Meat Market Review

FAO

Meat Market Review

Emerging trends and outlook, 2023

Year of publication 2023

Place of publication Rome, Italy ;

Pages 22 p.

Author FAO

Publisher FAO ;

Product type Journal, magazine, bulletin

Series title Meat Market Review

Series number dec/23

Full item page

Synopsis (short abstract) The review finds that world meat production will likely expand in 2023, reflecting an increased supply of animals for slaughter amid favourable production conditions in some leading producing regions. However, global meat trade will likely contract due to sluggish economic growth and high stocks in leading importing countries. Meanwhile, international meat prices have trended downward since July 2023, underpinned by increased export availabilities with a slowdown in import demand.

Language English

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Global meat output in 2018 is estimated at 336.4 million tonnes, up 1.2 percent from 2017, principally originated in the United States, the EU, and the Russian Federation, but partially offset by a decline in China and stagnation in Brazil, two of the world’s largest meat producers. Meat output volumes expanded in all major regions in the world, especially in Europe and North America. Productivity improvements, as countries introduced better management practices, more streamlined production systems and new technology, were largely behind the output expansion. Moreover, droughts in some parts of the world, including in the United States in the first half of the year, in the EU during the summer months, and Australia almost throughout the year, led to higher animal slaughter. Across the various meat sub-sectors, bovine meat output (refer to meat derived from ruminant mammals including cows, ox and buffalos) registered the highest expansion (+2.1 percent), followed by poultry meat (+1.3 percent), but remained stable for ovine meat (meat derived from sheep and goats) (+0.6 percent) and pigmeat (+0.6 percent). World meat exports in 2018 is estimated at 33.8 million tonnes, up 2.9 percent from 2017, principally driven by increased shipments from the United States, Australia, Argentina and the EU, but retreated in India, China and Brazil. China, the world’s largest meat importer, increased its purchases significantly, as consumer demand for meat continued to rise amid a contraction in pigmeat output, partly due to the onset of the African swine fever. Elsewhere, imports increased in the Republic of Korea, and Viet Nam, while the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia and the United States have cut back on imports. Across meat categories, world meat exports expanded at faster rates for ovine (+9.4 percent) and bovine (+6.1 percent) than for pigmeat (+1.6 percent) and poultry (+1.0 percent). The annual average value of world meat prices in 2018, measured by the FAO Meat Price Index, was 2.2 percent lower than in 2017, reflecting the declines in prices of pig (-8.1 percent) and poultry (-4.8 percent) meats and stability of bovine meat prices (+0.2 percent). Ovine meat prices increased by as much as 17 percent, but did not affect the average index value significantly because of its low weightage in the index. The spread of the African Swine Fever (ASF) and associated import restrictions weighed on international pigmeat price quotations while generally sluggish poultry import demand caused its prices to weaken. Abundant export supplies and robust demand from across the world characterized the global bovine market, keeping its prices stable. Price strength of ovine meat during the whole year was a result of strong import demand, combined with limited supplies from Oceania.
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Key trends in 2018 Global meat output is forecast to hover around 335 million tonnes in 2018, up 1.5 percent from 2017, the fastest pace of growth since 2014. The regained momentum coincides with expectations of a strong recovery of the meat sector in China, after three years of contraction, and of sizeable increases in the United States and the EU. At the regional level, the outlook is generally positive, with all regions expected to produce more meat this year. World meat exports in 2018 are forecast to set a new record of 33.6 million tonnes, up 2.6 percent from 2017. This comes in the wake of a continued increase in shipments from the United States amid a retreat by India, Brazil and South Africa. Australia, Argentina, Thailand and the EU are also expected to expand exports. Amid changes in production, consumer demand and policies, meat imports are likely to rise in some major importing countries, in particular China, Japan, Mexico and the Republic of Korea, while they may fall in the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Singapore. Import demand is rising faster for bovine and ovine meat than for pigmeat and poultry. The FAO Meat Price Index reached 166.2 points in September, stable compared to January 2018, but 4.5 percent below the corresponding month in 2017. Since January 2018, international prices of bovine meat have weakened by 3.8 percent, reflecting the availability of ample export supplies.
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