Reference Date: 01-October-2025

Cereal production in 2025 anticipated below average

Harvesting operations of the 2025 minor maize crop, accounting for about 25 percent of the annual production, are nearing completion. Production is estimated well below the average for the second consecutive year, due to the contraction in plantings, estimated at about 23 percent below average. Severe water shortages in reservoirs in the main producing Sinaloa State, where maize is almost entirely irrigated, hindered plantings.

The 2025 main maize crop is at vegetative and grain-filling stages, and harvest is expected to start in November. Large import amounts in 2023 and 2024 lowered domestic prices year-on-year, discouraging sowings. In addition, moderate dry weather conditions in parts of the main producing centralsouthern regions further curbed plantings, which are estimated at a below-average level. Below-average precipitation amounts are forecast in October and November, curbing yield prospects.

The harvest of the 2025 main sorghum crop, which accounts for about 55 percent of the annual production, concluded in August and its output is officially estimated at 2.1 million tonnes, about 13 percent below the average level. This is due to prolonged dry weather conditions in the main producing Tamaulipas State that reduced planted area and affected yields.

The minor season sorghum crop, to be harvested in November, is currently at development stage. Plantings are estimated at a below-average level due to high temperatures and localized torrential rains in the key producing Guanajuato and Michoacán states at planting stage from June to August 2025.

Record-low wheat plantings in Sonora Region due to dry conditions

Aggregate wheat production in 2025 is estimated below the average, about 34 percent below the previous year’s level. Record-low plantings were reported in the main producing Sonora Region, where prolonged drought conditions for the second consecutive year have severely limited the availability of irrigation water, hampering planting operations and significantly raising production costs.

Cereal import requirements in 2024/25 estimated above average

Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (October/September) are estimated at 31.8 million tonnes, about 23 percent above the previous five-year average, reflecting the high demand for yellow maize by the feeding sector and following the three consecutive years of below-average white maize production. In the 2025/26 marketing year, cereal import requirements are likely to decline, reflecting improved year-on-year prospects for maize domestic production, but remaining at above-average levels.

Prices of white maize, rice and black beans lower year-on-year in August

In August 2025, prices of white maize were mostly stable or declined seasonally across markets, reflecting the increased availability from the minor season harvest that concluded in July. Maize prices were mostly lower than the previous year, pressured by improved market supply from above-average imports.

Wholesale prices of black beans were stable or slightly increased month-on-month in August, reflecting the adequate supply across markets and were up to 22 percent lower than the year earlier, driven by ample availability from the good 2024 output, compounded by increased year-on-year import volumes.

Prices of rice in August remained stable month-on-month or weakened across markets, reflecting a moderate yearly increase in import volumes in the May to July 2025 trimester. On a yearly basis, rice prices were up to 18 percent lower across markets, driven by large availability after two consecutive years of above-average harvests.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .