Reference Date: 09-September-2026

Diesel scarcity hampers harvesting operation of 2026 winter cereals

A persistent shortage of diesel is hampering the ongoing harvesting operations of the 2026 winter crops by constraining the use of tractors and other agricultural machinery, thus reducing yield prospects. The fuel shortage largely reflects the country’s limited foreign exchange reserves, which continue to constrain import capacity and drive up agricultural production costs.

The harvest of the 2026 minor season maize crop, that accounts for about 15 percent of the annual production, is ongoing. Lack of fuel and rising costs of agricultural inputs at the beginning of the season in May 2026 limited planting intentions, particularly among smallholder farmers, and output is expected to be below average. Nevertheless, aggregate maize production in 2026 is anticipated at an above‑average level, reflecting an expansion of the area planted to the main season maize crop in response to higher year‑on‑year prices at the end of 2025.

The area sown with sorghum, mostly concentrated in eastern Santa Cruz department, is estimated at an above‑average level, supported by robust demand from the domestic feed industry. This is expected to more than offset the low yields, resulting in an above‑average production. On the contrary, wheat outcome is forecast to remain below average, as rising costs of production and strong competition from imported grain continued to discourage planting. As a result, the area sown to wheat is anticipated at record‑low level.

Imports of cereals in 2026/27 forecast above average

Imports of cereals in 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are estimated around 441 000 tonnes, almost 65 percent above the five‑ year average level. The relatively high import volumes mainly reflect the growing demand of wheat flour for food consumption following a decline in domestic wheat production. The prolonged suspension of import tariffs on wheat and wheat flour in 2026 also enhanced the competitiveness of imported grains, supporting import demand.

In the 2026/27 marketing year, cereal import requirements are forecast to remain above average, mostly driven by the robust domestic demand for wheat and tight carryover stocks following the low 2026 harvest. The devaluation of the Boliviano following the adoption of a more flexible exchange-rate regime in June 2026 is expect ed to increase the cost of imported agricultural inputs, limiting domestic production prospects and further boosting import demand.

Prices of wheat flour and rice lower year‑on‑year, due to large imports

Retail prices of chicken meat strengthened across markets between March and July 2026. Persistent diesel and fuel shortages disrupted transport of maize grains for feed use, delaying poultry meat production and tightening market supply. Market availability was further constrained by roadblocks along major roads and the declaration of the state of exception in June 2026, which limited producers’ access to markets.

Prices of wheat flour remained stable in May and June 2026, ahead of the start of the main season harvest in July and were up to 30 percent below their level of June 2025, mainly driven by large import amounts across the year.

Between April and June 2026, retail prices of rice remained generally stable across markets, reflecting adequate supply from the 2026 harvest, that finalized in  April. On a year‑on‑year basis, prices were mostly lower, supported by increased market due to higher import  volumes.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .