Reference Date: 17-July-2023

Below‑average 2023 first season cereal production forecast in bimodal rainfall areas

In bimodal rainfall areas covering most of the country, the 2023 first season harvest will be concluded in July and cereal production is forecast at below‑average levels. The first rainy season, which normally extends from March to June, was characterized by below‑average cumulative precipitation amounts in northern and southern cropping areas, and by an erratic temporal distribution. After a timely onset and above‑average precipitation amounts in March, prolonged dry spells in April and May severely constrained yields (Precipitation Anomaly map). Although above‑average rain amounts in June improved vegetation condition, most of the damage was irreversible and, according to FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI), as of mid‑June, severe drought conditions affected up to 85 percent of cropland in several northern, eastern and western districts (ASI map).

In late June, torrential rains in eastern Elgon Region triggered flash floods and landslides that affected over 20 000 people and resulted in loss of lives, damage to infrastructure and localized crop and livestock losses.

Reduced 2023 harvest expected in Karamoja Region

In the unimodal rainfall agropastoral Karamoja Region, harvesting of the 2023 crops will start in August and cereal production is expected at below‑average levels. Planted area was constrained by increased episodes of cattle raiding and ambushes by criminal groups in April and May, which limited the use of animal traction for cultivation and impeded access to land. The rainy season, which normally extends from April to September, had an early onset in mid‑March. The heavy unseasonal rains in March contributed to the regeneration of rangeland resources, but also caused floods and waterlogging, which hindered planting activities. Subsequently, precipitation was characterized by near‑average cumulative amounts, but its temporal distribution was erratic, with prolonged dry spells in April and May, which significantly affected vegetation condition and constrained yields.

According to the latest Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) weather forecast, below‑average precipitation amounts are expected until September over most of the region, with a likely negative impact on pasture conditions and cereal yields.

Prices of maize at record levels

In 2023, the national average price of maize increased by 20 percent between January and May, with seasonal patterns compounded by a fast depletion of stocks due to a drought‑reduced production in 2022. Prices in May were at record levels and about 10 percent higher than their very high year‑earlier values, with concerns over the performance of the 2023 first season harvest and sustained export demand exerting additional upward pressure.

Worsening food insecurity in Karamoja Region

In Karamoja Region, according to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 582 000 people are estimated to face severe acute food insecurity between April and August 2023. This figure includes 480 000 people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 102 000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) levels of acute food insecurity and it amounts to 45 percent of the analyzed population, compared to 25 percent between June and August of the previous year.

The significant deterioration of the food security situation during the last 12 months in Karamoja Region is mainly due to protracted insecurity that has caused livelihood losses and consecutive poor local harvests. In addition, below‑average cereal production in neighbouring surplus‑producing bimodal rainfall areas of the country in 2022 reduced the possibility to source cereals that are needed to fulfil the structural deficit of the region.

As of end‑June 2023, the country hosted more than 1.5 million refugees and asylum seekers, including about 883 000 people from South Sudan and about 495 000 people from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Most refugees and asylum seekers lack adequate access to livelihood opportunities and rely entirely on humanitarian assistance.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .