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El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, August–December 2023

Mitigating the expected impacts of El Niño-induced climate extremes on agriculture and food security








FAO. 2023. El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan (August–December 2023). Mitigating the expected impacts of El Niño-induced climate extremes on agriculture and food security. Rome.



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    El Niño: Anticipatory Action and Response Plan, October 2023–March 2024
    Mitigating the expected impacts of El Niño-induced climate extremes on agriculture and food security
    2023
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    The latest forecasts point to a greater than 80 percent chance of El Niño continuing through March–May 2024, following declaration of the onset of El Niño conditions in early July 2023 by the World Meteorological Organization. The strength is expected to be comparable to the top six strongest events in recorded history, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather and climate hazards, ranging from drought to floods and storms. By disrupting rainfall and temperature patterns, El Niño may strongly impact agriculture, rural livelihoods and food security. Such early warnings clearly call for early action. FAO’s El Niño Anticipatory Action and Response Plan requires urgent funding to deliver immediate support in a number of identified countries around the world, based on analysis of historical trends, latest seasonal forecasts, agricultural seasonality and the vulnerability of populations at risk.
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    Mongolia: Belgium’s contribution through the Special Fund for Emergency and Rehabilitation Activities (SFERA) – Anticipatory Action window 2023
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    In Mongolia, the frequency, intensity and unpredictability of weather extremes such as the harsh winter (dzud), drought, snow and dust storms, heavy rainfall and flooding have tripled in the last decade, heavily impacting traditional livestock-based livelihoods. In 2022, according to the National Agrometeorological Services, 50 percent of the country’s territory experienced a moisture deficit in the summer season. Coupled with early snowfall and below-average temperature forecasts, this resulted in 59 percent of the country being at high risk of dzud. Following these early warning signs, and thanks to the Government of Belgium’s contribution to the SFERA – Anticipatory Action window, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) together with the Government of Mongolia put in place Anticipatory Action measures to mitigate a potential massive livestock mortality in 11 provinces at high risk of dzud. FAO will provide cash transfers to help households procure fodder at reduced government rates and ensure their livelihood is protected during dzud. The reduced rates will come in the form of a 50 percent discount on hay and fodder from the state emergency reserve to vulnerable herder households in 158 soums/administrative divisions.
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    Zimbabwe: Sweden’s contribution through the Special Fund for Emergency and Rehabilitation Activities (SFERA) – Anticipatory Action window 2023
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    Zimbabwe has been plagued by multiple hazards over the last decade, suffering from a series of climatic shocks including cyclones, droughts, floods and pest infestations coupled with severe economic challenges. This has caused significant damage to agricultural livelihoods and impacted food security. Regional and national seasonal forecasts predicted above-average rainfall during the 2022/23 rainy season, showing an increased risk of flooding coinciding with the ongoing agricultural season. This would have strong impacts on vulnerable small-scale farmers. Thanks to the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency’s (Sida's) contribution to the SFERA – Anticipatory Action window, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is putting in place Anticipatory Action measures to mitigate the potential impact of expected floods on vulnerable households. If the triggers are hit, the intervention will support households in Matobo and Gwanda in cooperation with partners and the government through the provision of training and protection measures.

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