Early Warning
Four key points to any successful early warning system
An effective system should have at least four key components:
- a network of regular surveillance;
- rapid transmission of data from the field to decision-makers who should be able to access it easily;
- geo-referenced field data (i.e. data collected with GPS coordinates) should be fully managed and analyzed within a geographic information system (GIS);
- summaries, warnings and other outputs should be simple, clear and well-targeted for those who need early warning. Continue for more details on each of these components.
![10successful 10successful](/images/locustwatchlibraries/default-album/10successful.jpg?sfvrsn=237164fd_0)
The Desert Locust early warning system
![11countries](/images/locustwatchlibraries/default-album/11countries.jpg?sfvrsn=b9836283_1)
A network of linked national locust centres
![12googlegroup 12googlegroup](/images/locustwatchlibraries/default-album/12googlegroup.jpg?sfvrsn=b2016583_0)
The flow of data in the Desert Locust early warning system
![20infoflow 20infoflow](/images/locustwatchlibraries/default-album/20infoflow.jpg?sfvrsn=dc367b04_0)
Getting complete data from remote areas in real time
![21eLocust2 21eLocust2](/images/locustwatchlibraries/default-album/el3-suite8656ec332a294155b1dcb80f7a72293a.png?sfvrsn=216fad6b_0)
Data must be easily accessible by decision-makers
![22Internetaccess 22Internetaccess](/images/locustwatchlibraries/default-album/22internetaccess.jpg?sfvrsn=cbc22b17_0)
RAMSES: a geographic information system (GIS) used at National Locust Centres
![30GISramses 30GISramses](/images/locustwatchlibraries/default-album/ramsesa72a1fdf90664f028a0c22b3878c58f8.png?sfvrsn=bec38021_0)
SWARMS: a sophisticated GIS used operationally at FAO HQ for locust early warning
![31GISswarms 31GISswarms](/images/locustwatchlibraries/default-album/swarms.png?sfvrsn=c6f6a5e4_0)
Additional tools are used by FAO DLIS for analysis and forecasting
FAO DLIS relies on several specialized tools to supplement its analysis and forecasts. For example, a Trajectory Model (developed by NOAA HYSPLIT) estimates the source and destination of swarm migrations forward and backwards in time. Rainfall estimates and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery provided by IRI at Columbia University (USA) and EC Joint Research Centre (Italy) are used to understand where it has rain and where vegetation is green in the desert. Seasonal predictions of temperature and rainfall six months in advance are analyzed. Another model is used that estimates the developmental times of locust eggs and hoppers. The use of these tools in combination with the GIS allows the best possible analysis from which forecasts and early warnings can be issued.
![32trajectorymodel 32trajectorymodel](/images/locustwatchlibraries/default-album/32trajectorymodel.jpg?sfvrsn=22fbf177_0)
Well-targeted outputs must be simple and clear for early warning
![40outputs 40outputs](/images/locustwatchlibraries/default-album/informing-people.png?sfvrsn=3a0fa384_0)
Effective and reliable early warning must be sustainable and relies on everyone's cooperation
In addition to the four key components of an early warning system, there are several other aspects that should be considered within the context of an early warning program at the national level: (1) individuals should be energetic, curious and dedicated, (2) field teams need to be well trained in collecting, recording and transmitting data, (3) they also need to be well equipped and be given the tools to do so (GPS, vehicles), (4) financial support must be provided on a regular basis by the Government, (5) early warning has to develop into a routine activity, (6) everyone involved in early warning needs to receive feedback if they are expected to continue their efforts and maintain interest, and (7) it is the affected country that owns its data.
![40outputs 40outputs](/images/locustwatchlibraries/default-album/sust.png?sfvrsn=350ab06b_0)