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The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO) 2006











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    Book (series)
    No. 2. Tariff reduction formulae: Methodological issues in assessing their effects
    FAO Trade Policy Technical Notes on issues related to the WTO negotiations on agriculture
    2005
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    The current round of WTO negotiations on agriculture initiated in Doha in 2001 produced a range of suggestions as to the appropriate approach for further cuts in, and disciplines on, the use of agricultural tariffs. Subsequent analyses have provided crucial information for negotiators and policy analysts on the relative implications of these approaches on the tariff profiles of their individual countries as well as on those of their main trading partners. However, it is essential that these analysts and negotiators are aware of a number of key methodological issues and assumptions which can fundamentally affect analytical results.
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    Book (stand-alone)
    Agricultural trade liberalization in the Doha round. Alternative scenarios and strategic interactions between developed and developing countries
    Commodity and Trade Policy Research Working Paper No. 10.
    2004
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    The paper explores the impact of an agricultural trade agreement, simulating alternative liberalization scenarios, and studying the outcomes of the interaction between the strategies of country groups in the negotiations. The analysis is based on the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), and on the related version 5.4 database. Scenarios are run on a 2013 baseline, built by taking into account a number of events that have affected (and will further affect) world agricultural markets up to that period, focusing on the effects that are specifically attributable to further trade liberalization in the Doha Round. The policy strategies analyzed are two liberalization scenarios based on the proposals made in the present round of agricultural negotiations in terms of market access and export competition, plus a free agricultural trade benchmark scenario. Simulations are employed to study the interactions between the possible strategies of two wide country groups – developed and d eveloping countries on the basis of game theory, and to search for mutually advantageous agreements to be compared with actual agreement hypotheses. Results indicate that welfare gains could be reaped both by developed and developing countries and the possibility of inter-country compensations would allow, at least in principle, an agreement to be reached.
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    Book (stand-alone)
    The State of Agricultural Commodity Markets (SOCO) 2004 2004
    Technical developments that increase productivity and reduce costs mean that the long-term trend in real agricultural commodity prices on international markets is gradually downwards but that trend is dominated by significant short-term variability. Many developing countries, and especially the least developed countries, continue to depend on just a few agricultural commodities for the bulk of their export earnings. For them, commodity price variability has a strong impact on incomes, employment and government revenues, compromising macroeconomic planning and development efforts more generally. However, developing countries are also as a group increasingly reliant on food imports. The least developed countries are already net food importers. In these circumstances, falling international food prices are obviously beneficial but increasing reliance on imported food also means greater exposure to the variability in international food prices and hence food import bills. Developing countrie s need to contend with variability of international commodity prices in their efforts to increase their export earnings or manage their food import bills. At the same time, they must also contend with the market distortions introduced by the import tariffs and export and production subsidies used by both developed and developing countries, and by the market power in many commodity value chains of large transnational companies. The traditional international responses to commodity market instabili ty based on market interventions or compensation schemes are not currently favoured and new approaches are needed. These new approaches, such as marketbased price risk management, are aimed less at preventing price swings than at helping producers and consumers predict and manage better their adverse impacts.

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