Supplies of Atlantic herring are relatively stable as of this writing, after they experienced a drop in 2014. The expected trend is for reduced global supplies in 2016, with corresponding pressure on prices. Indeed, total Atlantic herring supplies of just under 1.5 million tonnes are predicted for 2016, as compared with about 1.8 million tonnes in 2013. Looking at more recent years, in 2014 and 2015, Atlantic herring supplies dropped to between 1.55-1.6 million tonnes. 2016 quotas are expected be under 1.5 million tonnes.

Bad weather influenced the North Sea herring fishery in the beginning of the year, but large amounts of herring have been registered by vessels covering the area. At the end of January, Norwegian purse seiners reported good catches along the Norwegian coast. The catch doubled compared to the same time in 2015. 

Trade

Norwegian herring exports fell 28% by volume and 12% by value. Again, there were significant reductions in shipments to the major markets: exports to Ukraine fell by 28% to 25 300 tonnes, while exports to Lithuania fell by 38.6% to 15 900 tonnes. In contrast, there was a massive increase in exports to Egypt (+268%) and to Kazakhstan (+87%).

During the first two months of 2016, Norwegian herring exports increased by 59.4% (by volume) and mackerel exports increased by 36.0% (by volume). At the same time, prices for both species increased. Norwegian fob export prices for herring were up by 18%, and mackerel export prices were up by almost 3% during this period (Source: Norwegian Seafood Council).

Supplies of frozen herring to the EU market from the major suppliers (Norway, Iceland and the Faroe Islands) were reduced in 2014 and 2015. In 2011, supplies from these countries reached almost 90 000 tonnes, then dropped to about 87 000 tonnes in 2013, and to under 50 000 tonnes in 2015. The main supplier has been Norway, which in 2015 accounted for roughly 80% of shipments from these three countries. There has been a similar development for supplies of frozen herring fillets from these three suppliers.

Dutch exports of frozen herring fell by 24% in 2015 compared with 2014. There were large reductions in shipments to the two largest markets, Nigeria (-33.9%) and Egypt (-30.6), and a dramatic decline in shipments to China (-68.8%).

German imports of frozen herring fillets dropped in 2015, by almost 20% to 15 100 tonnes. This is less than half of the volume imported in 2012, when imports of this product stood at 31 200 tonnes.
Japanese imports of fresh and frozen herring in 2015 fell by almost 23%, from 34 100 tonnes in 2014 to 26 300 tonnes in 2015. The main supplier, the USA, saw the largest reduction (-25%).
African imports of frozen herring from Europe (the EU, Norway, Iceland and the Faroe Islands) have been relatively stable at around 150 000 tonnes over the past five years. There was a marked increase in trade in 2014, when shipments from Europe jumped to over 200 000 tonnes, but then fell to just over 140 000 tonnes in 2015.

The Russian embargo continues to have a serious effect on Atlantic herring trade, but the main suppliers are finding other markets. The Faroe Islands and Greenland have taken over part of this trade from Norway and Ireland, but total Russian imports of frozen herring have been reduced by over 60%. Imports of herring fillets were reduced from about 40 000 tonnes in 2014 to just over 15 000 tonnes in 2015.

Prices

Herring prices in Europe have firmed as a result of lower catches in the North Sea. Demand for herring, both from consumers and from processors, is currently strong, and consequently prices have increased. Prices for frozen herring fillets, which have been on a declining trend from the beginning of 2012, have demonstrated massive growth since the end of 2014. However, part of this development is caused by the weakening of the Norwegian krone against other currencies.

The average Norwegian fob export prices for herring (all product forms) increased by 22.2% in 2015. This trend continued into 2016. During the first two months, the average fob export price for herring increased by 18.3%.

The North Atlantic Seafood Forum in Bergen, Norway reported that in some markets, high herring prices are becoming a problem. Processors claim they cannot increase prices to consumers in spite of higher raw material prices, as consumers would just not accept these price hikes.