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Table A.2. Comparison between probit and spatial probit in the headcount index and in the percentage of poor people at county level, rural sample

County

Total poor

Total pop.

% poor

Difference [((b-a)/b)*100]

Bigman (a)

Spatial p. (b)

Bigman (a)

Spatial p. (b)

Cuenca

74 407

71 075

136 047

54.7

52.2

-4.687

Giron

10 141

10 088

13 191

76.9

76.5

-0.525

Gualaceo

22 554

22 576

27 014

83.5

83.6

0.101

Nabon

11 716

11 768

14 606

80.2

80.6

0.436

Paute

16 207

16 327

21 887

74.0

74.6

0.736

Pucara

14 586

14 626

16 626

87.7

88.0

0.272

San Fernando

3 324

3 342

4 298

77.3

77.8

0.526

Santa Isabel

14 242

14 181

17 160

83.0

82.6

-0.434

Sigsig

20 566

20 619

25 103

81.9

82.1

0.258

Oña

2 461

2 473

3 244

75.9

76.2

0.503

Chordeleg

7 475

7 467

9 683

77.2

77.1

-0.111

El Pan

2 672

2 653

3 690

72.4

71.9

-0.750

Sevilla De Oro

4 928

4 902

6 553

75.2

74.8

-0.529

Guachapala

2 518

2 543

3 435

73.3

74.0

1.001

Guaranda

43 786

44 055

50 511

86.7

87.2

0.611

Chillanes

15 785

15 954

20 477

77.1

77.9

1.060

Chimbo

9 699

9 700

15 602

62.2

62.2

0.005

Echeandia

6 092

6 105

9 821

62.0

62.2

0.216

San Miguel

18 048

18 004

28 044

64.4

64.2

-0.242

Caluma

6 095

5 998

9 828

62.0

61.0

-1.603

Las Naves

3 777

3 814

5 075

74.4

75.2

0.974

Azogues

34 017

34 051

40 510

84.0

84.1

0.098

Biblian

16 665

16 719

22 286

74.8

75.0

0.323

Cañar

40 194

40 200

44 080

91.2

91.2

0.015

La Troncal

7 628

7 468

9 810

77.8

76.1

-2.141

El Tambo

6 116

6 152

6 974

87.7

88.2

0.582

Deleg

5 431

5 485

7 298

74.4

75.2

0.991

Tulcan

21 574

21 352

26 089

82.7

81.8

-1.038

Bolivar (De Carchi)

12 471

12 442

15 157

82.3

82.1

-0.235

Espejo

9 541

9 469

13 188

72.3

71.8

-0.767

Mira

11 484

11 446

14 040

81.8

81.5

-0.331

Montufar

15 445

15 409

17 481

88.4

88.1

-0.230

San Pedro De Huaca

5 109

5 058

6 485

78.8

78.0

-1.020

Latacunga

63 180

62 597

77 721

81.3

80.5

-0.931

La Mana

9 356

9 271

12 060

77.6

76.9

-0.916

Pangua

13 058

13 149

16 814

77.7

78.2

0.688

Pujili

34 069

34 188

39 038

87.3

87.6

0.348

Salcedo

29 579

29 414

37 740

78.4

77.9

-0.560

Saquisili

9 893

9 857

12 829

77.1

76.8

-0.375

Sigchos

16 943

17 010

18 453

91.8

92.2

0.389

Riobamba

53 423

53 242

69 274

77.1

76.9

-0.340

Alausi

31 583

31 734

33 910

93.1

93.6

0.474

Colta

41 615

42 052

47 568

87.5

88.4

1.038

Chambo

7 636

7 656

9 463

80.7

80.9

0.268

Chunchi

11 660

11 646

13 490

86.4

86.3

-0.119

Guamote

26 917

27 013

28 058

95.9

96.3

0.355

Guano

25 241

25 173

30 522

82.7

82.5

-0.272

Pallatanga

7 864

7 919

9 482

82.9

83.5

0.699

Penipe

5 788

5 730

7 078

81.8

81.0

-1.005

Cumanda

5 711

5 785

7 097

80.5

81.5

1.282

Machala

7 958

7 648

13 410

59.3

57.0

-4.058

Arenillas

4 866

4 754

6 728

72.3

70.7

-2.369

Atahualpa

3 728

3 626

6 142

60.7

59.0

-2.803

Balsas

2 651

2 587

4 066

65.2

63.6

-2.488

Chilla

2 055

2 033

2 767

74.3

73.5

-1.083

El Guabo

14 128

13 888

16 955

83.3

81.9

-1.732

Huaquillas

137

138

174

79.0

79.0

0.085

Marcabeli

3 281

3 254

4 889

67.1

66.6

-0.836

Pasaje

12 641

12 468

16 557

76.3

75.3

-1.391

Piñas

7 954

7 765

11 681

68.1

66.5

-2.429

Portovelo

3 541

3 467

4 573

77.4

75.8

-2.131

Santa Rosa

9 665

9 376

14 465

66.8

64.8

-3.085

Zaruma

12 566

12 331

16 455

76.4

74.9

-1.900

Las Lajas

3 943

3 883

4 866

81.0

79.8

-1.529

Esmeraldas

16 344

16 308

22 314

73.2

73.1

-0.218

Eloy Alfaro

22 267

22 237

25 389

87.7

87.6

-0.135

Muisne

18 278

18 095

22 537

81.1

80.3

-1.007

Quininde

45 264

44 412

53 254

85.0

83.4

-1.917

San Lorenzo

9 993

9 977

11 322

88.3

88.1

-0.157

Atacames

15 801

15 980

18 014

87.7

88.7

1.122

Rio Verde

16 317

16 211

19 911

81.9

81.4

-0.649

Guayaquil

4 623

4 548

34 618

13.4

13.1

-1.636

Alfredo Baquerizo Moreno

8 224

8 308

10 274

80.0

80.9

1.014

Balao

4 777

4 738

5 966

80.1

79.4

-0.814

Balzar

16 107

16 293

21 082

76.4

77.3

1.138

Colimes

15 342

15 190

19 232

79.8

79.0

-1.001

Daule

31 395

31 159

39 944

78.6

78.0

-0.756

Duran

2 078

2 074

2 837

73.2

73.1

-0.211

El Empalme

23 407

23 385

31 989

73.2

73.1

-0.095

El Triunfo

5 600

5 464

7 240

77.3

75.5

-2.475

Milagro

15 755

15 285

22 760

69.2

67.2

-3.074

Naranjal

23 138

22 843

23 468

98.6

97.3

-1.294

Naranjito

5 769

5 651

8 487

68.0

66.6

-2.095

Palestina

4 657

4 638

5 883

79.2

78.8

-0.404

Pedro Carbo

9 090

9 088

11 648

78.0

78.0

-0.030

Salinas

4 086

4 004

5 302

77.1

75.5

-2.047

Samborondon

12 897

12 920

16 494

78.2

78.3

0.175

Santa Elena

21 143

21 046

24 338

86.9

86.5

-0.459

Santa Lucia

17 820

17 612

20 812

85.6

84.6

-1.176

Urbina Jado

33 197

33 368

36 606

90.7

91.2

0.512

Yaguachi

17 083

17 031

23 078

74.0

73.8

-0.307

Playas

1 302

1 266

1 946

66.9

65.1

-2.837

Simon Bolivar

13 632

13 591

17 240

79.1

78.8

-0.303

Coronel Marcelino Maridueña

2 984

2 906

4 026

74.1

72.2

-2.695

Lomas De Sargentillo

1 016

1 010

1 205

84.3

83.8

-0.607

Nobol (Piedrahita)

7 928

7 793

10 524

75.3

74.1

-1.732

General Antonio Elizalde (Bucay)

1 280

1 281

1 890

67.7

67.8

0.046

Isidro Ayora

4 705

4 646

5 797

81.2

80.1

-1.265

Ibarra

32 791

32 638

38 502

85.2

84.8

-0.466

Antonio Ante

11 013

11 033

13 345

82.5

82.7

0.182

Cotacachi

24 245

24 068

27 199

89.1

88.5

-0.735

Otavalo

30 603

30 547

34 738

88.1

87.9

-0.184

Pimampiro

14 035

14 020

15 359

91.4

91.3

-0.111

San Miguel De Urcuqui

11 263

11 061

13 736

82.0

80.5

-1.825

Loja

41 273

40 825

50 188

82.2

81.3

-1.099

Calvas

16 884

16 895

19 292

87.5

87.6

0.066

Catamayo

7 475

7 441

8 899

84.0

83.6

-0.466

Celica

11 264

11 325

14 329

78.6

79.0

0.538

Chaguarpamba

8 111

8 179

9 850

82.3

83.0

0.838

Espindola

15 830

15 815

18 191

87.0

86.9

-0.095

Gonzanama

13 908

13 822

17 276

80.5

80.0

-0.625

Macara

6 044

6 085

7 249

83.4

83.9

0.674

Paltas

19 594

19 567

23 050

85.0

84.9

-0.136

Puyango

13 298

13 309

16 804

79.1

79.2

0.083

Saraguro

22 972

23 002

26 842

85.6

85.7

0.131

Sozoranga

8 338

8 330

9 729

85.7

85.6

-0.085

Zapotillo

7 830

7 931

10 234

76.5

77.5

1.269

Pindal

6 417

6 470

7 457

86.1

86.8

0.820

Quilanga

4 445

4 463

5 553

80.0

80.4

0.409

Olmedo

4 380

4 409

5 146

85.1

85.7

0.658

Babahoyo

36 858

36 153

48 740

75.6

74.2

-1.949

Baba

22 580

22 500

29 406

76.8

76.5

-0.357

Montalvo

7 868

7 806

11 568

68.0

67.5

-0.791

Pueblo Viejo

19 168

19 364

22 662

84.6

85.4

1.013

Quevedo

10 024

9 902

15 869

63.2

62.4

-1.225

Urdaneta

11 066

10 813

16 719

66.2

64.7

-2.332

Ventanas

27 290

27 362

35 277

77.4

77.6

0.264

Vinces

31 278

31 735

36 722

85.2

86.4

1.439

Palenque

15 977

16 215

18 242

87.6

88.9

1.471

Buena Fe

9 574

9 442

13 892

68.9

68.0

-1.398

Valencia

15 265

15 215

19 357

78.9

78.6

-0.332

Mocache

20 916

21 207

26 380

79.3

80.4

1.372

Portoviejo

37 511

36 237

62 368

60.1

58.1

-3.515

Bolivar (De Manabi)

17 646

17 387

25 458

69.3

68.3

-1.491

Chone

51 870

50 623

73 374

70.7

69.0

-2.464

El Carmen

20 765

20 518

28 779

72.2

71.3

-1.202

Flavio Alfaro

16 385

16 244

23 613

69.4

68.8

-0.868

Jipijapa

30 536

30 272

36 062

84.7

83.9

-0.873

Junin

11 177

11 102

18 243

61.3

60.9

-0.668

Manta

3 617

3 609

4 701

76.9

76.8

-0.214

Montecristi

5 609

5 598

7 211

77.8

77.6

-0.203

Pajan

30 839

30 808

36 957

83.4

83.4

-0.099

Pichincha

21 760

21 474

28 827

75.5

74.5

-1.334

Rocafuerte

13 013

12 891

17 177

75.8

75.0

-0.952

Santa Ana

30 758

30 230

42 796

71.9

70.6

-1.745

Sucre

18 546

18 392

27 685

67.0

66.4

-0.837

Tosagua

17 886

17 648

24 366

73.4

72.4

-1.350

24 De Mayo

23 902

23 969

34 026

70.2

70.4

0.279

Pedernales

19 651

19 364

25 228

77.9

76.8

-1.484

Olmedo

7 402

7 365

10 166

72.8

72.4

-0.505

Puerto Lopez

5 052

5 037

5 587

90.4

90.2

-0.293

Jama

7 404

7 376

10 039

73.8

73.5

-0.380

Jaramijo

239

239

298

80.2

80.1

-0.088

Morona

10 197

10 059

12 316

82.8

81.7

-1.373

Gualaquiza

8 254

8 039

12 518

65.9

64.2

-2.679

Limon

5 995

5 949

8 813

68.0

67.5

-0.770

Palanda

3 848

3 764

5 525

69.7

68.1

-2.232

Santiago

6 006

5 906

8 319

72.2

71.0

-1.685

Sucua

7 231

7 033

10 996

65.8

64.0

-2.817

Huamboya

2 976

2 949

3 922

75.9

75.2

-0.916

San Juan Bosco

2 336

2 316

3 249

71.9

71.3

-0.859

Taisha

5 664

5 673

6 666

85.0

85.1

0.146

Logroño

3 150

3 114

3 646

86.4

85.4

-1.143

Tena

20 345

20 140

25 464

79.9

79.1

-1.019

Archidona

11 194

11 027

13 650

82.0

80.8

-1.509

El Chaco

3 077

2 992

4 445

69.2

67.3

-2.863

Quijos

2 329

2 251

3 847

60.5

58.5

-3.464

Carlos Julio Arosemena Tola

1 437

1 428

2 037

70.5

70.1

-0.598

Pastaza

10 469

10 488

15 342

68.2

68.4

0.186

Mera

3 427

3 310

5 947

57.6

55.7

-3.557

Santa Clara

1 631

1 620

2 233

73.0

72.5

-0.712

Arajuno

3 180

3 183

3 594

88.5

88.6

0.085

Quito

6 315

3 760

169 507

3.7

2.2

-67.958

Cayambe

20 858

20 342

29 848

69.9

68.2

-2.537

Mejia

19 876

18 841

37 308

53.3

50.5

-5.499

Pedro Moncayo

7 377

7 047

15 718

46.9

44.8

-4.686

Rumiñahui

4 312

4 208

8 620

50.0

48.8

-2.468

Sto Domingo De Los Colorados

35 840

33 865

68 261

52.5

49.6

-5.831

San Miguel De Los Bancos

10 449

10 442

16 928

61.7

61.7

-0.062

Pedro Vicente Maldonado

4 669

4 511

7 681

60.8

58.7

-3.494

Puerto Quito

10 086

9 351

13 775

73.2

67.9

-7.860

Ambato

60 766

59 913

103 624

58.6

57.8

-1.423

Baños

4 059

3 942

5 915

68.6

66.6

-2.961

Cevallos

3 452

3 317

5 964

57.9

55.6

-4.074

Mocha

4 329

4 212

6 368

68.0

66.2

-2.776

Patate

5 932

5 756

10 292

57.6

55.9

-3.072

Quero

11 086

10 812

15 997

69.3

67.6

-2.531

Pelileo

20 153

19 495

31 665

63.6

61.6

-3.376

Pillaro

18 096

17 724

28 223

64.1

62.8

-2.099

Tisaleo

6 599

6 452

9 165

72.0

70.4

-2.270

Zamora

10 147

9 967

13 695

74.1

72.8

-1.805

Chinchipe

5 243

5 218

6 989

75.0

74.7

-0.483

Nangaritza

3 137

3 111

4 316

72.7

72.1

-0.827

Yacuambi

2 751

2 766

3 448

79.8

80.2

0.542

Yantzaza

7 775

7 669

11 856

65.6

64.7

-1.385

El Pangui

4 295

4 274

6 054

70.9

70.6

-0.509

Centinela Del Condor

4 504

4 450

6 331

71.1

70.3

-1.199

Palanda

4 513

4 483

5 430

83.1

82.6

-0.669

Lago Agrio

20 257

20 015

25 588

79.2

78.2

-1.208

Gonzalo Pizarro

3 290

3 206

4 472

73.6

71.7

-2.615

Putumayo

4 145

4 122

4 794

86.5

86.0

-0.548

Shushufindi

14 736

14 462

18 977

77.7

76.2

-1.899

Sucumbios

2 090

2 049

2 441

85.6

84.0

-2.004

Cascales

3 719

3 644

5 014

74.2

72.7

-2.067

Cuyabeno

2 121

2 098

2 501

84.8

83.9

-1.061

Orellana

9 075

9 055

11 369

79.8

79.6

-0.223

Aguarico

2 733

2 738

3 150

86.8

86.9

0.196

La Joya De Los Sachas

12 571

12 458

16 193

77.6

76.9

-0.911

Loreto

6 915

6 897

7 811

88.5

88.3

-0.251

Total

2 875 141

2 847 776

3 975 625

72.3

71.6

-0.977

Figure A.2. Percentage of poor people per county, rural sample

Figure A.3. Comparison between probit method and spatial probit at county level, rural sample


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