World Agriculture:Towards 2010

Table of contents

An FAO Study
Edited by
Nikos Alexandratos

Published by the
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Chichester New York Brisbane - Toronto Singapore

Copyright © 1995 by FAO
Reprinted by FAO, 1995
Published in 1995 by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
and John Wiley & Sons Ltd,
Baffins Lane, Chichester,

West Sussex POI9 IUD, England
Telephone National Chichester (01243) 779777
International + 44 1243 779777

All rights reserved.

No part of this book may be reproduced by any means, or transmitted, or translated into a machine language without the written permission of the publisher.

The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

The designations 'developed' and 'developing' economies are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgement about the stage reached by a particular country, territory or area in the development process.

This title is also available in French (Agriculture mondiale: Horizon 2010, étude de la FAO Polytechnica, Paris and FAO, Rome, 1995) and Spanish (Agricultura mundial: hacia el año 2010. Estudio de la FAO, Mundi-Prensa Libros, Madrid and FAO, Rome, 1995).

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBNs 0-471-9537-8 (hbk)
92-5-103590-3 (pbk)

Typeset in 10/12pt Times by Dobbie Typesetting Limited, Tavistock, Devon

© 1995 by FAO


Explanatory Notes

Contributors to the Book

Foreword by the Director-General of FAO

Editor's Preface

Chapter 1: Overview

1.1 Focus on nutrition/food security and agricultural resources/sustainability
1.2 Prospective developments to year 2010
1.3 Factors in the growth of agriculture in developing countries
1.4 Further pressures on agricultural resources and the environment
1.5 Technological and other policies to minimize trade-offs between agricultural development and the environment
1.6 Forest sector prospects
1.7 Increasing resource constraints in fisheries
1.8 Policies for agriculture and rural development in developing countries
1.9 Emphasis on human resources development in developing countries
1.10 Concluding remarks

Chapter 2: Major themes in world food and agriculture at the beginning of the 1990s

2.1 The longer term historical evolution of the global population-food supply balance and food and nutrition in the developing countries
2.2 Developments in the more recent past
2.3 The developing countries: magnitude of the food problem and historical developments
2.4 Issues of agricultural resources, environment and sustainability

Chapter 3: World food and agriculture: A 20-year perspective

3.1 Introduction
3.2 Population growth and the overall economic growth outlook
3.3 Agriculture: prospective developments in aggregate production and demand
3.4 Prospective developments in food and nutrition
3.5 The developing countries: prospects by major commodity groups
3.6 The developed countries: prospective developments in brief
3.7 Possible developments in the agricultural trade balance of the developing countries
3.8 Issues of food-population balance beyond the year 2010

Chapter 4 :Growth of agricultural production in developing countries

4.1 Introduction
4.2 Agricultural land and irrigation
4.3 Land-yield combinations, major crops
4.4 Agricultural research and modern varieties
4.5 Fertilizers and plant protection agents
4.6 The livestock production

Chapter 5: Forestry

5.1 Introduction
5.2 Forest in land use
5.3 Forest production in the economy
5.4 Forest and the environment
5.5 Forests in sustainable development: future perspectives

Chapter 6:Fisheries

6.1 Introduction
6.2 Historical developments and present situation
6.3 Prospects for the future: production
6.4 Implications for consumption
6.5 Major policy issues for the future
6.6 Conclusions

Chapter 7 :Agricultural development in the economy-wide context: Approaches to policies and strategies

7.1 Introduction
7.2 Evolution of thinking on agriculture and development
7.3 Macroeconomic environment and agricultural growth
7.4 Policy reforms and agriculture: the role of price and non-price factors
7.5 Lessons and policy implications: short-run adjustments and long-term strategies

Chapter 8 :International trade issues and policies

8.1 Introduction
8.2 Policy adjustments affecting agricultural trade: major country groups
8.3 Global adjustments: the agreement on agriculture of the Uruguay round
8.4 Beyond the Uruguay round

Chapter 9: Agriculture and rural poverty

9.1 Introduction
9.2 Incidence of poverty
9.3 Rural poverty and agricultural growth
9.4 Interventions to improve access to land
9.5 Rural finance
9.6 Marketing
9.7 Selected direct anti-poverty interventions

Chapter 10 :Human resources development in agriculture: Developing country issues

10.1 Introduction
10.2 Magnitude of the task
10.3 Basic education and agriculture
10.4 Agricultural extension and training
10.5 Technical and professional education in agriculture

Chapter 11:Pressures on the environment from agriculture

11.1 Introduction
11.2 Pressures on land and water resources
11.3 Global change issues

Chapter 12: laying the technological foundation for sustained agricultural development

12.1 Introduction
12.2 Changing perceptions of technological development requirements in developing countries
12.3 Changing opportunities in the developed countries
12.4 Population pressure and technological change
12.5 The technological challenges of agricultural growth
12.6 A research agenda for a sustainable future

Chapter 13: Minimizing the trade-offs between the environment and agricultural development

13.1 Introduction
13.2 The north-south divide
13.3 A strategy for minimizing environment and development trade-offs
13.4 Minimizing specific trade-offs
13.5 The endpoint and the beginning


1. Countries and commodities classification
2. Methodology of quantitative analysis and the projections
3. Statistical tables