region some 10,000 pig farms (only 7% of all pig farms) keep over 50% of the total French pig stock, with on average 650 pigs per farm (Anonymous, 1993a). This clearly demonstrates that data on classification factors at national level may differ enormously from data on classification factors at regional level, and may obscure the classification adopted if only one hierarchical level is considered. Therefore classification factors should include more than one hierarchical level at the least. For the integration of animal production with the overall farming system, important differences exist between countries with, at first glance, a more or less comparable intensity of pig and poultry production.
For example, in an intensive production region like the Netherlands (with animal density of 7.1 pigs*ha-1 UAA and 48.7 chickens*ha-1 UAA in 1987), farms in general have access to only a relatively small area of land and therefore have limited possibilities to spread their manure. The manure surplus at farm level must be transported over quite some distance (some 100 km) to areas in the northern or western parts of the country where a so-called “shortage” of manure exists. In another intensive production area, Brittany (with animal density of 3.2 pigs*ha-1 UAA1 and 48.3 chickens*ha-1 UAA in 1987), the manure application opportunities are such that manure generally need not be transported over distances of more than 15 km. Both countries also differ in the share of country produced grains incorporated in animal feeds, which is significantly higher in France than in the Netherlands: 60% in France versus only 15% in the Netherlands. In Denmark, the integration of pork production in the overall farming system is even greater. Denmark has a relatively large number of mixed farms, which combine crop farming with pig farming. These farms grow part of their own feed in the form of grains which makes it not only unclear whether these farms can be categorized as belonging to LLM systems, it becomes obvious that in Denmark the manure can be applied in the immediate surroundings.
1 UUA = Utilized agricultural area
From the above it can be concluded that classification of LLM systems in order to assess the environmental impact is a complex business. The main reason for this is that values of the classification factors may differ enormously among countries, even if the animal production structures of these countries seem comparable (compare e.g. the Netherlands and France). It is clear that in each case (i.e. for each country) the various classification factors have to be considered simultaneously, at several hierarchical levels. Relevant classification factors per country, region, and farm are given in Table 2.4.
Table 2.4: Relevant classification factors for the country, region and farm level.4 Relevant classification factors for the country, region and farm level
|
country |
region |
farm |
|
- feed balance |
- LU/km2 |
- use of farm produced feed |
From Tables 2.1 through 2.3 it can be concluded that LLM systems are on the increase in all world regions, although the growth rates differ substantially. The determinants are past and future developments in meat concentrates price ratios, price levels of farmlands, price levels of energy carriers, infrastructure, knowledge level and demand for products from LLM system. The world region with highest growth rates for all LLM-subsystems is Asia. Asia shows all the characteristics related to the expansion of LLM systems: large, still considerably growing populations, rapid economic growth, industrialization, urbanization and increases in annual per capita income. Consumption of products from LLM systems is rapidly increasing in countries like China, Japan, Thailand and Taiwan. In the recent past in Central and South America, mainly poultry meat has showed increased consumption: an annual rate of 9% over 1968-1984 (Lynam, 1989, cited by Hendy et al., 1995). The CIS and EE has recently shown reduction in livestock production, which is not reflected in Tables 2.1 to 2.3. This decrease is related to the political and economic turnaround in these countries. The consequences of this turnaround for pork production in Hungary are shown in Box 1. Although the data mentioned in box 1 is on the total pork production, the trends will be valid for LLM system as well. The region may be expected to recover from the recent decline in production and demand, depending on the successfulness of the adaptation to a market economy and a growth in prosperity. FAO expectations are that the per capita consumption may return to pre-reform levels by 2010 (Alexandratos, 1990). Contraction of LLM systems is currently also taking place in countries with macro-economic problems (related to e.g. inflation) like Nigeria and Mexico.
|
The number of pigs held in Hungary amounted to 8.687.000 head
in 1987. During the late eighties the number decreased significantly to only
7.660.000 pigs in 1990, mainly due to a decrease in the profitability of pig
husbandry. Profitability decreased as a consequence of a strong price increase
of inputs like feed and energy. Average price increase of important feedstuffs
was as high as 40% in less than one year, while at the same time inland pork
consumption decreased by 17%, due to the poor income situation of consumers.
Consequently, market saturation developed causing a 50% decline in the pork
price. (Source: Berkum & Rutten, 1992.) |
Some time after the Second World War, many developed countries showed a strong trend towards an intensification of agriculture. This intensification was encouraged by governments, strongly stimulating technological innovations in the biological and the mechanical field. The aims of these innovations were to increase the technical and economic efficiency of the inputs used and to substitute the more expensive inputs with cheaper ones (e.g. substitution of labour by machines). Gradually this led to crucial changes in price ratios between products and their inputs and between the products and inputs themselves. The most important are (Weijden et al. 1984):
- a decrease in real prices of agricultural products, which forced more and more farmers to stop their activities in agriculture, while the ones that continued had to intensify, enlarge the scale of their farms, save costs and adopt new technologies;- a decrease in real prices of important inputs like energy, artificial fertilizer and concentrates, which stimulated the use of these inputs and explains the rapid growth of agricultural systems dependent on these inputs (including the LLM systems); and
- a relatively strong increase in labour costs compared with other cost and product prices. This increase was a strong incentive for reorganization and mechanization, leading to strongly reduced employment in agriculture.
More specifically for livestock systems, the following combination of factors contributed to an increase in farm animals in Europe (Wadman et al., 1987):
- a strongly increased use of concentrates;
- developments in disease control of large groups of animals;
- large increase in labour productivity;
- increase in prosperity, which increased the demand for meat and dairy products; and
- the expansion of markets (e.g. Common Market in Europe).
The specialization and expansion of intensive farming was considerably abetted by the powerful co-operative and private agro-food complexes, which supply animal feed and produce meat products (OECD, 1989). It should be noted that the expansion of intensive farming is only indirectly connected with agricultural policies, since there is little direct policy assistance for pork and poultry production in developed countries. Agricultural policies and related tariff arrangements, however, do have an effect on the price of feed inputs, the general demand for meat products, and hence, the nature, location and intensity of intensive animal husbandry.
Accompanying the increase in livestock numbers were changes in the perception of the value of animal manure. This change in perception was related to high labour costs and the introduction of mineral fertilizers. The saving of nutrients was no longer the main argument for storing animal manure. Relatively labour intensive separate collection of the liquid and solid fractions of animal manure made way for the collection of slurry (Wadman et al., 1987). These slurry systems allowed high livestock densities and the use of concentrates. With increasing livestock densities, the production of animal feeds and the application of animal manure were increasingly separated.
One could generally state that developments having taken place in the fifties and sixties in the developed world, are now taking place in many developing countries, but at a much higher pace. These developments are often strongly stimulated by governments, via agricultural structure, market and price policies. For example, India has a tax holiday for income generated in poultry production, being a major stimulus for the expansion of poultry production in the country. In addition, special credit lines are implemented for poultry development projects (Bessei, 1993; see also e.g. Smith, 1990; Zanders, 1994). The most important determinant for the expansion of LLM systems in developing countries is the rapid economic growth. For example in China, astounding economic growth during the latter half of the eighties and into the early nineties led to massive employment opportunities in non-agricultural sectors. As a result, family units which raised pigs as a complementary sideline operation dropped out of production. Simultaneously, the size and number of individual operations grew (Simpson et al., 1994). This economic growth induces changes in the other determining factors, all towards stimulating LLM systems. Accompanying general economic growth are improved knowledge level and infrastructure, increased price levels of labour and farmlands (due to increasing urbanization and industrialization, particularly around cities), and reduced price levels of energy carriers and concentrates.
Three phases of transition in the food supply-demand balance seem relevant and affect the demand for products from LLM systems, (Mellor & Johnston 1987):
1) rough parity of domestic supply and demand with relatively constant food prices;2) rapid growth in demand that generally exceeds growth in domestic supply, resulting in increasing food prices or rapid growth of net imports;
3) cessation of demand growth, while production growth is maintained at a high level, resulting in a downward trend in food prices or rapid growth in net exports.
The second phase typifies many developing countries, particularly those in East Asia, as they first accelerate general economic growth. When individual incomes rise, wage-earners typically spend 70-90% of their additional income on food. The second phase is thus characterized by a growing demand for livestock products. Countries and regions showing high annual growth rates for LLM system may be considered to be in this second phase. Most OECD countries are in the third phase.
Demand for products from LLM systems is largely related to population density, urbanization and annual per capita income. Global expectations for developments in population density and annual per capita income are given by Hendy et al. (1995). The overall picture is that in all developing countries, demand for products from LLM systems is expected to grow rapidly, because of population growth and annual per capita income growth. No substantial increases in demand are expected in the OECD countries.
The fact that these developments have already been taking place for quite some time, can be illustrated on the basis of recent changes in per capita pork consumption. Between 1985 and 1992 the world average annual per capita pork consumption increased 8% to 13 kg in 1992. Areas with a relatively low per capita consumption recorded the highest increases, as a result of increasing prosperity. In Asia, for example, per capita consumption increased by 32% and in Africa by 13%. In regions that had already reached high levels of prosperity, the increase in per capita consumption was far more modest: North and Central America 6% and Europe 2%. In fact, Europe records a 3.5% decrease in the period 1990-1992. This continent is clearly showing signs of market saturation (Anonymous, 1993a).
From the above, it can be concluded that production growth will predominantly take place in the developing countries. In principle, three primary sources of growth of supply can be distinguished:
1) expansion of livestock numbers;2) increased intensity of range and pasture utilization and increased use of feed concentrates and agricultural by-products; and
3) higher output of meat, milk or eggs per animal through improved management, breeds and technologies.
Increases in livestock numbers are the dominant sources of growth in developing countries, and this situation is expected to continue (Alexandratos, 1988). However, there are many countries with a lack of land and where areas animal production growth is expected to come from increased output per animal in intensive or semi-intensive, thus more landless production systems, using supplementary feeds.
