Reference Date: 12-November-2026

Production of 2026 main Meher season crops affected by El Niño‑related rainfall deficits

Harvesting of the 2026 main Meher season crops, planted in June and July, began in October and is expected to conclude in December. The June‑September 2026 Kiremt rainy season was characterized by significant rainfall deficits associated with the ongoing El Niño event, particularly in Tigray, eastern Amhara and eastern Oromia regions. In these areas, dry weather conditions severely affected crop germination and development. Although rains improved towards the end of the season in some areas, crop damage was largely irreversible, resulting in significant production shortfalls in the worst‑affected areas.

Erratic rainfall resulted in localized production shortfalls of 2026 Belg  crops

Harvesting of the secondary Belg season crops was completed in July in southern Tigray, eastern Amhara, southeastern Oromia and in former SNNP regions. Although cumulative rainfall during the February‑May 2026 rainy season was generally average to above average, its temporal distribution was highly erratic. Below average rainfall in February was followed by torrential rains in March, which accounted for nearly half of the seasonal rainfall total. Subsequently, below‑average rainfall in April and May constrained soil moisture availability during critical crop growth stages. The early‑season rainfall surpluses were insufficient to compensate for subsequent moisture deficits, resulting in localized crop production shortfalls in several areas.

Mixed rangeland and livestock conditions in pastoral areas

In southern and southeastern pastoral areas of southern Oromia and southern Somali regions, the October‑December 2026 Deyr/Hageya rainy season had a timely onset, with October rainfall amounts reaching two to three times the long-term average. The favourable rainfall conditions improved pasture regeneration and water availability, supporting livestock grazing conditions. Forecasts indicate that above‑average rainfall is likely to continue during the remainder of the season, potentially further improving livestock body conditions, reproduction and milk production. However, the anticipated rainfall surpluses may also increase the risk of flooding in flood‑prone areas.

By contrast, in northern pastoral areas of Afar Region, the poor performance of the June‑September 2026 Karan/Karma rainy season constrained rangeland regeneration and replenishment of water resources. Consequently, livestock entered the ongoing October 2026‑March 2027 dry season in below‑average body condition, with limited availability of pasture and water expected to exacerbate livestock stress. Conditions are likely to deteriorate further before the onset of the March‑May 2027 Diraac/Sugum rainy season, potentially affecting livestock productivity, reproduction and milk availability.

Maize prices at record levels

Prices of locally produced maize surged by 70 to 90 percent between December 2025 and September 2026, reaching new record highs. The high levels and the sharp increases reflect seasonal trends, compounded by the continued depreciation of the national currency, elevated fuel prices and associated transport costs. More recently concerns over the performance of the 2026 Meher harvest have exerted further upward pressure on prices.

Concerns for the food security situation in areas affected by Meher crop production shortfalls and in northern Afar Region

In western and central crop producing areas, the food security situation has generally improved since September 2026 following the start of the 2026 major Meher harvest. However, these improvements are expected to be limited and short‑lived in areas affected by significant production shortfalls. The outlook for pastoral areas is mixed. In southern and southeastern regions, food security conditions are expected to improve as above‑average October‑December 2026 Deyr/Hageya rainfall amounts are expected to support livestock production, reproduction and milk availability. By contrast, food security is expected to deteriorate in northern Afar Region, where livestock body conditions are likely to worsen during the ongoing October 2026‑February 2027 dry season.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .