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Table A.3. Comparison between probit and spatial probit in the headcount index and in the percentage of poor people at county level, urban sample

County

Total poor

Total pop.

% poor

Difference [((b-a)/b)*100]

Bigman (a)

Spatial p. (b)

Bigman (a)

Spatial p. (b)

Cuenca

23 672

26 660

194 981

12.1

13.7

11.208

Gualaceo

4 111

4 393

8 572

48.0

51.2

6.423

Guaranda

4 566

5 029

15 730

29.0

32.0

9.198

Azogues

7 830

8 462

21 060

37.2

40.2

7.468

Cañar

6 412

6 810

11 179

57.4

60.9

5.851

La Troncal

14 510

14 944

22 730

63.8

65.7

2.905

Tulcan

16 040

17 245

37 069

43.3

46.5

6.993

Montufar

5 849

6 276

11 973

48.9

52.4

6.804

Latacunga

11 880

12 533

39 882

29.8

31.4

5.204

La Mana

5 077

5 293

8 900

57.0

59.5

4.074

Pujili

1 274

1 366

5 305

24.0

25.7

6.704

Salcedo

2 220

2 394

7 582

29.3

31.6

7.249

Riobamba

19 657

21 753

94 505

20.8

23.0

9.635

Alausi

2 526

2 739

5 399

46.8

50.7

7.793

Guano

3 251

3 480

6 584

49.4

52.9

6.584

Machala

41 533

42 799

144 197

28.8

29.7

2.959

Arenillas

4 836

5 055

11 586

41.7

43.6

4.347

El Guabo

5 743

5 929

11 103

51.7

53.4

3.151

Huaquillas

17 349

17 848

27 632

62.8

64.6

2.791

Pasaje

16 024

17 069

34 849

46.0

49.0

6.124

Piñas

3 732

3 958

10 162

36.7

38.9

5.718

Portovelo

2 271

2 371

5 684

40.0

41.7

4.242

Santa Rosa

16 261

17 149

36 387

44.7

47.1

5.181

Zaruma

2 298

2 472

7 397

31.1

33.4

7.020

Esmeraldas

41 221

45 619

112 831

36.5

40.4

9.640

Quininde

11 871

12 096

18 647

63.7

64.9

1.865

San Lorenzo

8 050

8 375

11 230

71.7

74.6

3.881

Guayaquil

333 578

493 451

1 535 393

21.7

32.1

32.399

Alfredo Baquerizo Moreno

4 009

4 303

5 979

67.1

72.0

6.832

Balao

4 792

4 992

6 548

73.2

76.2

4.002

Balzar

14 416

15 517

22 883

63.0

67.8

7.096

Daule

13 076

13 829

25 590

51.1

54.0

5.446

Duran

29 086

32 004

82 359

35.3

38.9

9.119

El Empalme

14 791

15 807

26 362

56.1

60.0

6.433

El Triunfo

10 275

10 601

17 311

59.4

61.2

3.072

Milagro

39 938

42 203

93 637

42.7

45.1

5.365

Naranjal

15 084

14 745

15 998

94.3

92.2

-2.302

Naranjito

7 688

8 155

17 121

44.9

47.6

5.724

Palestina

3 012

3 191

5 308

56.7

60.1

5.628

Pedro Carbo

13 037

13 715

19 980

65.3

68.6

4.940

Salinas

12 425

13 037

27 132

45.8

48.1

4.694

Samborondon

6 051

6 709

17 471

34.6

38.4

9.808

Santa Elena

38 401

40 159

59 672

64.4

67.3

4.377

Santa Lucia

4 186

4 310

6 530

64.1

66.0

2.878

Urbina Jado

5 265

5 536

7 206

73.1

76.8

4.890

Yaguachi

9 486

10 061

16 245

58.4

61.9

5.714

Playas

11 167

11 636

19 544

57.1

59.5

4.032

Lomas De Sargentillo

6 336

6 569

9 205

68.8

71.4

3.546

La Libertad

31 389

32 763

53 108

59.1

61.7

4.193

General Antonio Elizalde (Bucay)

2 172

2 373

5 078

42.8

46.7

8.499

Ibarra

35 140

37 695

80 991

43.4

46.5

6.779

Antonio Ante

7 146

7 769

14 030

50.9

55.4

8.028

Cotacachi

2 669

2 787

6 051

44.1

46.1

4.217

Otavalo

9 542

9 948

21 548

44.3

46.2

4.076

Loja

25 907

27 755

94 305

27.5

29.4

6.660

Calvas

4 114

4 478

10 106

40.7

44.3

8.134

Catamayo

8 251

8 692

13 458

61.3

64.6

5.076

Macara

5 654

6 186

11 032

51.3

56.1

8.600

Paltas

2 397

2 556

5 555

43.2

46.0

6.208

Babahoyo

20 220

21 291

56 731

35.6

37.5

5.031

Montalvo

2 276

2 430

7 455

30.5

32.6

6.356

Quevedo

32 225

34 638

88 306

36.5

39.2

6.968

Urdaneta

3 158

3 274

6 740

46.8

48.6

3.561

Ventanas

12 665

13 587

23 217

54.6

58.5

6.786

Vinces

8 839

9 797

17 512

50.5

55.9

9.779

Buena Fe

9 774

10 253

19 478

50.2

52.6

4.678

Valencia

4 207

4 468

7 913

53.2

56.5

5.854

Mocache

3 031

3 301

5 373

56.4

61.4

8.170

Portoviejo

29 543

31 300

139 493

21.2

22.4

5.613

Bolivar (De Manabi)

4 537

4 872

12 122

37.4

40.2

6.880

Chone

14 188

15 088

41 437

34.2

36.4

5.961

El Carmen

12 908

13 570

25 291

51.0

53.7

4.882

Jipijapa

18 434

19 180

33 115

55.7

57.9

3.894

Manta

43 404

46 247

128 115

33.9

36.1

6.148

Montecristi

13 399

14 203

22 425

59.7

63.3

5.665

Pajan

3 320

3 503

5 489

60.5

63.8

5.219

Rocafuerte

3 476

3 725

8 844

39.3

42.1

6.679

Santa Ana

2 218

2 362

6 368

34.8

37.1

6.083

Sucre

16 865

18 141

37 637

44.8

48.2

7.033

Tosagua

3 050

3 243

7 412

41.1

43.8

5.981

Pedernales

3 160

3 280

5 449

58.0

60.2

3.656

Puerto Lopez

5 548

5 745

8 043

69.0

71.4

3.443

Jaramijo

5 182

5 412

7 726

67.1

70.1

4.261

Morona

2 996

3 160

8 246

36.3

38.3

5.169

Tena

2 052

2 225

7 873

26.1

28.3

7.774

Pastaza

2 520

2 848

14 438

17.5

19.7

11.505

Quito

98 089

144 878

1 201 954

8.2

12.1

32.296

Cayambe

4 132

4 204

17 090

24.2

24.6

1.707

Mejia

2 312

2 397

9 379

24.6

25.6

3.574

Rumiñahui

5 704

6 507

37 595

15.2

17.3

12.347

Sto Domingo De Los Colorados

34 305

35 769

122 564

28.0

29.2

4.092

Ambato

18 040

20 220

124 166

14.5

16.3

10.781

Baños

2 919

3 085

9 501

30.7

32.5

5.362

Pelileo

1 221

1 273

5 954

20.5

21.4

4.091

Pillaro

1 033

1 111

5 146

20.1

21.6

7.006

Zamora

2 405

2 579

8 048

29.9

32.1

6.776

Orellana

3 551

3 781

7 805

45.5

48.4

6.098

Total

1 497 815

1 771 445

5 597 559

26.7

31.6

15.506

Figure A.4. Percentage of poor people per county, urban sample

Figure A.5. Comparison between probit method and spatial probit at county level, urban sample

Figure A.6. Comparison between probit method and spatial probit at province level, total sample

Figure A.7. Percentage of poor people per province, rural sample

Figure A.8. Comparison between probit method and spatial probit at province level, rural sample

Figure A.9. Percentage of poor people per province, urban sample

Figure A.10. Comparison between probit method and spatial probit at province level, urban sample

Figure A.11. Percentage of poor people per region


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