Reference Date: 07-September-2026

Cereal production estimated at above‑average level in 2026, supported by abundant seasonal rains

Harvesting of the 2026 winter wheat and barley has just been completed. According to the first official estimates, total cereal production in 2026 is estimated at 41.6 million tonnes, about 12 percent above the five‑year average, marking a significant rebound from the drought‑affected harvest in 2025. Wheat production is estimated at a record high of 22.8 million tonnes, about 16 percent above the average, while barley production is estimated at 9 million tonnes, about 20 percent above the five‑year average. Significantly above‑average precipitation amounts across all major producing regions during the January to May 2026 growing season provided favourable conditions for crop development and supported high yields. To support domestic cereal marketing and farmers’ incomes, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) increased procurement prices in June 2026 to TRY 16 500/tonne for bread and durum wheat and TRY 12 750/tonne for barley, up by about 23 percent and 16 percent, respectively, from the previous year.

Planting of the 2026 maize crop was completed by May and harvesting operations started in mid‑August. The harvest area is forecast to decline from the previous year, partly reflecting reduced plantings in water‑scarce areas and shifts towards less water‑intensive crops, including wheat, oilseeds and vegetables. Maize production is officially forecast at 8 million tonnes, close to the five‑year average and about 6 percent below the previous year’s output.

Cereal import requirements forecast at below‑average level in 2026/27 amid high domestic production in 2026

Cereal import requirements in the 2026/27 marketing year (June/May) are forecast at 13 million tonnes, about 8 percent below the five‑year average. Wheat import requirements are forecast at 7 million tonnes, about 13 percent below the average, largely reflecting the anticipated record‑high harvest in 2026. However, wheat imports are expected to increase slightly from the previous year, underpinned by sustained demand from the milling and processing industries for the production of wheat flour and pasta for export, particularly to markets in the Near East and Africa regions.

Cereal exports in the 2026/27 marketing year are forecast at about 5 million tonnes, nearly 23 percent below the five‑year average, but close to the previous year’s level. Wheat exports, which account for the bulk of cereal shipments, are preliminary forecast at 4.2 million tonnes, about 18 percent below the five‑year average but slightly higher than the 2025/26 level. The modest increase mainly reflects improved domestic wheat availability following the above‑average 2026 harvest.

Food inflation remains high in 2026

Annual food inflation remained elevated during the first half of 2026 and stood at about 38 percent in July. High production and distribution costs continued to exert upward pressure on food prices. According to the latest official data, the agricultural input price index (Agricultural-IPI) increased by about 37 percent year‑on‑year in May 2026, indicating persistently high production costs. Furthermore, the ongoing depreciation of the national currency increased import costs, with the Turkish lira weakening by about 15 percent against the United States dollar between July 2025 and July 2026. Against this backdrop, national average retail prices of wheat flour and rice in July 2026 were about 19 percent and 17 percent higher year‑on‑year, respectively.

High food prices and humanitarian funding shortfall constrain food access for Syrians under temporary protection in 2026

Food security conditions remain a concern among vulnerable refugee households amid persistently high living costs and limited income‑generating opportunities. According to the latest available data, the country hosted about 2.2 million Syrians under temporary protection as of early August 2026.

Humanitarian assistance continues to be constrained by funding shortfalls. By mid‑2026, food assistance had reached only about 40 percent of the annual target and, in the absence of additional funding, nearly 177 000 people are at risk of not receiving the planned support during the remainder of the year. Persistently high living costs, coupled with limited humanitarian assistance, are expected to further constrain food access among refugees and adversely affect their food security situation.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .