Reference Date: 23-June-2026

Cereal production in 2026 forecast at above‑average level

Planting of the 2026 winter cereals, mainly wheat and barley, to be harvested between July and August, finalized in November 2025, while planting of the 2026 spring cereal started in mid‑April. Cumulative precipitation amounts from October to December 2025 were near the average levels in key cereal‑producing regions, improving soil moisture levels and boosting crop development.

Aggregate production of the 2025 cereal crops, which was completed in September 2025, is estimated at an above‑average level of 1.7 milllion tonnes, including over 900 000 tonnes of wheat and about 400 000 tonnes of maize.

Above‑average wheat imports requirements forecast in 2025/26 marketing year

Imports account for more than half of the domestic consumption needs of cereals, and wheat represents more than 90 percent of cereal imports. In the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June), wheat import requirements, including grains and flour, are forecast at an above‑average level of 1.35 million tonnes. During the last ten years, due to improved local milling capacities, imports of wheat grain have been increasing, while purchases of wheat flour have decreased by almost 90 percent.

Prices of wheat flour remained stable year‑on‑year as of March 2026

According to estimates made by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) , the gross domestic product (GDP) growth increased from 4.5 percent in 2025 to 6 percent in 2026, while the inflation rate increased from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4 percent in 2026.

National average prices of first grade wheat flour, a key staple, declined sharply between September 2024 and June 2025, then remained stable year‑on‑year, as of March 2026, due to the above‑average wheat harvest in 2025 and adequate import availability.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .