Prices will most likely strengthen amidst strong demand and controlled production in Viet Nam.

Global production of pangasius in 2012 will most likely show a slow-down resulting from the various problems faced by the industry in Viet Nam, the world’s largest producer. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reports that increased production and development of farming areas in 2013 will not be encouraged but rather the aim will be to address the persistent problems and to enhance efficient and sustainable development.  Imports into the USA continued to grow although at a slower pace, while on the whole the EU imported less. Demand in Southeast Asian countries remains stable while imports are growing in the Latin American region.

Viet Nam

The Viet Nam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) predicted that the production of pangasius in 2013 will decrease to below one million tonnes and be around 800 000 tonnes, resulting in a lower export turnover to around  USD 1.5 billion. The country has around 300 exporters but only 70 of them have processing facilities. Industry sources report that the current market price for pangasius is below ex-farm prices and is still going down.

According to data releases by VASEP, for the period from January to December 2012 Viet Nam’s total export value for pangasius declined to USD 1.7 billion, down 3.4% from 2011. The EU remained as the largest market taking a 24.4% share of the exports, valued at USD 426 million, although it imported less than a year ago. The value of pangasius exports declined to most markets except to the USA, Malaysia, Hong Kong SAR and China.

A deputy director of the Viet Nam Directorate of Fisheries said recently that efforts were being made to ensure that the high standards of production expected by the market were being implemented. He also indicated that research was being undertaken to improve the quality of juveniles, feed and production, and in particular, farmers are being encouraged to aim for Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC) certification. 

USA

USA frozen catfish imports were higher in 2012, reaching slightly over 100 000 tonnes up 10% from 2011. Imports of frozen pangasius fillet from other suppliers such as China and Thailand declined significantly but increased from Viet Nam. This was in spite of serious problems within the pangasius industry, including a drop in the number of processors by 30%. The USA remains the single largest country market for Vietnamese pangasius, if the EU is regarded as being made up of a number of different countries.
Domestic catfish

The Mississippi Republican Senators Thad Cochran and Roger Wicker have joined lawmakers from other catfish-producing states in calling from more action to stop the volume of imported fish products. The senators urged the Department of Commerce to enforce an anti-dumping order on frozen catfish fillets from Viet Nam. The senators say that the lack of action has resulted in a surge of low-priced imports, which they regard as being in direct competition with local catfish. American companies deserve a level playing field, they maintain. Vietnamese supplies have tripled since 2008 and now account for more than 75% of the US market, and 96% of imports.

EU

Eurostat reports that in 2012 the EU imported 22% less pangasius than a year ago totalling 143 200 tonnes at a value of USD 376 million, down 24% from 2011.  The average import price also weakened by 2.4% to USD 2.63/kg in 2012. The largest markets in the EU were Spain, the Netherlands, Poland and Germany; all of them experienced declines in imports from Viet Nam. However, several markets within the EU showed positive growth; these are Belgium, Greece and Latvia.
Although imports into the German market declined in 2012, pangasius remains popular among consumers. It is the fifth most consumed fish in Germany. Recently pangasius products bearing ASC certification have been available on the market. The certification recognises farms that subscribe to farming in a responsible and environmentally friendly manner. The first pangasius products to obtain the ASC label come from 13 certified farms in the Mekong Delta area in Viet Nam. Together they are responsible for 10% of total production. Products with this label are now available in many supermarkets across Germany. Brands and companies, such as Topsea, Frosta, Femeg, Queens and Profish, offer pangasius products with the ASC logo. Germany imported 19 245 tonnes of pangasius fillet in 2012 from Viet Nam alone.

Asia

Demand for pangasius remains stable throughout Asia.  Supplies come from domestic production and through imports, both of which have been on an upward path.  In India, demand for basa catfish in the domestic market is growing. Increasing imports from Viet Nam are complementing local harvests to satisfy this demand. In 2012 India imported close to 4 000 tonnes of frozen fillets from Viet Nam, mostly basa. In the first eleven months of 2012 Malaysia imported a total of 10 466 tonnes of frozen pangasius fillets from Viet Nam at an average import price of USD 1.92/kg. Pangasius is now popular in the Malaysian catering and household sectors. Frozen and glazed pangasius fillets currently sell at USD 3.6/kg in local supermarkets.

Latin America

On average, Latin America imports annually about 50 000 tonnes of pangasius fillet from Viet Nam, with Brazil being the largest single market. Traders anticipate a shortage in supply of croaker to meet the increasing demand for the remainder of the Lent period; however this  will probably be fulfilled by imports of farmed fish (largely pangasius) and local tilapia. In 2012 Brazil imported about 32 000 tonnes of pangasius fillet from Viet Nam.

Outlook

While Viet Nam seeks to bring more efficiency and stability to the production of pangasius in 2013, demand will remain firm particularly in Asia and Latin America. Strengthening prices are expected as a result of lower supply from Viet Nam. Nevertheless pangasius remains an affordable choice.