Walter Mwasaa raises important matters with regard to our understanding of resilience in social-ecological systems and the design and implementation of “resilience building” projects. My response comes from a complex systems perspective rather than a simple mechanistic system perspective.
The short answer to Walter’s question is that there cannot be a minimum time frame within which an individual, community or any kind of complex adaptive system remains resilient. Firstly, resilience is an emergent property of complex systems, which means that resilience changes constantly in relation to the interactions between the internal components of the system and larger system(s) within which it is embedded. The fit between those internal changes processes, and changes in the larger system will determine whether the individual or community: survives and recovers from the shock; expires because it does not have the capacity to adapt to that shock; or survives and changes in some significant way that enhances its capacity to survive future shocks.
Any short term outcomes that “build resilience” can only be short term, because we cannot predict how living beings will continue to grow and adapt and we cannot predict what kinds of shock might occur in the future. Complex systems are not predictable and require us to constantly learn and adapt as the world in which we live changes around us.
From a complex systems perspective, the idea that we can build resilience using short term mechanistic, economistic policies and projects is illogical because the underlying assumption of predictability is false. The outcome of the mismatch is that lots of money is being spent on doing the wrong thing by people who understandably yet illogically expect that resilience can be built in the same way as infrastructure and technology are built. The problem is that in industrial societies we still believe that scientific determinism will provide solutions to complex problems. Our approach to economics, the law and much of the practice of science management is based on the belief that complexity is reducible and ultimately predictable. There are no solutions to problems in complex systems in the sense that problems of math, physics and engineering can be solved. We can only learn and adapt to change as it occurs, or by learning the lessons of the past.
Walter Mwasaa raises important matters with regard to our understanding of resilience in social-ecological systems and the design and implementation of “resilience building” projects. My response comes from a complex systems perspective rather than a simple mechanistic system perspective.
The short answer to Walter’s question is that there cannot be a minimum time frame within which an individual, community or any kind of complex adaptive system remains resilient. Firstly, resilience is an emergent property of complex systems, which means that resilience changes constantly in relation to the interactions between the internal components of the system and larger system(s) within which it is embedded. The fit between those internal changes processes, and changes in the larger system will determine whether the individual or community: survives and recovers from the shock; expires because it does not have the capacity to adapt to that shock; or survives and changes in some significant way that enhances its capacity to survive future shocks.
Any short term outcomes that “build resilience” can only be short term, because we cannot predict how living beings will continue to grow and adapt and we cannot predict what kinds of shock might occur in the future. Complex systems are not predictable and require us to constantly learn and adapt as the world in which we live changes around us.
From a complex systems perspective, the idea that we can build resilience using short term mechanistic, economistic policies and projects is illogical because the underlying assumption of predictability is false. The outcome of the mismatch is that lots of money is being spent on doing the wrong thing by people who understandably yet illogically expect that resilience can be built in the same way as infrastructure and technology are built. The problem is that in industrial societies we still believe that scientific determinism will provide solutions to complex problems. Our approach to economics, the law and much of the practice of science management is based on the belief that complexity is reducible and ultimately predictable. There are no solutions to problems in complex systems in the sense that problems of math, physics and engineering can be solved. We can only learn and adapt to change as it occurs, or by learning the lessons of the past.
There is an interesting summary of the discussion about development resilience and social-ecological system resilience here http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol21/iss3/art40/