Alaskan authorities announced the cancellation of the Bering Sea snow crab fishery and the Bristol Bay red king crab fishery. The Alaskan crab industry will face an extreme challenge as a result.

Supplies

In October, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF & G) announced that it was suspending both the Bering Sea snow crab and the Bristol Bay red king crab fisheries this year. The industry has been left realing by the announcement. The reason given was “dwindling stocks”. Scientists have been left perplexed by the disappearance of billions of crabs from the region.

Already in September, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) warned that the population of mature male snow crabs had decreased by 22 percent from 2021. This was the lowest level at 5.6 million pounds (2 540 tonnes) in over 40 years. NMFS also warned that the Bristol Bay king crab autumn fishery might be suspended for the second consecutive year.

US wholesalers are rushing to Canadian suppliers to order crab from Canada. Before the conflict in Ukraine, wholesalers were buying Russian crab in the second half of the year and then switching to purchasing Alaskan snow crab in January. All of a sudden, both these options were gone. In 2022, the United States of America blocked imports of Russian fish and fishery products.

In 2021, the Russian Federation accounted for 29 percent (18 823 tonnes) of US snow crab imports. In 2022, US imports of Russian snow crab amounted to just 2 498 tonnes before the ban went into effect in June.

On the other side of the globe, the mood is more optimistic. The Norwegian fishing vessels operators’ organization Fiskebåt encouraged the Norwegian Seafood Council to initiate an MSC certification process for the Barents Sea snow crab fishery. An MSC certification would strengthen the position of Norwegian snow crab on the European market. Canada is the most important supplier to the European market, and a large part of the Canadian snow crab fishery is already MSC certified.

The Canadian Atlantic coast snow crab fishery performed well in 2022. A total of 50 068 tonnes was landed in the provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador by mid-September, with a first-sale value of CAD 759 million (USD 577 million). This represented an increase of 44 percent by volume and 22 percent by value compared to the same period in 2021. However, snow crab exports from the province declined from 48 million pounds (21 772 tonnes) in 2021 to 29 million pounds (13 200 tonnes) in 2022.

International trade

The global crab trade has been relatively stable over the past year. Total global imports increased by only 4.4 percent during the first half of 2022 compared to the first half of 2021, from 192 530 tonnes in 2021 to 200 961 tonnes in 2022. The leading importers were the United States of America (69 033 tonnes; 34.4 percent of the total), followed by China (40 658 tonnes; 20.2 percent of the total) and the Republic of Korea (23 867 tonnes; 11.9 percent of the total).

Snow crab prices in the United States of America increased dramatically during the middle of 2021. They stayed high until the second quarter of 2022 before falling to record-low levels. Gulf snow crab clusters rose from about USD 12 per pound in April 2021 to around USD 17 per pound in December 2021. Then, in March and April 2022, prices dropped again, decreasing further to hit the record low point in mid-July of about 6.8 per pound.

With the announcement of a closed snow crab fishery in Alaska for the 2022 season, prices should rise again, but so far, there have been few signs of a recovery in prices.

Norwegian exports of king crabs declined sharply during the first six months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021. Exports of frozen king crab dropped from 366 tonnes worth NOK 162.3 million (USD 16.2 million, fob Norway) in 2021 to 198 tonnes worth NOK 159.3 million (USD 15.9 million) in 2022. Thus, a massive price increase went from NOK 442.96 (USD 44.30) per kg in 2021 to NOK 803.66 (USD 80.30) per kg in 2022. The main markets for Norwegian king crab were the neighbouring countries of the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark.

Since January 2022, prices for blue swimming crab (Portunus pelagicus) meat from Southeast Asia have declined by 20 30 percent. However, prices were previously considered very high, and a decline was expected at some point. Since mid-2020, US import prices for blue swimming crab have risen spectacularly, from about USD 17 per kg in June 2020 to about USD 33 per kg in February 2022.

During the first six months of 2022, the United States of America imported 14 782 tonnes of blue swimming crab worth USD 470.8 million. This represented a 44 percent increase in volume and a 97 percent increase in value compared to the same period in 2021. During this period, Indonesia supplied 44 percent of total US imports of blue swimming crab.

US total crab imports stabilized at the 70 000-tonne mark for the first half of the year. Major suppliers were Canada (44 percent of the total), the Russian Federation (17 percent of total) and Indonesia (12 percent of total).

Chinese imports were also fairly stable, with just a 2.2 percent increase in volume from 2021 to 2022. The major suppliers were the Russian Federation (22 percent of the total), Myanmar (15 percent of total) and Indonesia (11 percent of total).
Chinese exports were just flat. There was a 0.1 percent decline in export volume during the first half of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, from 21 347 tonnes in 2021 to 21 325 tonnes in 2022. Major markets were the Republic of Korea (44 percent of the total), United States of America (16 percent of the total) and Malaysia (15 percent of the total).

Russian exports increased slightly more than other major suppliers during this period: up 7.7 percent from 33 980 tonnes during the first half of 2021 to 36 588 tonnes during the same period in 2022. Most of these exports ended up in three markets: the United States of America (11 643 tonnes; 31.8 percent of the total), the Republic of Korea (9 971 tonnes; 24.8 percent of the total) and China (8 861 tonnes; 24.2 percent of the total).

After being banned from western markets, Russian exporters are shifting their exports to the Republic of Korea. Russian crab exports to China have also suffered because of lockdowns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Chinese restrictions are still in force in many places.

The redirection of Russian crab exports to the Republic of Korea has resulted in plunging prices on the Korean market. Prices for live snow crab on the Noryangjin Fisheries Wholesale Market dropped from KRW 50 000 (USD 40.80) per kg in February to KRW 23 000 (USD 18.70) per kg at the end of March.

Outlook

While there will probably be a tighter supply situation for snow crab and king crab due to the cancellation of the Alaska fishery, no significant price increases are expected. This is mainly due to the very bleak economic outlook for most economies. Snow crab prices, which have been declining sharply this year, may level off and then rise again. King crab prices are still high and will most likely ease a bit.

Supplies from Canada (East Coast) and the Russian Federation may be more or less on par with 2021, and it is therefore expected that these countries will take over part of the market from the United States of America. But the Russian Federation cannot export to European countries for now.

The outlook is bleak for Alaskan producers and more “normal” for others.