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8. The Conference, having examined the documentation prepared by the Secretariat, found that, although the world output of food in 1950/51 and 1951/52 had increased as compared with 1949, supplies per caput were practically the same.

Problems similar to those present in 1949 still face the countries of the world: some have been accentuated, others have emerged due to changes in the general economic situation following the outbreak of hostilities in Korea.

Production 1950/51

9. The aggregate production of the principal food crops in all countries' excluding the U.S.S.R., was estimated in 1950/51 to be slightly above 1949/50 and nine percent above prewar (1934-38). On a regional basis this increase in production was not uniform. While substantial increase above prewar Ievels occurred in certain areas, particularly in surplus producing regions, production in many countries in Europe and in the Far East was still well below prewar. Since 1936 the estimated population has increased by 13 percent. As a result supplies per caput in 1950/51 were still below prewar levels. which were in themselves insufficient.

The output of livestock products, both meat and milk, continued to expand in many regions, while the fish catch of major countries was ten percent higher than in the previous year.

10. The energy and protein content of food supplies in 1950/51 showed some gain in average calorie levels compared with 1949/50 and there were e small increases in protein consumption in North America, Europe and Latin America. Nutritional levels were, however, still very unsatisfactory in vast regions of the world, such as the Far East, the Near East and Africa, containing three-fifths of the world's peoples. The fact that current supplies were less than sufficient even to restore the low prewar levels in these areas, was in striking contrast with the increases which have taken place elsewhere.

11. Fiber production was estimated to be eight percent below 1949/50 and prewar as a result of the sharp decline in the cotton output in the United States of America. Even with substantial depletion of stocks and an enlarged output of synthetic fibers, demand outran supplies, and prices rose sharply.

12. The output of the major forest products - sawnwood and woodpulp - increased in 1950 in the United States of America and Canada while in Europe production of wood pulp increased and that of sawnwood remained practically unchanged. International trade in forest products was above that of the previous year.

The Current Situation (1951/52)

13. The Conference also noted that it is estimated that agricultural production in 1951/52 Will be larger than in 1950/51, but again the aggregate annual production per caput will not show any significant increase.

14. Total grain production appears to be about the same as in 1950/51. The total carryover in the four major exporting countries on 1 July 1951, was slightly larger than a year earlier. The production outlook in the major rice-growing countries is still considered favorable, although drought conditions reported in the Western and Central States of India may limit the recovery of production in that country from the low level of 1950/51. Production of other foods, such as sugar, meat, milk, fish, edible fats and oils, and cocoa, appear to be greater in 1951/52 than in the preceding year. The situation for edible fats and oils, for which increases in production are expected in both hard and soft-currency areas, seems to be particularly favorable. Prospects for coffee output are, on the contrary, less favorable, mainly as a result of an estimated drop in the Brazilian harvest.

15. When considered on a regional basis, it would appear that the current food situation may again give rise to a greater dependence on the hard-currency countries of the Western Hemisphere for supplies of many foods. These include cereals, sugar, and some-fats and oils.

16. While it is estimated that wheat production in 1951/52 will be somewhat higher in North America, some reduction is expected in Argentina and Australia. As a result of increased stocks and higher yields in Canada, the supply of coarse grains in North America will be unchanged from 1950/51, but Argentina gives little promise of being able to supply substantial quantities of feed grains in the current year. In Western Europe total wheat and rye crops are less than in 1950/51, but feed grain production is generally larger. It is therefore estimated that Western Europe will require imports of at least 14 million tons of wheat for current consumption. Although grain harvests for food and feed have been generally very good in the Danube Valley and the U.S.S.R., it is unlikely that Western Europe will derive significantly large wheat imports from this area so that continued dependence on the Western Hemisphere is indicated. In Asia and the Far East, the pressure of population on outside sources of food will continue in spite of an expected slight improvement in production. A similar situation exists in the Near East where the outlook for 1951 /52 production has deteriorated.

17. India will once again need large imports of rice. Egypt, whose production may decrease by some 30 percent compared with 1951/51, will show a sharp decline in exports, and Viet-Nam will again export only a fraction of the prewar average. It is unlikely that Burma and Siam will be able to sell much more than in 1950/5 T. Increased supplies will be available in the main only from the United States of America which is expected to have a record crop of 2 million tons.

18. Fiber production in 1951/52 is substantially larger than in 1950/51. A world cotton crop of some 33.5 million bales. 20 percent greater than last year, is in sight. As for wool, revised estimates now place production in 1951/52 at 1,060,000 tons (clean basis), only slightly more than in the preceding year. Output of jute and possibly also of hard fibers is considerably larger than in 1950/51. The official estimate of the Pakistan jute crop, which fixes this year's crop at 6.5 million bales, is somewhat below earlier commercial forecasts. Although sisal output is continuing to expand, a falling off in the rate of abacá production in recent months suggests that the expected volume for 1951 may not be attained.

19. The forest products situation will remain relatively stable for sawnwood, but a tight position seems likely to develop for wood pulp.

The General Economic Situation and its Impact upon Agriculture

20. During 1950 the general state of employment and industrial activity was at a high level in the developed countries. Military activity and defence preparations which have taken place since then have been superimposed on the world economy.

21. These activities have stimulated the demand for agricultural raw materials.

22. Moreover, because employment and incomes have been maintained at a very high level in industrial countries, the demand for foodstuffs has been buoyant, c specially for the more expensive foods. The increased demand provides an incentive for greater production in many areas. The indications of surpluses of agricultural commodities apparent during 1949 have largely disappeared. Generally speaking, gross farm incomes have increased, though this is of more significance to farmers producing for sale than to subsistence farmers. The heavy demand for agricultural raw materials in itself is presenting the problem of competition between various food and raw material crops. This clearly suggests some uncertainty regarding the rate at which food production may expand in the near future.

23. Farmers are faced with the same situation as the consumers of farm produce in having to spend their incomes in circumstances of rising prices and a relative shortage of goods. In some countries, farmers cannot currently buy as large a volume of the tools of production as they want. Industry, stimulated by defence preparations, increasingly competes with agriculture for materials. It may also draw more heavily than in the recent past upon the labor force and skill in the industrialized countries. This may result in a drop in the number of workers in agriculture, except to the extent to which it c an be offset by migration. Such competitive forces limit the rate at which agricultural output can be expanded. At the same time, they constitute a challenge to ingenuity in the more economic application of the resources that can be made available. There is, finally, the important question of maintaining and developing the supply of consumer goods, a strong incentive in stimulating the energies of peasants, subsistence farmers, and workers in the less-developed areas.

24. The total volume of international trade has continued to expand during 1950 and 1951. While heavy purchases of law materials by the United d States of America brought temporary relief to the dollar problem during 1950/51 reduced imports by the United States and heavier exports of materials needed for defence programs during 1951/52, particularly to Western Europe, resulted in some reorientation of trade and caused a further widening of the dollar gap. This situation. together with the shortage and increased cost of ocean and inland shipping, will undoubtedly tend to reduce the purchase of food from surplus areas in the Western Hemisphere.

25. The current agricultural commodity supply position in conjunction with the anticipated high level of economic activity in most industrial countries indicates that the demand for all agricultural products will continue to be strong. As a result, prices of farm products, food, and fibers, will tend to remain firm. Prices of some major foodstuffs and fibers in international markets, which have fluctuated sharply during the past year have begun to rise again, marking perhaps an intensification of inflationary pressures. Factors tending to press prices upward are rising personal incomes in the industrialized countries, a continuing steady demand by business for plants and equipment, and the rising requirements for defence. The rapid building-up of industrial capacity and the fact that inventories of many consumer goods, especially in North America, are large, may become offsetting factors.

26. In its consideration of the prospects for world food and agriculture over the next two years, the Conference had the benefit of a report which summarizes 1952/53 estimated agricultural production on a world and. regional basis, obtained from official production targets for individual countries, from forward estimates supplied to FAO by Member Governments or made by FAO after studying governmental policies, plans and programs, and existing trends. The report also provided an analysis of the progress made both on a regional and commodity basis, of the current trends, and of the prospects as disclosed by the 1952/53 objectives of individual countries.

Targets and Estimates for 1952/53

27. The Conference took note that 1952/53 targets and estimates implied appreciable increases in all regions in the production of cereals, with the exception of North America and Oceania, of sugar, fats and especially fibers. (The same appeared to be true for fisheries products.) They also indicated substantial increases in meat and milk in Europe and of meat in North America, but there was no evidence of any substantial improvement in the production of livestock products in the under-developed areas in the near future. Food production per person would still be ten percent less in the Far East and eight percent lower in Latin America than before the war.

28. The Conference was gravely concerned by the that food production over large areas of the world was not keeping pace with the growth of population; that progress generally remained slowest in the major food-deficient and seriously underfed nations of the world and that the expansion planned over the next two years, even if fully achieved, would be insufficient to remedy this situation.

29. The most important area presenting the most urgent problem is the Far East where the population of nearly 1,250 million is increasing at the rate of 12 million people a year. Here the agricultural pattern concentrates on quantity rather than quality, yet production constantly hovers between levels of basic subsistence and famine.

Inadequate Development Programs

30. Concern for this situation in these areas is greatly heightened by the Conference's belief that many of the 1952/53 production targets and estimates submitted to FAO are expressions of hope rather than actual expectation, and are apparently not based on adequate action programs; that agricultural progress in the past few years, especially in the large food-exporting countries, has been achieved under unusually favorable climatic conditions which cannot reasonably be expected to continue; and that overoptimistic targets coming at a time when the world is faced with reduced possibilities of purchasing feedstuffs, fertilizers and other agricultural requisites, may deter food-exporting countries from planning adequate surpluses to meet the minimum needs of the food-deficient countries.

31. The Conference wished to voice its special anxiety over the outlook for cereals. Cereals remain the staff of life for four-fifths of the world's population. In several countries the supply of manpower and in all the countries the supplies of requisites are, however, being restricted by the ever-increasing competition from industry, especially for the defence program. Some trends have indeed become evident which may have a serious impact on food, especially cereal supplies. Especially noticeable in the 1952/53 targets in nearly all regions, but particularly the Far East and the Near East, is the strong emphasis placed on agricultural raw materials in relation to food crops. It is recognized that governments and farmers must exploit the possibilities afforded by high agricultural raw material prices to increase farm income and foreign exchange earnings. Any large-scale diversion of rice and wheat lands to raw materials or of skilled agricultural labor to industry might, however, imperil the prospects for cereal production. In this connection, the Conference wished to draw attention to the fact that in several regions there was a steady but unregulated drift, of agricultural labor towards urban centers, where industry affords better remuneration. Above all the Conference wished to make known its deep concern over the projected decline in cereal production in the great exporting areas of North America and Oceania. True, these reductions are from peak levels reached in postwar years. But the ever-increasing demand for livestock products generated by rising incomes is absorbing a growing proportion of grain for domestic consumption in these art as - leaving a smaller proportion for export. In Latin America. increasing food production an barely keep pace with a rapidly growing population. The amount of food available for export there becomes less almost year by year. In addition. there is no indication that for the world as a whole the high postwar demand for cereals is likely to abate. For example in the Far East, even if 1952/53 objectives could be reached, cereal production per person would still be eight percent below prewar. In Europe, too, there would be little hope of achieving the projected expansion in animal production without a high level of imports of food and feed grains. The Conference, therefore, could not ignore the danger of the recurrence of a world crisis in cereals on the scale of the early postwar years unless planned action is taken to avert it.

32. Nevertheless, the Conference recognized that maintenance of large food production arid surpluses in the exporting countries could not by itself ever bridge the gap between the food requirements, and food production in the deficit areas. Indeed, the restoration of average nutrition standards in Europe and the Far East to their prewar relation with North American standards would require a movement equivalent to some 75 million tons of wheat into international tract in excess of the quantity moved before the war obviously an impossible task under any conceivable circumstances. The longer-term problem of a vast expansion in production. particularly in the food deficit areas, must be solved in order to ensure adequate nutritional standards for all.

Responsibilities of Governments

33. The Conference noted with satisfaction the growing awareness of governments in all parts of the word of the vital necessity of increasing food supplies. and the sense of urgency accompanying this awareness. It appreciated that there has been an intensification of conscious efforts by governments to increase food production whether by providing, research and extension services or by direct participation in the development of resources. In particular it recognized the value of the present programs that are bring undertaken in many food-deficit and other countries to expand arable areas by irrigation, drainage and land clearance, to enhance by various means yields per hectare, to raise the quantity and quality of livestock, to improve the farmers' lot by land reforms, better provision of credit, more cooperatives and other marketing facilities, and also to develop their fisheries by gradual mechanization sea fisheries and intensified sea culture. The approach to these tasks varies and will continue to vary from country to country and from region to region. In the Near East and Latin America for instance, possibilities exist for a large expansion of land under cultivation as well as an intensification of agriculture. In the Far East and Europe, the principal emphasis will have to be upon improving yields.

34. Nevertheless, it felt bound to emphasize that, apart from recovery from war damage and dislocation, concrete results were so far negligible in relation to the rapid and rhythmic expansion required to meet the needs of a growing population. Indeed, even if the 1952/53 targets and estimates submitted to FAO could be achieved, the dimensions of the problem would not be substantially reduced.

35. The achievement of these targets and estimates is, however, open to serious doubt, especially for cereals. For example, for Europe, the Far East and Near East, an aggregate increase of 34 million tons of grain, or nearly ten percent, is envisaged over the two years from 1950 to 1952. Current trends scarcely confirm this possibility. In Europe the area under cereals as a whole is not increasing; in the Far East the trend is slowly upwards; in the Near East the trend is more marked but below the rate of increase needed. Moreover, both in the Far East and the Near East the targets call for a large increase in competitive crops like fibers and oilseeds, while in some areas more attention is being paid to rubber tapping to the detriment of rice growing.

Potentialities for Expansion

36. Nevertheless, the Conference was convinced that the problem was not insoluble. On the contrary, it believed that the potentially productive resources available on the land and in the various bodies of water. if utilized with a fuller application of machinery, fertilizers and other requisites, as well as knowledge of techniques, would be more than sufficient to provide an adequate food supply to all people in the world in the immediate future.

37. The last few years have witnessed an impressive intensification of large-scale development programs and research. Neither large-scale projects nor research, however, are yet on an adequate scale. Nor will their benefits begin to be felt until after a lapse of some years. The biggest need is for programs which will have an immediate impact on the masses of food producers, especially in the under-developed areas.

38. The Conference felt that a periodic review of food and agricultural production, of trends, prospects and targets was a valuable guide for assessing progress recorded and the distance to be travelled until adequate levels of production are achieved. It urged the Director-General to continue his studies in this direction, especially in relation to long-term objectives such as those formulated in the World Food Survey of 1946. Such periodic reviews will greatly assist in the task of determining the main lines of national and international action required in the future.

Objectives and programs for agricultural development
Extension services, education and demonstration
Reform of agrarian structures
Investment for agricultural development (including forestry and fisheries)
Migration

39. It is evident from the review of the current situation and the trends and prospects for the years immediately ahead, as judged from existing development programs, that the rate of progress in the expansion of production of basic foods and other essential agricultural products is insufficient to bring about any substantial increase in the world's supplies compatible with the needs of a rapidly expanding population. The experience of the last five years has indicated that this will be achieved only by a conscious and determined attack; upon all the problems involved.

40. This is obviously an extremely complicated matter, the difficulties of which cannot be minimized. In the final analysis no progress can be made except through the progress of tens of millions of individual farmers. The response of farmers is necessarily based upon their ability to receive a satisfactory price for their products and their ability to obtain under profitable conditions the land, land equipment, supplies and labor necessary for production.

41. Although the possibilities of increasing production depend ultimately on the efforts of farmers themselves, the principal responsibility for creating conditions in which farmers will be able and willing to expand production clearly rests on governments. This responsibility must be accepted. Acting individually and collectively, governments have responsibility for helping farmers to obtain, through official services and through local or private organizations, adequate markets at satisfactory prices and the labor, tools, machinery and other agricultural requisites needed for their work. Governments also have the primary responsibility for the provision of education, research, extension services and agricultural credit and for bringing about necessary reforms in agrarian structures. Governments also bear the final responsibility, whether they carry out the task themselves or not, of ensuring the full and wise development of the basic national resources of land and water.

Objectives and programs for agricultural development

42. It is clear that the assumption by governments of the final responsibility for the complex set of conditions which determine the ability and willingness of farmers to produce implies the necessity for a co-ordinated approach to the problems of agricultural development. Governments, more especially those of under-developed countries, cannot fulfill their responsibilities for the welfare of farmers and the living standards of their population, without co-ordinated programs for agricultural development. Such programs will guide their efforts in providing favorable conditions for the work of the farmer. Such over-all development pro grams must of course be based not only on the natural conditions. resources and economic needs of each country but also, upon their political traditions, folkways and ways of life.

43. In determining their agricultural policies and preparing their programs, governments cannot work in isolation from one another. They must take into account the needs of other countries for their products and the possibilities for selling these products abroad, their requirements from abroad both for food and agricultural raw materials and for the things needs d by farmers for their own production and the need for and possibilities of financial assistance from other countries when required. These manifold inter-relations bind the various countries of the world, most of whom are Member Governments of FAO, into a close relationship of interdependence which requires an equally close relationship of cooperation.

44. Holding as it does the opinion expressed in the immediately preceding paragraphs, the Conference e heard with full approval the call of the Director-General for every government to take upon itself the responsibility for ensuring a co-ordinated program for the development of its own agriculture by the most efficient use of its resources and for cooperation with other governments. In this connection it has adopted the following resolution:

The Conference

Having heard a statement from the Director-General on the serious world food outlook arising from the fact that the increase in world food output is falling behind the increase in population and that the world has less food per person than before the war when more than half of the population suffered from malnutrition,

Being convinced that the progress that can be achieved in the years immediately ahead on the basis of existing development programs will be insufficient to change this situation radically and that there is little prospect of achieving by 1960 the levels of production and consumption hoped for at the time of the founding of the Organization and considered necessary for a minimum program of sound nutrition,

Places on record its belief that a well-balanced increase of one to two percent per annum in world production of basic food and other essential agricultural products in excess of the rate of population growth may be all that can be reasonably hoped for in the years immediately ahead, but is the minimum necessary to achieve some improvement in nutritional standards;

Recommends that all Member Countries should co-operate in the effort to achieve this overall objective by preparing and carrying out forward agricultural development plans suited to their own circumstances and conditions, covering the next five years and designed to provide their contribution to the achievement of the objective;

Decides that these national programs and their progress should be reviewed at FAO regional meetings to be held, unless the Council decides otherwise, in the spring of 1953 with the object of promoting regional co-ordination and making available to the Conference following these regional meetings an overall review of the programs prepared and the progress achieved and an assessment of the contribution they have made arid will make to meeting the world's increasing need for food and other essential agricultural products;

Authorizes the Director-General to assist Member Governments in the preparation of their forward production programs by providing technical, agricultural and economic guidance and to advise and help those Governments in the implementation of these programs to the maximum extent possible under the regular and the Expanded Technical Assistance Program.

Extension services, education and demonstration

45. The implementation of these agricultural development programs requires attention to a wide range of problems. As is stressed in paragraphs 39-41, there are many important factors in any program for increasing food and agricultural production and consumption, such as the development of water resources, provision of requisites, research and education, making the technical knowledge of the more advanced countries available for application to the rest of the world, and the avoidance of preventable waste in production, storage and transport. Earlier sessions of the Conference have stressed from a policy point of view the importance of these subjects in the efforts of Member Governments and in the work of FAO and many of them are already well established as part of the program of work of the Organization. Therefore if, in its broad policy discussions, the Conference had this year placed the emphasis on other issues, it was not with the intention of belittling the aspects mentioned above but merely to draw the attention of governments and of FAO to fields of activity which, considering the progress already achieved in defining the tasks and problems of FAO and its Member Governments, appears d now to be the principal areas of work which must receive greater attention by governments and by the Organization if a well-rounded approach to the technical. the sociological and the economic facets of agricultural development is to be worked out.

46. The Conference considered that few if any factors were of greater importance than extension, education and demonstration work with regard to agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and home economics and was in entire agreement with the emphasis which had been laid upon this subject by the Director-General in his opening speech to Commission I. There is a wide and possibly a growing gap between what is known regarding the possibilities of increasing food and agricultural production and the primitive methods and techniques used by the great majority of the world's farmers particularly in the underdeveloped regions. In part, this is due to lack of ability to obtain and pay for the equipment and supplies needed for modern methods, but it is probably due in greater measure to lack of knowledge.

47. In order to close this gap between knowledge and practice it is essential that many Member Governments should pay more attention than at present to the establishment and development of extension and demonstration services.

48. To date it is chiefly the developed countries such as those of Europe, North America and Oceania which have established, on something like an adequate scale, services to carry out these tasks. In a large number of under-developed countries only a skeleton for these essential services exists and in practically all countries in under-developed regions the services are seriously under-staffed and lack the supplies and equipment necessary for effective demonstration work capable of reaching large numbers of farmers. In developing these services, governments must not aim merely to copy and reproduce the methods and Organization existing in the more advanced countries but need to work out systems and techniques of extension, education and demonstration appropriate to their own condition, such services to be organized within the framework of local administration in order to assure local co-operation and to develop local responsibility for the operation of the program. For example, the type of organization and methods of operation must fit into the local culture and take into account the necessity for promoting the advancement of all groups of rural populations, and especially of small producers and workers engaged in farms, forests and fisheries. Technical assistance provided from abroad should be directed toward assisting responsible agricultural officials in developing their own services with due consideration to the local political, economic and social environment.

49. Lack of trained personnel constitutes one of the most important obstacles to the development of national extension programs. Increased national expenditure on extension services, aided by an expanded training program, is called for

50. The Conference unanimously endorsed the program of regional training centers. FAO's assistance was also requested for national training programs and for schemes now successfully under way in several Member Countries on a small scale.

51. It was recommended that the staff conducting training centers should be people with broad experience in extension work in countries with conditions similar to those in which the training center is established. It was further recommended that training for extension workers should include: extension methods and techniques in general; the organization and administration of extension services; and extension work in specific technical fields. The importance of integration with the local school system, with local organizations engaged in community development, and with welfare programs conducted by other international organizations was emphasized. Regional and national training programs should be combined with a fellowship program providing training abroad for extension workers.

52. The Conference further considered that if governments were to be able to meet their responsibilities for establishing and developing extension, education and demonstration services, FAO would need to devote special attention to this aspect of its program. In addition to assisting governments in planning and putting into operation their national extension services it will be necessary for the Organization, on request, to take the lead-in organizing and operating a limited but representative number of training centers and pilot projects on a national or a regional basis, insofar as its financial and other resources permit. The Conference adopted the following resolution:

The Conference

Bearing in mind the possibilities for increased production through better agricultural education and the application of existing knowledge to farm practices and the need in this respect for a well-rounded approach to the technical, sociological and economic facets of agricultural development in all countries,

Considering that the experience of the agriculturally most-advanced countries has shown that research and experiment must be supplemented by an extensive network of small-scale demonstration projects and large numbers of men who understand both the importance and methods of using modern agricultural techniques and also the psychology and ways of farmers,

Being fully convinced that the surest way to promote the increased production so necessary to raising the total agricultural and food production and improve the standard of living is to start at the farm level with demonstration and education, in order to improve techniques, production methods and farm and home management, within the limits of the farmer's resources and understanding,

Realizing also that some countries consider that the organizational development of small farmers on a group basis, within the context of the reform of the agrarian Structures, is an essential prerequisite to the economic development of common services and the efficient utilization of capital works and equipment, which are necessary for any long-term improvement in the production and standards of living of such farmer,

Calls upon all Member Governments:

Requests the Director-General

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