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DocumentOECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025 Commodity Snapshots: Cereals 2016
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Global cereal markets have been characterised over the past few years by abundant supplies amid slower demand growth. As a result, world inventories have increased and international prices of all cereals have fallen to relatively low levels compared to the previous decade. Even the decline in world cereal production in 2015, following the 2014 record harvest, could not reverse this downward pressure, leading to further declines in international prices during the 2015 marketing year (see glossary for a definition of marketing year). Given the early prospects in world cereal output for this season, weak demand and large inventories in 2016, global markets are likely to experience relatively low prices. Against this background, only radical or sudden changes in demand or supply are likely to alter the short-term outlook.Read the Summary of the report.
Access the Outlook chapter-by-chapter:
- Forward
- Acronyms and abbreviations
- Executive summary
- Chapter 1: Overview of the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025
- Chapter 2: Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa: Prospects and challenges for the next decade
- Chapter 3: Commodity snapshots
- Cereals
- Oilseeds and Oilseed Products
- Sugar
- Meat
- Dairy and Dairy Products
- Fish and Seafood
- Biofuels
- Cotton
- Statistical Annex
For more information, visit the web site.
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Book (stand-alone)The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO) 2004 2004Technical developments that increase productivity and reduce costs mean that the long-term trend in real agricultural commodity prices on international markets is gradually downwards but that trend is dominated by significant short-term variability. Many developing countries, and especially the least developed countries, continue to depend on just a few agricultural commodities for the bulk of their export earnings. For them, commodity price variability has a strong impact on incomes, employment and government revenues, compromising macroeconomic planning and development efforts more generally. However, developing countries are also as a group increasingly reliant on food imports. The least developed countries are already net food importers. In these circumstances, falling international food prices are obviously beneficial but increasing reliance on imported food also means greater exposure to the variability in international food prices and hence food import bills. Developing countrie s need to contend with variability of international commodity prices in their efforts to increase their export earnings or manage their food import bills. At the same time, they must also contend with the market distortions introduced by the import tariffs and export and production subsidies used by both developed and developing countries, and by the market power in many commodity value chains of large transnational companies. The traditional international responses to commodity market instabili ty based on market interventions or compensation schemes are not currently favoured and new approaches are needed. These new approaches, such as marketbased price risk management, are aimed less at preventing price swings than at helping producers and consumers predict and manage better their adverse impacts.
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Book (stand-alone)The 2007 - 2008 food price swing - Impact and policies in Eastern and Southern Africa
Fao Commodities and Trade Technical Paper 12
2009Also available in:
No results found.Between 2007 and 2008, the world experienced a dramatic swing in commodity prices. Food commodity prices also increased substantially during the summer of 2008, reaching their highest level in nearly thirty years, before decreasing sharply as expectations for an economic recession set in. Eastern and Southern African countries experienced considerable difficulties due to the price food swing. The food price boom resulted in increased poverty and significant food security problems as households struggled to meet the high cost of food. At the macroeconomic level, high food import bills, inflation and foreign exchange constraints increased the fragility of developing and less developed countries. Although the ensuing world economic recession did lead to a drop in food prices, it carried with it a different set of problems. The decline in exports due to weak demand, decreased foreign investment and migrant remittances, as well as high unemployment all added to the b urden of already vulnerable African countries. Policy reactions to the food price surge have been prompt in many developing countries. A number of short-run measures in order to rein in the increase in food prices and to protect consumers and vulnerable population groups were introduced, such as reductions in import tariffs. Other countries resorted to food inventory management aimed at stabilizing domestic prices. A range of interventions have also been implemented to mitigate the a dverse impacts on vulnerable households, such as targeted subsidized food sales. Other countries scaled-up already existing input subsidy programs to assist producers and stimulate supply response as fertilizer prices also soared.
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