Reference Date: 05-January-2026

Maize output in 2025 expected at near‑average level

Harvesting of the 2025 Postrera minor season maize crop, which accounts for about 20 percent of the total annual production, is about to start and seasonal production is expected at an average level. After starting with some delay due to the belated harvest of the preceding 2025 main season crop, planting operations progressed under generally favourable weather conditions. However, well above‑average rainfall amounts in October 2025 saturated soil moisture and curbed yield prospects.

Overall, aggregate maize production in 2025 is anticipated to be at near‑average levels. It includes a near-average output of the Primera main season maize crop, harvested in October 2025. After the delayed start of seasonal rains, precipitation amounts in the June to August period were near average, but its erratic distribution affected yields especially in the Dry Corridor, lowering outturn of the main season maize crop.

Weather forecasts point to average rainfall amounts during the first quarter of 2026, boosting yield prospects for the Postrera tardía third season bean crops.

Cereal import requirements forecast at high levels in 2025/26

Cereal imports in the 2025/26 marketing year (September/August) are anticipated at 1.5 million tonnes, about 11 percent above the previous five‑year average. High import requirements reflect strong domestic demand for wheat and rice by the growing population, exacerbated by the declining domestic paddy production, as well as for yellow maize by the local feed industry.

Prices of white maize and red beans more than 35 percent higher year‑on‑year in November 2025

Despite some declines in October and November 2025 due to increased market supply from the 2025 main season harvest, prices of white maize in November 2025 were about 35 percent above the level of one year before, reflecting lower year‑on‑year imports. After declines in the previous two months, prices of red beans rose in November 2025 as abundant rains affected production prospects of the main season crops when they were at flowering and grain‑filling stages. Prices were more than 35 percent higher year‑on‑year, as Tropical Storm Sara a year earlier resulted in tight bean supplies. Prices of rice were generally stable throughout 2025 and were about 5 percent below their year‑earlier levels in November 2025, mainly due to larger year‑on‑year imports.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .