As inflation and high prices dampen demand in most segments of the fisheries sector, the humble pangasius finds itself in an ever more favourable position to expand its market reach. Demand for pangasius reached a fever pitch in the first half of 2022, with double-digit year-on-year import growth in the major markets of China and the United States of America pushing imports to significantly higher levels. Supply has since caught up somewhat with demand, bringing prices to a middle ground and putting the market into a more balanced state in the latter months of 2022.

Production

As the 2022 harvest season comes to an end in Viet Nam’s Mekong delta, where the vast majority of internationally traded pangasius is reared, supply has been able to accommodate much of the increased demand. Initial estimates from the Vietnamese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development indicate that 1.5 million tonnes were harvested, a 14 percent increase on 2021. High prices and government support are expected to encourage stocking for the 2023 harvest, which could see output grow by more than 10 percent in 2023. It is hoped that the sources of new demand that have been found will support this increased output and avoid harvests flooding the market.

Trade

Chinese demand for pangasius is back in full flow, with imports of close to 100 000 tonnes in the second quarter of 2022, the highest level on record. China is once again the main destination by volume for pangasius exports, having been briefly dethroned by the United States of America in 2021. Trade has been facilitated by a relaxation of COVID-19 import testing, while domestic demand for consumption and processing has also increased significantly.

Pangasius is proving to be increasingly popular in the United States of America and has improved its market share both in the higher end of the whitefish market as well as against other, more economical species, such as tilapia. Imports from Viet Nam stood at 76 000 tonnes in the first six months of 2022, a 35 percent increase on the same period of 2021. Amidst reports of reduced consumer spending on fish and fish products, demand for pangasius is expected to remain strong in what remains its most important market by value.

Prices

Despite high demand, prices have adjusted downwards in recent months; however, they remain significantly above January 2022 levels. Farmgate prices in Viet Nam peaked at VND 32 000 per kg (then USD 1.37 per kg) in August 2022 but have since levelled out at 28 000 VND per kg (USD 1.20 per kg). It is felt that this price level should be easier for the industry to sustain, as high prices were chiefly a result of the market overheating earlier in the year. Export prices have largely followed farmgate prices, with exports to the United States of America and China averaging USD 3.33 per kg and USD 2.30 per kg, respectively, in November 2022. Prices for exports to the European Union remained firm, rising slightly to USD 3.00 per kg.

Outlook

The adverse economic conditions of 2022 have accelerated demand for pangasius as consumers look to contain costs while distributors and major brands search for more economical alternatives to other white fish. The pangasius industry will be hoping that sustained high demand will be able to raise production to new thresholds without triggering the boom and bust cycle that has characterised previous periods of high growth. With harvest operations winding down towards the end of the year and prices stabilising at a relatively high level, the outlook for 2023 looks optimistic.