Reference Date: 25-November-2025

Paddy output in 2025 estimated at above-average level, due to favourable weather conditions

Harvesting operations of the 2025 minor season paddy crop are expected to start in December and output prospects are near the average. During the planting phase from July to September 2025, rice prices were almost unchanged on a yearly basis, resulting in a similar year-on-year planted area acreage, close to the five-year average. Cumulative rainfall amounts were below the long-term average in key producing northwestern and central areas in September and October 2025, affecting crop conditions at emergence and development stages. In southern regions, torrential rains associated with Hurricane Melissa at the end of last October generated localized floodings and landslides, but crop losses were reported to be limited, as only a minor proportion of rice is cropped in the area. The aggregate 2025 paddy output is estimated at an above-average level due to excellent yields of the main season crop, harvested from April to August 2025, reflecting favourable weather conditions in the second quarter of the year.

Domestically produced maize accounts for about 5 percent of the total domestic utilization and it is cultivated throughout the year. Production in 2025 is expected to be above average as the growing demand of yellow maize by the feed sector, in particular for the poultry industry, encouraged an increase in plantings.

Average precipitation to benefit start of 2026 main paddy season plantings

Plantings of the 2026 main season paddy crop, which accounts for about 70 percent of the total annual production, will take place from December 2025 to March 2026. Forecasts of average rainfall amounts during the first quarter of 2026 are anticipated to provide conducive conditions for land preparation and planting operations.

Import requirements anticipated to be average in 2025/26 marketing year

About 60 percent of the country’s cereal consumption needs are covered by imports. The requirements are driven by the steady demand of wheat for household and touristic consumption primarily sourced by the United States of America, as well as of maize from the poultry industry, imported by both the United States of America and Brazil. In the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June), cereal import requirements are forecast at about 2.2 million tonnes, near the five-year average level but lower year-on-year due to ample carryover stocks from the high level of imports in 2024.

Prices of rice near previous year’s level

Retail prices of rice stabilized in October 2025, after showing some slight increases in August and September. In October, prices were near their year-earlier levels, as the higher year-on-year domestic production in 2025 offset the reduction in import amounts due to introduction of new import tariffs in December 2024.

From June to October 2025, retail prices of yellow maize have steadily increased, in line with prices in Brazil, the main exporting partner. Compared to the previous year, prices were over 10 percent higher, driven by the strong demand from the growing poultry sector.

Retail prices of black beans have been declining across the year, mainly due to a year-on-year increase in import amounts and were about 10 percent below their level of one year before in October 2025.

Tropical Storm Melissa in October 2025 affected access to food, water and essential services in southern regions

At the end of October 2025, Tropical Storm Melissa brought several days of torrential rains which affected southern and southwestern regions. Flooding and strong winds disrupted livelihoods and damaged infrastructures, causing temporary displacement and affecting access to food, water and essential services.

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, the number of people projected to face acute food insecurity (classified under IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) between June and September 2025 was estimated at about 890 000, almost 8 percent of the analysed population, down from 1.04 million people between May and August 2024. The slight improvement reflects the year-on-year increase in cereal production in 2025.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .