Reference Date: 23-September-2026

Paddy production rises but remains below average in 2026

The bulk of the main‑season 2026 paddy crop was harvested by May. Pending official figures, total paddy production in 2026 is provisionally estimated to have increased from the reduced level of 2025 but is still expected to fall short of the five‑year average.

The expected year‑on‑year increase largely reflects generally favourable weather conditions in northern and some central regions, which account for a large share of the national paddy output. These conditions supported a recovery in the national harvested area to a near‑average level, more than offsetting below‑average yields and contributing to the estimated production increase in 2026. However, weather conditions were less favourable in eastern and western regions, where the onset of the 2025/26 rainy season was delayed by up to three dekads, hindering planting activities and compressing the growing period. Although cumulative seasonal rainfall amounts were close to or slightly above the long‑term average, rainfall was poorly distributed over season, negatively affecting crop development and constraining yields.

In southern regions, seasonal rainfall totals were well below average. However, the effect on aggregate paddy production was limited because these regions account for only a small share of the national rice output. Production of maize, by contrast, is concentrated in the south, and national maize production is provisionally estimated to be below average in 2026, reflecting reduced yields on account of the seasonal rainfall shortages.

Additional constraints to production in 2026 came from tropical cyclones Fytia and Gezani, which made landfall in late January and early February 2026, respectively. The storms caused flooding in the northwest and central highlands, damaging paddy crops that were at the early establishment and vegetative stages, when crops are particularly vulnerable to flood damage. Prolonged inundation led to crop losses in low‑lying fields, but the losses were localized, and therefore the impact on aggregate national paddy production was limited.

El Niño poses downside risk to 2027 crop production

Planting of the main‑season 2027 paddy crop is expected to commence in November. Weather forecasts associated with the ongoing El Niño event indicate an increased likelihood of average to below‑average rainfall amounts across most of the country during the first months of the season, raising concerns over planting operations and crop establishment. However, past El Niño events have had a limited effect on paddy production, as seasonal rainfall totals in the main producing regions have generally remained close to average and production volumes have broadly remained at near‑average levels.

Prices of rice decline in 2026

Prices of rice have softened across the country since the start of 2026, with prices of locally produced varieties declining by up to 25 percent between January and July 2026. The decrease was in part supported by improved domestic market supplies following the recovery in paddy production in 2026. Prices of imported rice varieties also decreased, albeit at a slower pace, by less than 10 percent on average over the same period. The decline reflects lower benchmark export prices in major supplying countries, India and Pakistan, and was further reinforced by the appreciation of the national currency in 2026.

High levels of acute food insecurity persist in the south

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 2.12 million people, equivalent to 7 percent of the analysed population, are expected to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and above conditions between June and September 2026. Conditions are projected to deteriorate thereafter, with about 3.72 million people, or 11 percent of the analysed population, expected to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and above between October 2026 and February 2027, including nearly 426 000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

The number of people facing acute food insecurity is higher in 2026/27 compared to 2025/26, which partly reflects the broader geographic coverage of the latest IPC assessment. However, despite the increase in absolute numbers, the prevalence rate is projected at 11 percent, below the 19 percent recorded in 2025/26. This improvement is largely attributed to the recovery in paddy production and the easing of staple food prices, which broadly improved food availability and access.

Acute food insecurity is expected to remain particularly severe in southern areas. In Androy Region alone, about 775 400 people are projected to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and above conditions between October 2026 and February 2027. Acute food insecurity in the region is mainly driven by reduced agricultural production, depleted household food stocks, limited and irregular income‑earning opportunities, and the cumulative impact of recurring climate shocks on livelihoods. In addition, the prospect of El Niño‑related dry‑weather conditions later in the year poses a further threat to food security, given the potential adverse effects on crop production and household incomes in 2027.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/.

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/.

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .

Agmet EO Indicators by NASA Harvest and GEOGLAM Crop Monitor https://cropmonitortools.org/tools/agmet/ .